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henrygandorf

Certifiably Surly
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    19,559
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Everything posted by henrygandorf

  1. imagine wanting to shape the conversation and influence opinion so much that you buy twitter and you still fuck it up.
  2. i know most of y'all don't care about predictit...but for the first time this election season, the top 2 kamala (35-104 ev) are priced above the top 2 trump (35-104 ev) 36c to 35c. it's happening.
  3. can you also call my wife and tell her there’s a free beyoncé concert that night in downtown burbank?
  4. i think my favorite thing about walz, and there's a lot to like, is that he doesn't seem like he wants to be president.
  5. ok, after the wisconsin shift (the blue wall state i was most concerned with), i started looking at the math. i think most people don't understand where we are with the electoral math, so let's take a quick look. if everything holds, then wisconsin + pennsylvania + michigan = 270. that's the election. we don't need north caro, georgia, arizona, nevada. those 3 get us there and i think it's important people know that. she can get there with those, he cannot. i already felt good about michigan, and now with the wisconsin news, i shift back to pa. what happens if we lose pa? look at the other 4 swing states - nc, ga, az, nv. if we lose pa, we need any 2 of these swing states unless the 2 are az and nv. adding only those 2 gets us to 268. so if we get mi/wi and lose pa, then that's the deal. ga + any of those = win nc + any of those = win az + nc or ga = win nv + nc or ga = win i just had to explain the rust belt path, which really does seem too easy, to someone who was skeptical. i don't know shit about fuck, but i can math pretty good. i still think it's going to be a boatrace and all this is academic, but for the doom-and-gloomers out there, who often get distracted by all the bells and whistles and shiny objects, just concentrate on those 3 states and pour something expensive. we're gonna win.
  6. in any other cycle, they’d be talking about her 2-3 point lead across the blue wall. this year it’s “a coin flip” or a “dead-heat”. when the legit polls are steady for weeks, there is no moe.
  7. my guess is this is not cbs’ first rodeo. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe2vBnfKCC4&pp=ygUfdGhlIGluc2lkZXIgYWwgcGFjaW5vIG1vbm9sb2d1ZQ%3D%3D
  8. in 2018 on a late night show she had to be pushed pretty hard to say out loud "we're gonna take back the house" when it was plainly obvious that was happening. i can't remember which show.
  9. what i posted shows that two "trump blowout" predictions are down today. the biggest beneficiaries are kamala 35-64 and 65-104. neither side seems to think this will be close, according to betting sites.
  10. a few of us were on a whatsapp group, and were buying for 40c, selling for 60c, then buying again at 40c over and over. depending on early numbers from fl, nc, pa, mi, etc, i'm expecting a lot of green numbers. then once some reality sets in on fl/oh, things will settle. it'll be a roller coaster but i'm happy with my current positions. up to 10k shares now.
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