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Wally Fairway

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Posts posted by Wally Fairway

  1. 2 hours ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

    Is the (-) sign not showing up?

    that's what I get from trying to post from my phone while trying to run a couple of errands for my son. I should never commit to being away from my 'puter on expiration eve.

    and here is my next question - if that happened on the eve of the May contract expiring, what happens tomorrow when the actually expire? Does the surly collective think that most people closed out their position today, or is there an even bigger fireworks show tomorrow?

    I guess this is another website I'll have to follow
    https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts

    Closing-oil-prices-4-20-2020

    • Like 1
  2. This is why I tell people if you are trading options, you can't afford to hold them to expiration. Especially uncovered options, sell those options even for pennies, because if they gain value at close then you could be on the hook (margin) for exercise and costs associated.

  3. 2 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

    Yea, wtf on XOP!?  As of this moment, oil is down 43% and XOP is up 3.26%.

    WTI is down over 40%, Brent is down 6%, nat gas is up 2% - I get that WTI is, likely, futures expiration related, but still - I sold my XOP for about a 14% gain, I'll look to back in again once this settle out a little bit more. I also made a few buck playing with OXY puts when the big OPEC induced drop hit, and the stock price ahs normalizedc which I just don't get with the crushing debt-load they took on to buy Anadarko.

     

  4. 7 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:

    Hear you on the "prison gym" - Also the Army has locked all personnel stateside in place until June 30, if I understand it correctly.  Saw my son this past weekend and their gym equipment consists of a pull up bar.  Thoughts and prayers for your son and all of our troops in harms way.

    Motorpool pull up "rIngs "

    pull-up-rings

    • Like 1
  5. How is XOP up today?
    I must not understand the O&G market, because with the price crashing I assumed it would impact XOP.
    I'm close to selling my XOP, because:
    a) I'm up 
    b) If I don't understand it, I shouldn't own it
    c) WTI is under $12, Brent is at $26 - storage limitation? 
    d) is this an expiring contracts issue (May futures for WTI expire tomorrow)?

     

  6. 3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

     

    Thus my question.  Seems like bad stewardship, but pension funds have been doing that for a while now.

    Today, a defined benefit pension seems like a really bad idea, but they were the standard retirement plan for quite some time.  Did they ever really work or were they always a Ponzi scheme?

    I don't think they were a Ponzi scheme, I just don't think they understood the population that they served.
    Actuaries were far to slow to realize that life expectancy was growing, and it was growing faster then they could ever catch up with. And it was a double edged sword that was causing these problems, because the cause was driven by the retiree medical benefits that companies/gov't entities also paid. 
    And when healthcare was able to deliver live extending medicine (heart surgery, cancer treatments, etc) then the pension/health care providers were now on the hook for much longer periods of time and at higher costs than ever expected, nor did the actuaries see it coming.

    Anectodal proof - my dad "scammed" his way into a full county gov't pension, at age 82 he had triple bypass surgery and has survived until today. That is almost 7 years of pension and much higher medical costs, and it all get rolled into the underfunding of that counties pension and medical coverage (well not underfunded, because I don't think healthcare costs are prefunded like pensions).
    His father had a heart attack when he was 58, and died 1 day later in the hospital - that heart attack today would have likely been treated and he'd have been up and around for years to come. He would have likely been around long enough that I would have remembered him, but it wasn't so I have no memory of my grandfather who died shortly after I turned 2. 

  7. 5 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

    Was swamped Friday but I did get into some energy names.  OKE, Exxon, chevron - May get dinged more in short term but as 10 year plays and those dividends, kind of a no brainer.  
     

    We will definitely see some pullback.  Question is when?  

    I hated trying to pick individual winners, do I opened a position in XOP

  8. Here is a sign that the market is likely to rise - short interest is a the highest level in years

    WSJ article  https://www.wsj.com/articles/bets-against-the-stock-market-rise-to-highest-level-in-years-11587288601

    Quote

    Short sellers have revived their wagers against the stock market in recent weeks, taking their most aggressive positions in years.

