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Forde-Yard Dash: Herman Still Has a Long Way to Go Before Texas Is Back
It’s been all about Baylor in the Lone Star State this season, as the Longhorns find themselves in the midst of another middling season.
PAT FORDE
NOV 19, 2019
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (heart medicine sold separately in Ames, where five out of 10 games have been decided by three points or less):
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FOURTH QUARTER
WE HAVE THIS UPDATE: TEXAS IS NOT BACK
Beware the fan base that reads too much into a non-playoff bowl victory. When Texas (31) handled a sulking Georgia team last year in the Sugar Bowl, a fan base exhausted by a decade-long malaise went ahead and proclaimed it: the Longhorns would be back as a national power in 2019. The Top 25 voters, addicted to brand names, bought in, ranked them in the top 10 entering the season despite significant losses on defense.
Everyone was, once again, wrong. Texas is not back, not close to back, and there is no reason to believe it will be back until proving it in games that actually matter.
After losing to Iowa State Saturday, the Longhorns are a pedestrian 6–4 and a pedestrian 4–3 in the Big 12. They are 23–14 overall under Tom Herman (32), and 16–10 in the league. While that is certainly an improvement over the Charlie Strong body of work (16–21, 12–15 Big 12), it is nearly identical to the last three seasons under Mack Brown (33), which were considered major disappointments. Brown was 25–14 overall, 16–11 in the league.
It also puts Herman pretty much in line with the other Big 12 coaches not named Lincoln Riley who have been in the conference since 2017. Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 24–12, 13–12; TCU’s Gary Patterson is 23–14, 14–12; Iowa State’s Matt Campbell is 22–14, 15–10; and Baylor’s Matt Rhule is 17–18, 11–14.
With nearly a three-year body of work, there is no discernible difference between the Longhorns under Herman and the rest of the upper-middle class of the Big 12. Everyone is chasing Oklahoma in a muddled pack.
Thing is, there is supposed to be a difference between Texas and the rest of the upper-middle class. The recruiting rankings suggest that there should be. The tradition screams that there should be. The results aren’t there.
Even the game-by-game results reinforce the fact that Texas is not operating on a different level. Under Herman, 15 out of 26 conference games have been decided by one score or less. Average score of the Horns’ Big 12 games this season: Texas 32.9, opponents 32.4. Three of the past four have been decided by a field goal on the final play.
Currently, Baylor is the Lone Star State team putting together a special season. Texas has a chance to do damage to that Saturday in Waco, and to keep its own conference title hopes alive. But anything short of a surprise Big 12 title game appearance and upset of Oklahoma will be viewed as coming up short in 2019.
None of this means Texas will never be back under Herman. It does mean that the Longhorns have a long way yet to go. And it means that they should have to prove they’re back before saying they’re back.