I have watched Indiana a bunch this year. They are a very good football team: well coached, very disciplined, very experienced. They have 15 or so senior starters on offense and defense. They have 20 transfer players in the 2-deep. Last season is irrelevant to this IU team, fwiw (not that you are saying that).
I believe the spread will be tOSU -14. I alluded to this earlier, but I have a gut feel that tOSU will beat the spread, because of difference in athleticism and home-field. Perhaps I am giving too mich credit to that.
Now - after thinking about it more, I can see it being closer and/or seeing an IU win. First, Cignetti is a very good coach; IMO better than Day. Second, IU does not make a lot of mistakes - they have 7 turnovers all year. 3rd, the discipline and experience should pay off. 4th, you can always count on Will Howard to shoot himself in the foot against good competition.
I want an IU win, and big, btw.