quigley

I wish...WaPo published online donor locations yesterday. 75205 (highland park, dallas): Dem 600 donors, 200k donation; Rep 250 donors, 1m donated 77019 (river oaks, h-town): Dem 1200, 400k, Rep 200, 300k Some of our neighbors in our fancy communities empower leaders who hold anti-American ideals. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/trump-harris-donors-zip-code-map/?itid=mr_2

Elon's not original. Apparently, the Russians tried to bribe people to vote for Russian-back candidates in the recent election in Moldova. Didn't work.

Would video of him snorting adderall sink him?

This isn't hard. It's the old "enemy of my enemy is my friend" maxim. The Gaza fiasco benefits only a few Israeli and Palestinian leaders. NO ONE in the Dem Party or even Trump (after Nov 5) wants this politically, leave aside the horrific human cost.

Undecided voter in Santa Monica: without the LA Times endorsement, how will I konw who to vote for?

Kamala +1. I'd like the margin to be bigger because a bigger win will lessen the threat of the courts meddling and lessen the risk of random right wing violence. All I care about is the W, because life gets harder if the orange idiots wins. I think the House goes blue by a bigger margin than expected. Democratic Senators have done a GREAT job in keeping the Senate in play in a brutal cycle. Hopefully, Allred, Mucarsal-Powell or Osborn can make it 50 - 50ish. So I'm calling Kamala 270, House Dems 235, Senate 50-50 (Osborn = 50th vote). Need the trifect and leaders who want to use their power to actually help people.

Why the fuck is Dan Coats not cutting ads?

I would go further. It's more than annoying. It's frequently, including in this case, evidence that you can't accept another person's perspective even when that person's perspective is objectively more informed than yours. Lara Trump is a hack and doing her job, but she's gaslighting people who know it when they see it so it's stupid to try.

My hope: Kamala 270 + Senate toss up with Dems winning Senate races they're leading OH, WI, MI, NV, AZ + Nebraska independent. Nuke the filibuster, institute voting reform. Structural change.

Marshall opens for Taylor at a concert only for people who knock doors in PA?

The person I know (actually a UT law grad) is a professional friend. Our relationship isn't based in politics so I ask him about that on the side. It causes him a lot of anxiety. I don't anticipate seeing him until Christmas party season so after the election.

They've already used the threat of violence as a political tactic.Trump's paramilitary goons pushed to go to polling places in 2020 and 2022. There were many stories about this (link, link). Whether a shot is fired or someone is actually killed is besides the point. The goal is to intimidate people into not voting.

Only thing I'd quibble with is the right now part. Been happening from the jump.

Dolly catching strays, but i love it for the authenticity. (I love Dolly)

He didn't need/want the teleprompter in the past. Apparently, he now needs it to remember the fascist hits. Overall, guy looks like crap, lumbering, low energy. Kamala should be saying "Dude looks rough. Is he sick? Do you think this dude can make it 4 years." Challenge the bully and watch him slink away.

Sorry, I've forgotten, what's the magic number for Dem lead in early Pennsylvania voting?

I know people who view politics as entertainment and like Trump for the giggles. Won't it be fun to see him daily in Federal Court. Imagine the high jinx!

I hope your drive up is great because your drive back will be filled with tears.

Watch where you're pointing that son!

Folsom Prison.

The "rage" comment is getting a workout right now. For people who need allies not to be allies is the definition of irony and FAFO.

Jeans?

Sorry. This was supposed to be a response to one of @BamaATL 's posts. I've stated this in the presidential race thread, but it bears remembering here too: the low response rates of current polling make the margin of error HUGE. Anticipate a "polling error" * this year. Problem is, we won't know direction of error, but the direction is likely correlated amongst states with similar demographics. The magnitude of the error is likely to vary considerably amongst states. Battleground states OUTSIDE of polling error (538): AZ --> D + 7, Gallego > 50% WI --> D + 5, Baldwin > 50% NV --> D + 9, Rosen 49% PA --> D + 5, Casey 48% MI --> D + 4, Slotkin 48% MT --> R + 6, Sheehy 49% Battleground states WITHIN polling error: TX --> R + 3, 47 - 44 NE --> R + 3, 43 - 40 OH --> D + 3, 47 - 44 FL --> R + 4, 46 - 42 Dems need to hold Ohio, which is a pretty good bet unless Trump over-performs and has a coattail effect. If this happens, we're screwed anyway. Sadly Tester's probably toast. He's a great dude, but probably the last Dem from MT for many years. I'd trade MT for FL or TX. I'd prefer FL because I think Mucarsal-Powell is more progressive than Allred. NE seems like a hard hold also, but if that's what we get, we gladly take it to get to 50 - 50. * It isn't really a polling "error." Polls are predictive devices. Predictions have assumed error. The potential for error is increased with greater deviation from ideal samples. Samples so small that they can't reflect the voting population have greater potential for error.

2018 was such an inflection point in Florida politics. My first political donations were to the Andrew Gillum in 2018 Florida governor race. That same year, we also donated to the FL prop 4 ballot initiative which would've reinstated the franchise to 1.4 million people with a prior felony conviction. That's more than 10% of registered voters in the state. Gillum lost to Desantis by ~ 0.4% (35k votes). Prop 4 easily won (needed 60%, got 64%). Desentis instituted penalties and red tape that put franchise restitution out of reach for most people who could benefit from it. Florida is a purple-to-blue state that's been pulled to the GOP by voting restrictions.

Maybe the only endorsement he's gotten. Cruz couldn't / wouldn't protect his OWN WIFE from attacks from Trump. Who's supposed to believe Cruz will protect anyone from anything if it puts his political career in danger?