Jump to content
GET YOUR TAILGATE TICKETS NOW ×

quigley

Full Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1900

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by quigley

  1. quigley
    Out of context my ass
  2. quigley
    Hopefully, Trent Williams lays him out in practice.
  3. quigley
    They over-sampled MAGA hardcores. If this survey is correct, Harris wins relatively easily.
  4. quigley
    Fire. I knew where they were going from the first frames. Still moved me. Brilliant execution.
  5. quigley
    Penises are offended.
  6. quigley
    I don't know if I'm opening the door for Heisenberg
  7. quigley
    Raw milk for everyone! Make Listeria Great Again! Leave aside anything else the catastrophic effect on American health should be enough for people to end this.
  8. quigley
    I'm not pro-weed or anti-weed. Cause i don't know. Govt has obstructed meaningful research for decades. This position is idiotic more than anything, but it isn't the reason I'm disgusted by this guy. He has far worse ideas and has done worse shit for his state. Dude's a sellout of the highest order. He knows better. Disgrace.
  9. quigley
    You're correct and know more than a bit about this. I did survey design and analysis professionally for a while a decade ago. There are models you can use when response rate is so low but data becomes so unreliable that project becomes pointless. I had a project that was suffering from this didn't get funding. I did it anyway because I had some data. Someone else with less data and similarly low response rates actually got it published. So you may see why it's stuck in my craw. I think the pollsters are trying to avoid applying these models by arbitrarily balancing by voter registration and skewing when they don't meet their targets. I haven't gone back to dig up the methods because it's complicated and would be opening up old frustrations.
  10. quigley
    Not the first time you've mentioned sinkhole. Are you telling us something?
  11. quigley
    I agree with you that 493k 2020 non-voters is the story. But who are these people? Most of them (2/3), are not young so had the opportunity to vote in 2020 but didn't. Is Stacy Abrams machine mobilizing a bunch of new voters, again? Has Roe energized more women? Or has Elon placed brain control devices in a bunch of Georgia Bulldog fans? Is this good or bad news?
  12. quigley
    We're all agreeing. GOP has a huge problem. Their solution to the problem to control American society and suppress dissent: Win this election at all cost Consolidate power in the presidency -- check, thank you John Roberts Voter suppression -- check, thank you John Roberts Bring business and media interests under control of GOP machine by threats -- appears to be working based on Bezos's actions
  13. quigley
    We agree. The people I know aren't the ratfuckers but are ratfucker-adjacent (at least that's what they claim). They see the diminishing marginal returns on their current strategy. Not that their worried about the harms it causes, but because they see latching their wagon to rapidly declining 80 year old idiot as a bad bargain. None of the potential heirs to the mantle (Vance, Tucker, Don Jr) have the "charisma" of the orange buffoon. They've also painted themselves into an corner. They have to hope that we have collective amnesia and that Elon washes their 9 years of bad takes from the internet.
  14. quigley
    Early voting data that indicates a big increase in OLDER NEW voters could just as likely be good for Trump as Harris.
  15. quigley
    This is where I'm at. The GOP knows they need the low propensity voters only Trump brings out. Without Trump, they lose like 2018 and 2022. Plus Trump may try to run for president from prison in 2028 or may flee to Russia. It's all on the table. I know several chamber of commerce-type GOP. They have similar uncertainty. If they don't know, I don't know how anyone has any certainty.
  16. quigley
    Serious question. I know you know that the polls are flawed if not overtly cooked. Why do follow them so closely? This is not a criticism. I bet our worldview aligns closely and would enjoy your company IRL.
  17. quigley
    Polling has fucked us for the last decade. The polls have terribly low response rates (2.5% from NYT-Siena) so they have massive error bars. If they reported their true data, with possibly 10 - 15% margin of error (or more), people would stop listening to pollsters. The pollsters want to keep their jobs so they dial down the margin of error to ~ 5% and include the 50% threshold in their error. By doing this, they appear to be herding, even if they don't aren't explicitly compromising their data. Tight polling gives the appearance of a tight race so news outlets have a game to cover instead of focusing on policy and competency, which are boring. This reporting is a self-fulfilling prophecy, increasing anxiety and distrust in the populous.
  18. quigley
    Sure. He could run for governor, and I could run for governor too. So far, GOP that buck Trump don't remain in the GOP. Larry Hogan is a rare exception to this rule. We'll see if the rule changes if/when Trump loses again.
  19. quigley
    This isn't an admission of anything. Everybody pays for internal polling.
  20. quigley
    eg, WaPo not endorsing a candidate.
  21. quigley
    She's actually quite attractive.
  22. quigley
    Preach
  23. quigley
    I know someone who worked with Trump 20 years ago that claims she saw him snort adderall. She's reliable.
  24. quigley
    Because people are bad at math. Prices are still higher than before the pandemic so they don't see that the price rise built into the system by pandemic-era effects will take a long time to correct, if ever. Oh, and the don't look at their check and see that their buying power is better despite the price rise.
  25. quigley
    Fantastic data gathering, but i disagree with your optimism. 440K new voters with only a third being young doesn't fill me with hope. I'd love to be wrong with this election proving that get out the vote really matters, but I don't think that's the most likely way this thing ends.

Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...