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henrygandorf

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by henrygandorf

  1. i think the registration issues happen on both sides. certain states register you in certain ways. out here in ca, you have to be proactive to be d or r, and a lot of people end up ind because of it (i think this is when you get your ca dl but can't remember). so yeah, registration may not matter or be accurate, my wife's reg says ind. what i'm leaning on more is the issue of haley voters as recently as a few months ago, after she was out of the race, still voting for her and telling pollsters they would vote for kamala over trump. will they all? of course not. but those people exist. every poll i've seen that tracks this info has more r's voting d than d's voting r, but it's impossible to know how big those numbers will be.
  2. hadn’t seen these, no idea of their veracity, but certainly wouldn’t line up with what we keep hearing about gop voting early. the one variable continues to be how many registered r’s are voting for kamala. we don’t know this number but it’s definitely larger than the converse number of dems voting for trump.
  3. i know this is a joke, but i will answer anyway. if she has time, sure, why not. i think 3 hours is ridiculous and i can't imagine listening/watching the trump one for 3 hours holy shit. if they can figure out a way to do it for 60-90 minutes, that makes sense. i will say this - several times during the limited clips that i saw, trump tried to get rogan to take the bait and say something shitty about kamala, and joe refused to do it every time. i'm sure his listeners were hoping he'd talk shit, and he didn't. he's been outwardly very cordial and straightforward about what he wants from the interview, and i would expect the same amount of pushback he gave trump on his answers, which is not much. he said he wants to talk to her and learn about who she is personally, and he at least seems respectful when he says it. all that said, i don't think it would help her win the election, and there's a 100% chance that something during those 60-90 minutes would become "controversial" and a "gotcha" moment for the maga goons, and they would screech about it for a week, and i don't love that. tl;dr - i don't see much harm, but i also don't see much upside. rogan isn't some traditional requirement that candidates have to go on before they run, and i don't want to set that precedent now. he can interview her in a month when she's pres-elect, and it'll be wherever she wants it to be.
  4. man, it's like you can't even go around lighting mailboxes on fire without it being 'political'. sad.
  5. also isn't registered to vote.
  6. he made it on the local news! (he’s at the very end).
  7. um, where do i get that shirt?
  8. imagine taking fire from peter fucking navarro lolol.
  9. let me tell you about the scorpion and the toad…
  10. the best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter.
  11. honest answer - because their policies suck and are generally unpopular. also it's not last minute. fear and obstruction is all they know.
  12. if trump wins kansas by 5, it's all over but the crying.
  13. not sure why he said "weird", when "unexpected" or "surprising" might fit better. he's a dem, so he didn't mean weird as in shitty or suspect. separately, my nephew is a senior at michigan and wanted to go to kamala's rally tonight, but didn't feel like waiting in line for several hours. so according to my group text, there is currently a pledge in a folding chair with his laptop near the front of the line. this kid's got a future.
  14. i have no doubt that r's are going back to voting early, which used to be the trend. as it's been stated, it will likely cannibalize their day-of voting, but that's not what's important to me. turnout is all that matters. a few of your earlier posts implied that the trends are easily identifiable as pro-r and anti-d don't tell the real story, but certainly seemed to have been lapped up by those hoping to hear it. the rise of mail-in voting states + reversion of gop voting early makes it harder to predict, especially when compared to 2020, which was a one-off. what is easier to predict is turnout. anyone who thinks higher turnout favors trump is kidding themselves.
  15. big fan of “this you?” tweets. obviously.
  16. but if he loses one more time, these people will all suddenly have spine implant surgery?
  17. you can buy contracts now, but they pay off…in january? what’s going to happen in january to alter the results?
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