    Bets against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the broad index, rose to $68.1 billion last week, the highest level in data going back to January 2016, according to financial analytics company S3 Partners. That was up from $41.7 billion at the beginning of 2020 and $41.2 billion a year ago.

    Spoiler

    Short sellers have revived their wagers against the stock market in recent weeks, taking their most aggressive positions in years.

    Bets against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust, the biggest exchange-traded fund tracking the broad index, rose to $68.1 billion last week, the highest level in data going back to January 2016, according to financial analytics company S3 Partners. That was up from $41.7 billion at the beginning of 2020 and $41.2 billion a year ago.

    Short sellers borrow shares and sell them, hoping to repurchase them at lower prices and keep the difference as profit. Among the individual companies they have targeted in recent weeks are travel-related firms, including Carnival Corp., CCL 5.99% Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., RCL 9.94% Marriott International Inc. MAR 4.81% and Wynn Resorts Ltd. WYNN 8.54%

    Hedging Your BetsBets against the SPY ETF, which tracks theS&P 500, have jumped in 2020.SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust short interestSource: S3 Partners
    .billion2016’17’18’19’200102030405060$70

    Those bets come during a wild year for investors who are struggling to reconcile the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the population and economy. The S&P 500 suffered its fastest drop from a record to a bear market in history—ultimately falling 34% between Feb. 19 and March 23. Its 28% rebound since then has also been brisk, leaving some investors anxious about the strength of the rally when so much remains unknown.

     

    “We’ve really seen a significant bounceback in the last three weeks at levels that I think are too quick,” said Jerry Braakman, chief investment officer at First American Trust. His firm recently bet against the Nasdaq-100, on the belief that technology stocks have fallen too little to reflect the probability of a recession. The index is up 1.1% in 2020.

    “When we see a strong move in one direction, where we think the fundamentals and the news can turn ugly, especially during an earnings cycle, we think that’s an opportunity where we could see a 5, 10% selloff again,” he said.

    Investors are bracing for the possibility of more volatility this week, as earnings reports from companies including Coca-Cola Co., Netflix Inc. and Delta Air Lines Inc. give another glimpse at how the coronavirus is reshaping the landscape for U.S. business.

    New EraPerformance since S&P 500 record on Feb. 19Source: FactSet
    %CloroxInvesco QQQ Trust Series ISPDR S&P 500 ETF TrustMarriottMarch 2March 16March 30April 13-60-50-40-30-20-1001020

    The outsize market swings of late require vigilance from investors who sell shares short because they can face losses when prices rise. Short sellers incurred total mark-to-market losses of $108.8 billion over three days in late March when the S&P 500 surged 18%, according to Ihor Dusaniwsky, head of predictive analytics at S3 Partners.

    But with the potential for additional declines ahead, many investors have decided that the ability to hedge their portfolios—or simply bet on a selloff—is wise.

    “Things will go back to normal eventually and these positions will decrease but not until we start seeing less volatility in the market,” Mr. Dusaniwsky said of the rise in short positions against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust. “No one’s going to give up their insurance until they see the chances of catastrophe are in the rearview mirror.”

    The portion of available shares sold short against the SPDR S&P 500 Trust has also risen, climbing to 27% in early April, the highest level since November 2016 and up from 14% at the beginning of 2020.

    The increase in bets against the market coincides with a push in other countries to temporarily curb short selling. At times of heightened volatility, critics often argue that the practice exacerbates downward pressure on stock prices. But Jay Clayton, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, has argued short selling is needed to facilitate ordinary market trading.

    On the RiseThe percentage of available shares of the SPYETF, which tracks the S&P 500, that are soldshort has risen in recent months.SPY short interest as a percentage of floatSource: S3 Partners
    %2016’17’18’19’2005101520253035

    To be sure, coronavirus has upended entire industries in recent weeks, leaving investors scrambling to reassess the growth prospects of companies from Marriott to Clorox Co. to Amazon.com Inc. to Carnival.

