Gerry Hamilton
College Football Playoff: No. 16 Texas now needs four teams to lose to get in
No. 16 Texas kept their slim College Football Playoff hopes alive with the 27-17 win over No. 3 Texas A&M.
While there can be an argument made Texas should/could be in with three top 10 wins and a very difficult road schedule, that's not the reality right now of what Tuesday's College Football Playoff ranking is saying. And that's all that matters headed into Saturday.
I'll start with this ... I believe Texas will end up jumping ahead of No. 12 Utah (the Utes should drop 2-3 spots off last two weeks alone, plus their schedule). If not, that's egregious.
But let's start with Texas at No. 16, for now.
No. 1 Ohio State at No. 15 Michigan ...
No. 1 Ohio State must win at No. 15 Michigan. If Michigan wins, Texas is basically done.
Result: Texas moves up to 15.
No. 12 Miami at Pitt...
Pittsburgh absolutely needs to beat the Hurricanes. That would knock Miami out most importantly, and also guarantee the ACC only gets one spot. Texas would need complete SEC chaos if Miami wins.
Result: Texas moves up to 14.
No. 14 Vanderbilt at No. 19 Tennessee ...
The Volunteers need to beat Diego Pavia in Knoxville. This one is key. A 9-3 Vandy 100% is behind a 9-3 Texas due to head-to-head.
Obviously, an OU upset loss at home to LSU would mean the same. But let's go with the more likely scenario - Vandy losing at Tennessee. LSU's OL is truly going to struggle in Norman Saturday.
Result: Texas moves up to 13.
No. 10 Alabama at Auburn ...
Auburn has a very good defense, and this rivalry is truly wild. A War Eagle upset over Bama would be huge for Texas.
If not this game, maybe some very slight chance No. 9 Notre Dame takes a major upset at Stanford. Not likely. ND a 31.5 point favorite.
Result: Texas moves up to 12
So Texas needs four things to happen Saturday to ensure they end up getting in.
Now let's say only 15 Michigan, 12 Miami and 14 Vanderbilt lose Saturday ...
Texas is either 13 or 12, depending on what the committee does with Utah vs. Texas.
Let's assume Texas is 12, as I believe they would be in this scenario.
Then it will simply come down to Texas Tech winning the Big 12 Championship Game a week from tomorrow.
At that point, Texas would be No. 11 and in.
Final note: There are a couple of longer shot potential scenarios, to be clear.
After that, let's get back to Texas jumping Utah in a scenario where they are initially separated by one spot. Texas moves to No. 11 jumping Utah.