Captainant
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Posts posted by Captainant
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1 hour ago, Superhero said:
Google says a F-35 costs between $110 - $135M depending on variant. A Gerald Ford class aircraft carrier costs $13B. (And what I'm familiar with) A hospital that we bid on 2 years ago cost $1.2B.
IIRC, the $13B number is the service life cost of the vessel, I think they're only $5B or so to build
Edit: nvm I'm wrong holy shit those are expensive
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2 hours ago, HenryJames said:
MIT robotics pioneer Rodney Brooks thinks people are vastly overestimating generative AI
When Rodney Brooks talks about robotics and artificial intelligence, you should listen. Currently the Panasonic Professor of Robotics Emeritus at MIT, he also co-founded three key companies, including Rethink Robotics, iRobot and his current endeavor, Robust.ai. Brooks also ran the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) for a decade starting in 1997.
In fact, he likes to make predictions about the future of AI and keeps a scorecard on his blog of how well he’s doing.
He knows what he’s talking about, and he thinks maybe it’s time to put the brakes on the screaming hype that is generative AI. Brooks thinks it’s impressive technology, but maybe not quite as capable as many are suggesting. “I’m not saying LLMs are not important, but we have to be careful [with] how we evaluate them,” he told TechCrunch.
He says the trouble with generative AI is that, while it’s perfectly capable of performing a certain set of tasks, it can’t do everything a human can, and humans tend to overestimate its capabilities. “When a human sees an AI system perform a task, they immediately generalize it to things that are similar and make an estimate of the competence of the AI system; not just the performance on that, but the competence around that,” Brooks said. “And they’re usually very over-optimistic, and that’s because they use a model of a person’s performance on a task.”
He added that the problem is that generative AI is not human or even human-like, and it’s flawed to try and assign human capabilities to it. He says people see it as so capable they even want to use it for applications that don’t make sense.
Brooks offers his latest company, Robust.ai, a warehouse robotics system, as an example of this. Someone suggested to him recently that it would be cool and efficient to tell his warehouse robots where to go by building an LLM for his system. In his estimation, however, this is not a reasonable use case for generative AI and would actually slow things down. It’s instead much simpler to connect the robots to a stream of data coming from the warehouse management software.
“When you have 10,000 orders that just came in that you have to ship in two hours, you have to optimize for that. Language is not gonna help; it’s just going to slow things down,” he said. “We have massive data processing and massive AI optimization techniques and planning. And that’s how we get the orders completed fast.”
Techcrunch event
Disrupt 2024
Got Laid Off? Find Your Next Job At Disrupt.Get 50% Off The Disrupt Expo+ Pass San Francisco, October 28-30
Book Now & SaveAnother lesson Brooks has learned when it comes to robots and AI is that you can’t try to do too much. You should solve a solvable problem where robots can be integrated easily.
“We need to automate in places where things have already been cleaned up. So the example of my company is we’re doing pretty well in warehouses, and warehouses are actually pretty constrained. The lighting doesn’t change with those big buildings. There’s not stuff lying around on the floor because the people pushing carts would run into that. There’s no floating plastic bags going around. And largely it’s not in the interest of the people who work there to be malicious to the robot,” he said.
Brooks explains that it’s also about robots and humans working together, so his company designed these robots for practical purposes related to warehouse operations, as opposed to building a human-looking robot. In this case, it looks like a shopping cart with a handle.
“So the form factor we use is not humanoids walking around — even though I have built and delivered more humanoids than anyone else. These look like shopping carts,” he said. “It’s got a handlebar, so if there’s a problem with the robot, a person can grab the handlebar and do what they wish with it,” he said.
After all these years, Brooks has learned that it’s about making the technology accessible and purpose-built. “I always try to make technology easy for people to understand, and therefore we can deploy it at scale, and always look at the business case; the return on investment is also very important.”
Even with that, Brooks says we have to accept that there are always going to be hard-to-solve outlier cases when it comes to AI, that could take decades to solve. “Without carefully boxing in how an AI system is deployed, there is always a long tail of special cases that take decades to discover and fix. Paradoxically all those fixes are AI complete themselves.”
Brooks adds that there’s this mistaken belief, mostly thanks to Moore’s law, that there will always be exponential growth when it comes to technology — the idea that if ChatGPT 4 is this good, imagine what ChatGPT 5, 6 and 7 will be like. He sees this flaw in that logic, that tech doesn’t always grow exponentially, in spite of Moore’s law.
He uses the iPod as an example. For a few iterations, it did in fact double in storage size from 10 all the way to 160GB. If it had continued on that trajectory, he figured out we would have an iPod with 160TB of storage by 2017, but of course we didn’t. The models being sold in 2017 actually came with 256GB or 160GB because, as he pointed out, nobody actually needed more than that.