    With the pandemic devastating global travel, hotel, casino and cruise stocks have been among the hardest hit—and seen some of the biggest additions to the short positions against them.

    Many hotels and casinos temporarily closed their doors when demand evaporated, furloughing employees and curbing spending plans, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has extended a no-sail order for cruises into July.

    Short sellers have added a collective $797 million to their short positions against Carnival, Royal Caribbean, Marriott and Wynn over the past 30 days, according to data Friday from S3 Partners.

    Betting Against Travel30-day change in value of shares shortedSource: S3 Partners
    CarnivalRoyalCaribbeanCruisesMarriottInternationalWynnResorts$0 million$100$200$300

    Alex Lee, a San Francisco resident who manages a family sandwich shop in Oakland, Calif., and his wife had previously dabbled in short selling but have recently devoted more attention there. They made bets against Marriott, along with other stocks.

    “Because of Marriott’s price at the time, it seemed like it had more room to fall and because of its heavy presence in Europe and the United States, we just thought that that company itself would be more vulnerable to falling more,” he said.

    Over two rounds of shorting Marriott stock in March and April, they made a profit of about $15,000, Mr. Lee said. Marriott recently said about 25% of its hotels are temporarily closed, and North American occupancy levels are around 10%. Its shares are down 44% this year.

    White House Outlines Three Phases to Restart Economy
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    White House Outlines Three Phases to Restart Economy
    White House Outlines Three Phases to Restart Economy
    President Trump outlined new federal guidelines on Thursday to reopen the country, saying governors should take a “phased and deliberate approach” to restart their state economies. Photo: William Volcov/Zuma Press

    Among the stocks that saw big drops in short positioning in March were stodgy consumer-staples shares, which got a bounce as Americans stocked their pantries to wait out the pandemic at home.

    “We had a lifetime of trading in the month of March,” said Mitch Rubin, chief investment officer at RiverPark Funds. He said he had previously bet against shares of Kroger Co., Walmart Inc., Clorox and Campbell Soup Co. but covered those positions in late February and early March as it became clear those companies would perform well with consumers sheltering in place.

    “Their business is healthier than it was before the crisis because the demand for their products has increased,” he said. “The amount of times you clean high-touch surfaces with a chemical disinfectant is going to go up for some period of time, maybe for the rest of our lives.”

     

    Write to Karen Langley at karen.langley@wsj.com

     

  9. 3 hours ago, Hawndoh said:

    If I ever paid more than 20 for a haircut I would punch myself in the nuts.

     

    I go to a shop where the owner has the first chair and there are 3 other guys who split the other 2 chairs. 
    I plan on paying the owner $100 for my next haircut, and the other guys at least $20 for a non-haircut tip.
    Because I can afford it, they all give a decent haircut, and I don't want to have to find a new barbershop.

    • Like 1
  10. day-to-day I'm actually saving money, because working from home, no restaurants, etc
    retirement, I'm trying to mitigate losses in IRA/401k but still down about 5-7% - so not horrible

    my oldest daughter is married to a truck driver, so he is busy, she is isolating with 3 young kids
    my son is deployed in Iraq, and they have started to isolate - so chowhall is to go orders only, no social or physical fitness activities, only work (motorpool) and barracks
    younger daughter graduated college in 05/19, job is on permanent furlough, likely not going back - it will actually give her a chance to reset, but she can't see it that way
    youngest, son, is home from college 2nd year and hating it, bored to death, classes end next week....then what?

    All-in-all we are doing better than many and are thankful for what we have, and trying to help those near us 

    • Like 1
  11. 4 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

    Along the lines of the Fed propping up the markets; a wise man once said "A whore can only seek refuge under the protection of her pimp for so long."

    That's where we are.

