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Everything posted by Katfid54
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This. Their deep passing game is really bad. So long as we don't bail them out with PIs, that's not a big component of WVU's offense this year.
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Texas @ WVU will be at 2:30 Central on 10/5 - ABC
Katfid54 replied to Machinator's topic in Football
Cool, well, thanks for posting!!111! -
Parallax effect, imo.
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Texas @ WVU will be at 2:30 Central on 10/5 - ABC
Katfid54 replied to Machinator's topic in Football
That's exactly what he does now, so... -
Texas @ WVU will be at 2:30 Central on 10/5 - ABC
Katfid54 replied to Machinator's topic in Football
All of our linebackers have been solid against the run all year. And they've been generally bad against the pass. Ossai has been one of the better LBs in pass coverage, when we move to dime. If you move him back to B-backer, you are taking him off the field in the dime package. -
Honestly, as long as we don't shit our pants when we have negative plays on offense (and with the way they play D, we will have a few), we ought to win going away. WVU might be the second worst team we've played this year--ahead of only Rice. They're pretty close to La. Tech in terms of talent and less well-coached.
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As I have a few other times this year, I watched a single game (NC State @ WVU) of our upcoming opponent, West Virginia. Based on that viewing, I make drastic and wide-reaching claims about the strengths and weaknesses of the Mountaineers. As you can already tell, my strategy and analysis is as flawed as West Virginia’s claim to statehood (seriously, check it out here: West Virginia is probably unconstitutional). But enough self-flagellation. Let’s get to it: Coach philosophy: After a strong, but ultimately disappointing 2018 campaign, Dana Holgorsen left the craggy bootlegging dens of Morgantown for the concrete syzzurp jungle of Houston. The 2018 WVU squad was stacked; it saw five players drafted and had another—David Sills—be named All American. The 2019 squad is…. not stacked. New coach Neal Brown spells his first name wrong and has taken over the helm of the Mountaineers. You probably remember Neal Brown from the time his Troy Spartans took down LSU. You probably forgot that he was offensive coordinator at Texas Tech under Tommy Tuberville, following their firing of Mike Leach. After his hiring, Tuberville fired Tech’s then-inside WRs coach, Lincoln Riley. Brown’s OC highlights at Texas Tech featured such memorable contests as Taylor Potts leading the Red Raiders to a close win over Northwestern in the 2011 Ticket City Bowl, and literally no other games (unless you count the time they got rung up 41-7 by the Tom Herman-OC’ed Iowa State Cyclones?). Neal Brown is technically a member of the Air Raid coaching tree, as he played under Leach and Mumme at Kentucky in the late 2000s. But his offense is not particularly Air Raid-y, and in my viewing of a single game, I saw very few of the Air Raid staples of Yore (saw a version of mesh once, didn’t see four verts, etc.). Brown’s coaching style appears to be: aggression. He has taken an underpowered WVU squad (smart of Holgo to get out while he did, by the way) and has basically cranked the intensity and aggression up to 11. Speaking of crank, there is a crystal method to West Virginia’s madness: His defense’s sole goal appears to be trying to force negative plays in the run game on first down to make the offense resort to predictable play calling later in the series. Sound familiar? It’s Orlando’s defensive philosophy. But as you’ll see below, WVU’s defense is far less staffed for that approach. And based on what I saw from NC State, if faced with a competent offensive attack, WVU’s aggression will likely crumble when stacked against a balanced offense. But while WVU plays aggressive (several clips of that in the defensive breakdown below), they do not appear to be well-coached. They make lots of silly mistakes and mental errors that Texas can capitalize. Offensive Philosophy: I mentioned above that WVU’s personnel and depth leaves something to be desired. The one thing Holgorsen left a lot of, though, is speed at the receiver position. And they use it. WVU LOVES buck and toss sweep. They’ll run it from any formation to any guy. They’ll run double sweep action and try to confuse the defense on who caught the ball from the toss. QB: WVU’s QB is Austin Kendall, who grad-transferred in from OU. He’s no Will Grier: Kendall has a tendency to miss throws high. Sometimes it’s