Brooks acknowledges that LLMs could help at some point with domestic robots, where they could perform specific tasks, especially with an aging population and not enough people to take care of them. But even that, he says, could come with its own set of unique challenges.
“People say, ‘Oh, the large language models are gonna make robots be able to do things they couldn’t do.’ That’s not where the problem is. The problem with being able to do stuff is about control theory and all sorts of other hardcore math optimization,” he said.
Brooks explains that this could eventually lead to robots with useful language interfaces for people in care situations. “It’s not useful in the warehouse to tell an individual robot to go out and get one thing for one order, but it may be useful for eldercare in homes for people to be able to say things to the robots,” he sai
People are overestimating genAI like they were with blockchain a few years ago. Businesses are adding into their roadmap because their investors are asking them to - not because there's an actual business problem they're trying to solve and think it's the right tool.
I don't think it's gonna be as revolutionary as all the MBAs need it to be, but there's such big bets being placed because they think it can replace a ton of workers with compute capacity.
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1 minute ago, Anastasis said:
Good advice for anyone that wants to push their ideology off on other people’s kids in a school environment.
You're saying this just vaguely enough to fit in at Sunday school so they think you're talking about the evil gay agenda trying to groom their children, rather than the Sunday school teacher
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4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:
Humility and humor. Who knew?
I have seen some allusions that he had a cold during the debate. Even pretty mild sickness of any kind can be really hard on the elderly in a way younger folks don't experience. For those with actual dementia, it can make them completely non-functional when they normally are much more functional (I'm not saying Joe has dementia, it is just an example I have personally observed).
In his last couple years before he passed, you could tell when my dad had a virus or infection - he would go from a pretty smart and clever dude to someone that would forget what he were saying as he was saying it. And he was a couple decades younger than Biden, so I can imagine the strain he was under. Unfortunate timing, but its a risk we are exposed to when an 82yo is running.
It's a damn shame that money is what gets representation rather than citizens in America, but we're just gonna keep getting bidens and other olds for as long as dollars matter more than people
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14 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:
ATF just had a whoooooole bunch of rules go away too
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4 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:
It’s astonishing you don’t understand the statement being made when you attend a Free Palestine rally.
Say more, please
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2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:
What the fuck happened to him last night?
being an 80+ year old with a cold is gonna do a fuckin doozie on you
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8 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:
I missed the debate. (I'm trying to learn to sail. Snipe - what a stupid boat).
No no, you're supposed to say your boat was out of wifi! 😛
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8 minutes ago, Macklemore said:
Trump egging Putin to start WWIII. That’s fucking rich. We’re closer to war with Russia now than we’ve ever been since 1962. Your President has been the one itching for a war. Not a single American life is worth dying for Ukraine.
Yeah I wonder why america was closer to russia while trump had the con....
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1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:
Sweet fucking jesus they just kneecapped the 1/6 prosecutions.
Well it's a good thing they took their fucking time to start doing fucking ANYTHING about those crimes, then. I wonder what all the self-righteous surly law dawgs are gonna do when the legal system completely falls apart under their feet as the supremes continue to chip away at the foundation
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3 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:
I seem to have wandered into a place I do not belong, I was unaware the world was crumbling around our feet. I will bow out since you all seem to be bringing a much different level of energy to this discussion than me. It was great chatting today. I stand by my statement though "This is probably one of the least consequential elections of our lifetime. Both candidates are ineffective and both parties are determined to not let the other side legislate." So hopefully that can calm some of the nerves in here. Or maybe I am completely out of touch. Whichever it is, I wish you all well. Goodbye for now.
So in summary, you didn't actually want to discuss - you wanted to propagandize and took your ball and went home when it didn't find an audience.
Try texags, you'll probably find more your speed there
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10 hours ago, immamac said:
How is this thread not melting down? Lol. Trump was insane.
How is it that you still don't understand that it doesn't matter WHAT trump says or does, it's simply that he's getting oxygen and airtime that matters to him. His insanity is a feature, not a bug. It's not a surprise that a deranged rapist said crazy shit and lied through his teeth.
You can't give people like that any platform. They'll just abuse it an shit all over everything.
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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:
And worse - The Rock. Who’s been sucking up to the MAGAs lately for his bottom line. Total flip from 2020
I mean just look at his past work, in Fast Five he totally flip-flops the entire damn movie!
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Just now, Brisketexan said:
I’m fine with this. Embrace the nihilism.
tastes like microplastics and PFAS
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7 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:
So now that bribery is legal, the judiciary is now solely responsible for regulatory oversight.
