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Wally Fairway

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Posts posted by Wally Fairway

  1. On 4/15/2020 at 1:27 PM, NeverMarryAStripper said:

    There probably won't be any high school football either.  The players will still graduate, but they'll all be coming off a year long break from football.  Maybe just go back to the old system where freshman are not eligible for the varsity and just spend a year working out and practicing 

    Or extend another red shirt year in college - allow them 6 years to play 4 (excluding the 3 or 4 games allowed that you keep the red shirt)

  2. 18 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


     

     


    There are over 15 million filed unemployment claims and who knows how many more that haven't been able to file. The economic downturn is here - recession, depression, whatever you want to call it. Quarterly economic contraction used to define that is a lagging indicator. It can't be avoided. It will be worse the more widespread this pandemic is.

    There is no realistic way to effectively quarantine the more vulnerable while the rest of society goes about its business. That's not a serious solution.

     

    Those that are going to die, are going to die
    Move along and let me get a haircut, go to the bar, the ball game and get my kids back to school (and outta my house)

    • Like 2
  3. Make your guess for tomorrows first time unemployment claims and how the market will be affected (how will it open)

    5.8 million first time claims - market S&P opens up 25-40 points (market has already taken that into account)

  4. 19 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

    As long as you can afford it, that’s a solid play.  Someone showed a graph of economy losing 6Tr vs fed infusion...numbers have you in right side but it ain’t easy being a bear these days.  

    Wrong

    Obv, the correct answer is "that's already baked into the market pricing"

  5. DIS - hasn't cut dividends (next declaration date is end of June), per DIS reports they have 4 segments - 
    - Parks experiences & products - all parks are closed, no reopen date (Disneyland, DisneyWorld, Tokyo Disney, Paris DIsney, Hong Kong Disney, Shanghai Disney all closed)
    - Media Networks - ESPN, Disney channel, ABC, FX, National Geographic, Freeform - ESPN has to be hurting, no idea about the other channels
    - Studio Experience - movies, Marvel, Disney, Pixar, Blue Sky, 20th Century, Serchlight - I think all movie production has been halted, and film release delay until theater reopen
    - Direct to Customer - Disney+, ESPN+, hulu, hostar - this one seems to be doing well, but it can't offset parks, movies and ESPN

    I've got my finger on the trigger of 7/17 $110 puts at $12 (current price about $105.50), looking that long to allow the daily Fed pump, market enthusiasm time to dissipate.
    So Surly - pull the #stonk trigger or is it Don Quixote tilting against the fed?

  6. 3 hours ago, Captainant said:

    This market IS overpriced right now. I don't understand how there's any expectation of normal capital flow for consumers, renters, and mortgage holders to return within the next half year. The money machine can only BRRRRRR for so long, nevermind that those funds aren't actually going into the consumption cycle which is what we need to keep the economic pump primed

     

    36 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

    The Nasdaq is where it was in September / October of 2019. 
    Anyone feel as warm and fuzzy as they did half a year ago?

    Nuts. I know the fed just printed a lot of money... but Christ. We are back to 6 months ago after shutting down the economy for a month. The whole thing. 
     

    People thought the market was over priced 6 months ago, and it was going pretty strong until it caught a virus

     

  7. 24 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

    We keep talking about the economy being shut down for a whole month.  What had actually been shut down?

    Depends where you are - in many states it is all restaurants (excluding take out), personal services (hair cuts/salons, tattoo shops, etc), anything deemed to be non-essential - florists, clothing, cruise ships, amusement parks, social gatherings over 10 people, so bars, churches, sporting events, all schools, movie theaters, fitness centers - just to name a few. 
    Also elective surgery, funeral homes cannot hold memorial services (except for immediate family less than 10 people, maybe some exceptions) air travel is down 90+%, casinos are closed, farms are struggling to get crops picked (due to limited movement of farm workers), in some states construction work (unless on an essential project/industry)
    Those a just the things off the top of my head

  8. 56 minutes ago, Blotto said:

    Well my strategy of blindly buying straddles on SPY didnt pay off over the weekend as the market was relatively calm compared to the last couple of weeks. Lost about 15% on the overall trade as I sold the puts early enough in the day that I didn't get burned too badly by the afternoon rally. Will probably be a bit more selective on when I choose to buy straddles (weekends) on the major indexes. On the flip side, earnings calls may start to juice things up a bit, and the same approach with individuals companies seems to have some potential as well. 

    Yup - I has a straddle at $280, sold have the puts at $7 then watched the rest of it slip away to around $4 and the loss on the calls made it a small loss; sitting on a DIS $108 straddle that I picked up on Thursday - slightly profitable right now, and its amazing to me that DIS isn't falling with parks, Cruise ships and ESPN all closed for business, like Disney+ can keep the company going.
    I'm sure there are profits to be made tomorrow, as I'm not sitting on any spreads, straddles or strangles with that date. 

     

  9. CNN has an interview with Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson, he explains their targeted approach and defends the state not issuing a stay-at-home order. He claims they been 

    Quote
    "We have masks and social distancing and the people of Arkansas have embraced that. That gives you success," Hutchinson said, adding later, "We want to take the long-term approach to this and you're not going to win simply by a lockdown."
    Asked if other states have made a mistake in issuing stay-at-home orders, Hutchinson replied, "Not at all. It just reflects the flexibility a state needs. I applaud New Jersey and New York. They've had to really lock down."
    Hutchinson announced on March 11 that Arkansas had its first confirmed case of coronavirus.
    As of Sunday morning, the state currently has more than 1,200 cases and at least 25 deaths, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University.
    With only 80 hospitalizations among 8,000 available hospital beds, Hutchinson told CNN that the state is "beating that trend line" of projected Covid-19 deaths, and "at least flat," if not at the peak of cases.
    "There's a lot of hope and optimism this Easter that our tough time is behind and we're going to be getting better," the governor said.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/12/politics/arkansas-governor-no-stay-at-home-order-coronavirus-cnntv/index.html

    Godspeed with this Arkansas; I'm skeptical that the future of the nation may res ton Razorback nation.
    NSIAP

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