due to pressure. Othertime, it’s due to him just being kind of shitty. In either event, there ought to be some opportunities for our safeties and LBs to pick off stray passes on Saturday. To the extent Brown is a true Air Raid disciple, you’d think he’d be able to get his offense up and running pretty easily at WVU. But there are…. some kinks: But just like any more experienced college QB, if Kendall gets into a rhythm, he can make some good throws. Watch that one again, if you glazed over it. This is actually a super savvy play in the red zone, when Air Raid offenses tend to bog down due to lack of space. What is so special about it? Watch Kendall cut the play action short to look at the backside post. This takes the safety all the way from the near hash most of the way to the far hash in about a second and a half. Now, that safety is playing run hard, so if he draws out the play action, maybe he still has a good window, but by that time, his receiver is several steps deeper into the redzone. Here’s a view of Kendall from the safety’s perspective on this play: Generally speaking, though, Kendall isn’t going to beat Texas, if Texas doesn’t bail him out by giving up cheap penalties. Kendall doesn’t have the arm strength or accuracy to hit the deep bombs that Will Grier made so many teams pay with: And when Texas has an opportunity to pick Kendall off (and there will be opportunities), they can’t shoot themselves in the foot by fighting over the ball: I’ve said it a few times, but Kendall will give the ball away—especially if he gets pressured. Texas should capitalize: WR: As mentioned above, WVU has speed at the WR position. Sean Ryan (18) and Sam James (13) were their best options in the game I watched. Neither should scare you, especially because Kendall struggles getting them the ball. Here’s Ryan. He’s a bigger receiver—in the Collin Johnson mold. He still has good speed, though. Holgorsen didn’t recruit you unless you had speed. WVU’s best (or at least most lethal) receiver is James. He has plenty of speed: I mean, seriously. Look at the separation he gets here on a very simple post-corner: Wow. But James, while explosive, struggles with consistency. If he doesn’t get the separation he wants, he will drop the ball: RB: WVU’s running back is fine. He’s #6, and his name is McCoy. He’s not going to hurt us on Saturday, unless Orlando loses his mind in stopping the run for some reason. OL: West Virginia’s OL is significantly less intimidating than last year. I’m not even sure how good they were last year; Grier always got the ball out so fast, it was impossible to get to him. Things are… different… now. WVU’s OL can sometimes hit on outside zone decently. Theydo a nice job of working together on OZ to pass off defenders and get to the second level. WVU’s pass pro Defensive Philosophy: As mentioned above, WVU’s D is aggressive. Their DL gets upfield on almost every play, making them susceptible to screens and traps, and their safeties try to DESTROY wide receivers, making them susceptible to PIs and targeting penalties. Their LBs generally suck—especially in pass coverage. No first-year DC bump here. WVU’s LBs are just turf-guarders in the pass game. There are a lot of opportunities for explosive plays here. DL: As mentioned, WVU’s defensive line’s sole mission in life is to get upfield. And that makes sense, given how undersized they are. #55 is Dante Stills. #56 is (his brother?) Darius Stills. They rotate at DT/NG (depending on whether WVU shows an odd or even front). And they both get their asses upfield: Here’s Dante Stills (55): He is WVU’s best DL (maybe by a lot): But Stills is so focused on getting upfield that he is susceptible to jumping offsides: Here’s his brother, Darius: Seriously—look at how far upfield these guys get Here’s where WVU’s really bad, though: Moving laterally. They got destroyed by NC State running outside zone And when they didn’t get penetration, on inside zone, too: The other thing that will punish this defense is screens… if you don’t throw the ball four feet over your RB’s head. And if you don’t get IN FRONT of your lead blockers… LB: Linebackers might be the weakest part of the defense—especially in pass coverage. WVU’s LBs’ gap integrity is a mess. Just check out how haphazardly they’re running around here: Gap integrity is a mess here. The stand-up DE/OLB gets easily hooked by the tight end. The playside mike backer tries to shoot a gap for no apparent reason, putting him in the wash and taking him out of the play. And the run supporting safety tries to shoot that same gap, allowing the tackle to get to him and put a block on him. And I can’t wait to see Braun link up with these undersized