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henrygandorf

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by henrygandorf

  1. having followed the pa firewall storyline the past couple weeks, it will be fascinating to see how it plays out and if the predictions hold. what i'm most curious about is the registered gop voters and what the haley->harris numbers look like. all the polling (so far) has suggested that kamala is getting more of the gop votes than trump is getting of the dem votes (though not by much). the "party-swap" votes are not factored in to the firewall numbers, and if kamala just wins those by 1-2 points, that could add some much-needed cushion. while i do agree that 70/30 sounds aggressive (even if true), i'm much more confident in the 390k number logic, especially considering she looks like she's gonna get there midweek.
  2. and the odds of a repeat are straight bluto - 0.0. feel free to correct me if you think otherwise. also i thought you were using 2020 as a baseline and looking at the huge shift in rurals? guess i'm not following this thread close enough. bottom line - the higher the turnout, the better it is for dems. period, paragraph. and so far, the turnout is high. biden won the popular vote by 7m votes. kamala will win by more because of turnout. the gop will never win the popular vote again.
  3. it also doesn't take into account mail-in vote, which has been popular in many states for a while, but didn't take off nationally until covid, which frankly changed everything and shouldn't be used as a baseline for other presidential election years. there won't be a 50/50 pv split anytime soon. i would say "within your lifetime" but i have no idea how old people are.
  4. so tony, you say it's "wild" that a vp candidate would take time to analyze a joke, which implies he's got more important things to do. but then you put "busy schedule" in quotations, which implies that he actually isn't that busy, so hey fuckball, which is it?
  5. fl to kamala is +760 on my book. i think it's worth a half.
  6. greg gutfeld thinks he’s a comedian too, so it’s not like the bar is set that high.
  7. the right is getting better at comedy.
  8. $10 to get in. $20 to get out.
  9. the last time i did cocaine was when that guy was talking.
  10. listen to ultra, it’s good.
  11. i've seen a lot (too many?) stories lately about "how can we avoid repeating 2016", including a cnn interview with hillary herself. assuming the election was fought fairly (eyeroll), the entire political landscape was different in 2015-16. obama was just in the wh for 8 years. all the dems were docile and relaxed, and trump was seen as a joke of a candidate, and we were overconfident. i admit i thought, even after he won, that he'd just sit there like a knucklehead, because he didn't understand government (not that far off, but whatever). now, we've had trump in our lives for 10 years. turnout has been up every cycle since. nobody is docile. nobody is relaxed. people are quietly confident, but nobody is yelling from the rooftops about it. they're staying angry and making sure everybody else is too. dems who sounded the alarms 2-3 weeks out in 2016 are eerily silent right now. we've got this.
  12. you should. i went down the rabbit hole a couple years ago (i think i even made a post about it) and watched/read/listened to a ton of stuff about the late 30's - basically what was going on in the u.s. after hitler invaded poland but before we got involved in the war. it's really fascinating. maddow did a podcast called "ultra" that was great, whether you like her or not. i watched "the plot against america" (which i skipped when it aired), oliver stone's untold history of the united states. it's a really interesting chunk of american history that nobody really pays attention to (or purposely forgets) because 1941-1945 overshadows it all. the older i get, the more i realize even at a good middle school/public high school/ut, i don't know shit about history outside of the major events and what becomes a tv show or movie. consider that most of maga + the orange man-god himself relies mostly on jr high education (he's still learning about abraham lincoln ffs) and bold type history. you shouldn't need more motivation than that. over the past 10 years or so, what i used to consume in sports, i now consume in history. then i found the surly cloak room and flushed it all down the toilet. so thanks. assholes.
  13. there’s also a clip where he says “kamala” several times and pronounces it correctly every time.
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