    The difference is that the market can be wrong for a long time and it is expensive to bet against it. You can be right about a stock, or the market, and lose at lot (maybe everything) while the run continues, or before the bubble bursts.

    Y'all might be too young, but that's what happened with LTCM when they nearly caused a market failure leading to a NYFed backed bailout to save a global financial collapse.

    http://www.investmentreview.com/print-archives/winter-1999/the-story-of-long-term-capital-management-752/

  12. So after a month we spend a little more on utilities, groceries, beer and liquor 

     

    I'm lucky in that both Mrs Fairway & I are working from home, my 2 youngest kids are living with us one back from his 2nd year at college, the other laid off from her job. And yes retirement accounts have taken a hit, but I've seen that before (1987 crash, dot.com bust, and banking/CMO hear recession) so I believe it will come back. Maybe we will learn to spend a little less going forward.

    • Like 1
  13. 3 hours ago, Blotto said:

    I didnt straddle for Monday and instead just chose to drop half my profits from today's straddle only on Monday puts (285 strike). Probably guarantees another big run up, so plan accordingly and profit from my dumbassery.

    Bold move cotton Memes

    • Like 1
  14. Quite the debate I'm having with myself today:

    Head - market correction seems unstoppable, brrrrrr machine, rona news machine turned to upside, market has already priced in bad news, you can't beat the hype machine
    Gut - opportunity to buy puts at favorable prices, inevitable rona 2nd wave resurgence, lows will be tested by June

    Investment account - WTF are you doing?

    #stonklife

  15. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/sp-500-etf-jumps-2percent-after-hours-on-report-gilead-drug-showing-effectiveness-treating-coronavirus.html

    Quote

    U.S. stock futures surged on Thursday night after a report said a Gilead Sciences drug was showing effectiveness in treating the coronavirus. The move pointed to a jump for the stock market on Friday.

    Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 700 points, or about 3%. S&P 500 futures gained 2.8% while Nasdaq 100 futures were up by 1.8%.

     

    Gilead shares jumped by 14% in after-hours trading after STAT news reported that a Chicago hospital treating coronavirus patients with Remdesivir in a trial were recovering rapidly from severe symptoms. The publication cited a video it obtained where the trial results were discussed.

     

    • Like 1
  16. 2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

    What was the range today?  Was there money to be made sitting on a straddle?  I picked one up right before close and will prob right another over the weekend. 

    $275.76 - $280.03, closed at $279.10 and next day options are running about.
    A 4/17/20  $279 or $280 spread would cost about $4.64 - $4.67, so you have to get in/out at the low/high for the day to make anything. 
    You could look at a 4/17 straddle of P $277 for $1.50 and C $281 for $1.45 - but you'd have to see SPY at $274 or $285 to make a profit, unless it swings and you can sell one for a profit bigger than the other side losses. 

    A 4/24/20 straddle, for which you are paying up for more time/theta (a soul stealing bitch) would be like P $273 for $4.10 (pricey on the put side) and C $284 for $3.55 - so you'd need a move to $266.50 or $291.50 to profit at expiration, but it gives you 8 days to see movement and reduce holdings along the way but that could be a pretty wide spread that SPY doesn't cross and theta will fuck you in the next week.
    The options market is still pricier on the downside than on the upside, even with solid run since 3/24. 

  17. All it took was for Surly #stonk players to start straddles and poof the market settles away from big swings, though options are still pricier than they were in Feb.
    So I've started to look at 5-7 straddles, you can get in at much lower prices but you give up a balanced price point and are playing for consistent up or down price swings within that timeframe. 
    Right now I've got some on both SPY and DIS - both lean to the down side, so I'm sure the brrrr machine will zero out any value in it.

  18. 23 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

    Usually markets are considered getting a bit ahead of themselves when price is ~5% above the 20 day moving average.  QQQ is 11% above the 20 dma now.

    I'd hardly call these usual times or markets, then again I'm not a big market technician

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