it's been stated but bears repeating. the electoral college is fucking stupid, but the electoral math works out nicely for the good guys this time around.
as js and others have said, michigan + wisconsin + pennsylvania (along with the expecteds) gets us right to 270. that's without arizona, georgia, nevada, north carolina, or any other "hope" states.
would it be nice to win nc? of course. would keeping it competitive in ohio, florida, and texas be a harbinger of good things to come? obviously. but don't get it twisted - the rust belt is everything. that's why kamala has been hammering mi/wi/pa. trump, along with stops in ca, ny, and il, is now in north carolina. nc is important - to him. if he loses there, it's pretty much done. but that list of states, while nice to have, don't add up the way the rust belt does.
get mi/wi/pa and it's all over but the crying. vote like your ability to say "fuck your feelings" to the deplorables depends on it, because it absolutely does.
https://www.270towin.com/