linebackers and take them out for breakfast: Pancakes anyone? Pass defense by LBs is rough. Look at 10 here—he’s just covering space. He doesn’t commit to try and cover the inside wide receiver, and he doesn’t work over to the Y, either. Nor does the outside linebacker lay a hand on the Y as he runs up the seam, and until the QB throws the ball, the safety is actually running away from the tight end running up the middle of the field. Speaking of which, remember those times Andrew Beck and Sam couldn’t hook up down the seam last year against WVU? That play will be there on Saturday, too: Doesn’t even matter who’s throwing the ball: Given how aggressive this defense is in pursuing the RBs, one other thing that will be there all day on Saturday, if we need to use it, is the QB read game: DB: I’ve covered a lot of ground, including some safety stuff above. Suffice it to say, the DBs might be their most aggressive unit on the field—with feast or famine results. They will try to lower their helmet, and they might have some guys tossed for targeting: Given the above issues with LBs and safeties covering space instead of players, though, you ought to expect Devin Duvernay to have a big day: This is a stick-draw concept, but the read on that outside LB is wild, because he just doesn’t move at all until the ball is thrown. He does nothing except hop. He doesn’t try to defend the run. He doesn’t try to defend the pass. He is frozen in place, except he hops a little bit. Not a good sign. Conclusion: For some reason, WVU thinks they have a rivalry with Texas. Oddly, they might play better in DKR than they do at home against Texas. But WVU is going to come out fired up on Saturday. Their fans will be fired up. They’ll make plays on defense that put us behind the chains. They will take advantage on offense, if we bail them out or give them free penalties. But if Texas is methodical and assignment sound, WVU cannot stack up with the horses Texas has, and Texas should win (and cover?) easily.
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Wouldn't the fact that his product is not apparently sufficiently specialized to demand a market premium indicate he is, in fact, more of a commodity?
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I love you, honey.
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Texas @ WVU will be at 2:30 Central on 10/5 - ABC
Katfid54 replied to Machinator's topic in Football
This may make mine redundant, but I have notes from WVU's game against NCState that I had planned to turn into a gif preview/analysis, if anyone is interested in that for WVU, given that we've never seen them before (and if I can find some damn time to do it). Didn't do one against Rice or oSu, because those seemed like pretty obvious examples where we knew what we were going to get. -
I think you're overstimating OU's OL and running game. I also think you're understimating the pressure OU's QB counter scheme put on defenses with Kyler. And you're understimating the benefit of having Hollywood Brown standing at the LOS, ready to go from 0-60 the moment the ball is flipped to him in the flat. This is Riley's worst offense at OU--and it's not close. No idea whether the D is any better or not. Sure didn't look like it against an outmatched UH team that has since repeatedly shit the bed. Hurts is and will always be a threat to beat us with his legs, because he can get the hard yards that Kyler/Baker would never try for. But this offense is significantly less lethal than any other OU offense of the past four-ish years.
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Gif analysis of me when LTtxFan doesn't get the joke:
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I find it more effective to turn my head and cough when reading this thread. But you do you.
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Gif analyses are for douchefucks.
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Proving, once again, that narrative writing is effective.
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Machinator, if you become a mod on OB, I'm going to come over there and infect you with malware right now.
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Good times. I remember Kenyatta Watson's being interminable, too, where all those Grayson guys were committing and the local news anchor looked exactly like Woody from Toy Story.
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I remember following DCG in recruiting and watching his commitment on a NOLA nightly news broadcast, where he was preceded by segments about a bunch of gruesome murders, shootings, and stabbings.
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