Is this where all the lawyers come and tell me I'm overreacting and that this is how a healthy system actually looks?
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4 minutes ago, immamac said:
That's not what it is. Trump is going to fuck things to a point of collapse. 2016-2020 was an absolute shit show even before COVID.
Hell, the current PFAS innundation we're enjoying is in large part thanks to rule rollbacks and loopholes put into place by trumpco. Businesses don't have to report how much they're discharging, so they can dump until somebody notices
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1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:
Wtf
They could have at least pushed him out of the window of the car, jeeze
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3 minutes ago, F250 said:
Gen-X is mostly in their 50's now. Millennials keep rolling into their 40's yet we have two old as fuck Boomers running for president. Make this make sense.
Whichever group holds the most money tends to get the most representation in our government.
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27 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:
Point of order: not all engineers are black or white when it comes to the "correct" position. Complex systems (which comprise most of the real world) demand a collection of tradeoffs, many of which aren't particularly right or wrong on their face. A Volvo ain't a BMW but they're both decent cars.
It's often the case that there's no "right" answer when picking a set of tradeoffs, but rather which set of constraints incurred leave you the most design space available, or are most palatable to the stakeholders. However, there's absolutely cases where something is the "WRONG!!!" answer even when there isnt a single "right" answer.
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29 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:
I think that experience made me even more "fair minded" or willing to give equal attention to both sides of any issue even than the usual lawdog.
I think the openness to drinking poison and lies from our enemies under the guise of #bothsides and a false notion of "the truth is ALWAYS in the middle" can lead to you getting taken for a ride by fascists. It's that good faith and tolerance for their intolerance and deceit that instigates the power imbalance and is a major contributing factor to why the justice system is so biased in favor of the wealthy and powerful.
Because they'll always be able to throw out more grist for your intellectual mill than you can process. They'll drown you in a firehose of falsehoods if you give them the mic, you spend all your time debunking their lies so your message doesn't get out.
We see it in action with how trump campaigns, and how cannon defends her client from the bench.
But if you have brain worms that compell you to believe that everything is always done in good faith and there's always some reasonable middle ground, then you're gonna get taken for a fuckin ride.
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41 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:
I don’t think it was Biden’s ego; I think he (along with the vast majority of others) thought he was the best candidate due to incumbency, and until last night, he was right. Even as recently as the SOTU Biden looked fit. The way he looked last night was shocking.
I agree that how Biden looked was awful, but what do we expect from an octagenarian with a virus? I think it is dumb to run olds that are so vulnerable to stuff that someone under 60 could handle with more stamina and resiliency.
But then again, when money directly equates to political power in our system, it's not terribly surprising that our political leaders represent that constituency of hoarding boomers more than the broad American public
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2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:
He and the Democratic party are fucking around, and the rest of us are about to find out
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12 minutes ago, dcbc said:
Let's be clear, I'm not shaming him if he lives in his mom's basement and demands meatloaf whilst unemployed. I'm just curious what utopian profession he is in that he can shit on mine like he's trying to win best colonoscopy prep. Because it must be a model of perfection. And I'm guessing it isn't since he's dodged the question so thoroughly.
Lulz not unemployed, I'm in tech which is a never ending stream of problems and issues to be solved. Fortunately, it's typically a clear up/down as to if something will work or not and there's less of the aw-shucks-ing when there's an obvious fucking cancer eating at a system
And I'm more shitting on corrupt judges and the busted judicial system than I am on lawyers. It's just that shitty trumpco lawyers are the ones bringing the garbage to the courts and turning the crank
So like are you a trump lawyer or a judge or something?
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22 minutes ago, immamac said:
I don't think that video generation is based on LLM/Transformer architecture is it? I thought this was based on an entirely different type of inference and the training was different.
The approaches that I've seen (so basically just Sora) are text to video transformers using the LLM architecture. It's just that the output tokens are video segments rather than word fragments or segments of a picture. It's significantly more complex, but they've made some pretty incredible strides in generated video to the point where it's no longer just pure nightmare fuel
2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.
in Cloak Room
Posted
Well my dad was an advanced Parkinson's patient of a couple decades in his early 60s so I guess I left that important detail out. I more meant to make the point that when you're older and your body is in worse shape, things that used to be minor can quickly become debilitating
I'm saying that the number of people who want a policy or a politician to succeed doesn't matter anymore, and that it indexes more closely to the wishes of whomever has the most money.
https://act.represent.us/sign/problempoll-fba/
Said more plainly, were moving back towards caring more about land owners over the people living on that land. Granted, I'm sure that's how you prefer things