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henrygandorf

Certifiably Surly
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Everything posted by henrygandorf

  1. ok, after the wisconsin shift (the blue wall state i was most concerned with), i started looking at the math. i think most people don't understand where we are with the electoral math, so let's take a quick look. if everything holds, then wisconsin + pennsylvania + michigan = 270. that's the election. we don't need north caro, georgia, arizona, nevada. those 3 get us there and i think it's important people know that. she can get there with those, he cannot. i already felt good about michigan, and now with the wisconsin news, i shift back to pa. what happens if we lose pa? look at the other 4 swing states - nc, ga, az, nv. if we lose pa, we need any 2 of these swing states unless the 2 are az and nv. adding only those 2 gets us to 268. so if we get mi/wi and lose pa, then that's the deal. ga + any of those = win nc + any of those = win az + nc or ga = win nv + nc or ga = win i just had to explain the rust belt path, which really does seem too easy, to someone who was skeptical. i don't know shit about fuck, but i can math pretty good. i still think it's going to be a boatrace and all this is academic, but for the doom-and-gloomers out there, who often get distracted by all the bells and whistles and shiny objects, just concentrate on those 3 states and pour something expensive. we're gonna win.
  2. in any other cycle, they’d be talking about her 2-3 point lead across the blue wall. this year it’s “a coin flip” or a “dead-heat”. when the legit polls are steady for weeks, there is no moe.
  3. my guess is this is not cbs’ first rodeo. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe2vBnfKCC4&pp=ygUfdGhlIGluc2lkZXIgYWwgcGFjaW5vIG1vbm9sb2d1ZQ%3D%3D
  4. in 2018 on a late night show she had to be pushed pretty hard to say out loud "we're gonna take back the house" when it was plainly obvious that was happening. i can't remember which show.
  5. what i posted shows that two "trump blowout" predictions are down today. the biggest beneficiaries are kamala 35-64 and 65-104. neither side seems to think this will be close, according to betting sites.
  6. a few of us were on a whatsapp group, and were buying for 40c, selling for 60c, then buying again at 40c over and over. depending on early numbers from fl, nc, pa, mi, etc, i'm expecting a lot of green numbers. then once some reality sets in on fl/oh, things will settle. it'll be a roller coaster but i'm happy with my current positions. up to 10k shares now.
  7. how's your week looking? i've been slowly increasing my shares of pretty much everything on the kamala side. yes, she's not going to win by 105-154, but for 4c, it's worth it. not because it'll cash, but because on tues, if things are looking good, those will triple. not only does pi lean right, but it overreacts harder than any site i've seen. i have about 9000 shares total, and tues will be a shitshow. i'm taking a personal day. also, for anyone wondering, i started buying these a couple of weeks ago, and like i said in my post ^ i was in the red every day. until last night. things are shifting. let's fucking go.
  8. weird. i thought transgender treatment of prisoners was the #1 topic. oh well, back to watch literally any sport on any channel at any time of the day.
  9. sounds like kamala needs an anomaly miracle on election day to keep this close.
  10. outlandish shit like education, climate, criminal justice reform, healthcare.
  11. spoiler alert - it's trump, but older. i for one think he looks fantastic. he's totally making sense and has perfected the weave, which shows super genius, he's moving around well, not dragging his leg, either of them, he's fine walking up or down slight incline ramps, especially down, and he drinks water like a 75 year old. i look forward to him campaigning hard to take back the house in 2026.
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