quigley

more succinctly put than i was going to do

Trump's already said he'd re-institute Muslim ban.

He and AOC are great communicators. I'm down with either or both (no not that way).

Trump's win has licensed open and continued bigotry for another generation, at least.

Sorry, but polling, when it's so close and the polling process is so flawed, don't mean shit. Play through the whistle and plan on playing through to Jan 20.

There's a correlation, but it's not as strong as those with education think it is.

Your parents and mine were probably among the 26 people in Oklahoma who voted for Carter in 1980.

Before we sanctify all oppressed, we have to remember that just because you're put down doesn't mean that you will necessarily rise above. To wit, I was talking to a legal Haitian immigrant with a good job (nurse) who seemed quite intelligent. She proudly declared that she was pro-Trump because of him "outlawing" abortion. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

If you tell MT is harder to poll than other places, basically it means that public polling is useless in MT. Tester's raised a ton of money. Is Sheehy wealthy enough to fund his own campaign like Rick Scott?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War This conflict upended Russian and Asian history and changed the dynamic between East-West. The conflict you're referring to occurred after the atomic bombs had been dropped. The Japanese had already lost.

In a past life, I did survey design. In explaining the variability in the NYT/Siena poll, Nate Cohn was discussing the response rate to their calls. Their response rate is 2.5%. Big numbers can overcome very low response rate, but, if I recall correctly, 500-1000 responses "high quality" polls get isn't enough. These people aren't stupid, and I'm sure they have models that can correct for stuff that are well beyond my expertise. But if this is typical of political polling response rate, current political polling is mostly trash. The most heartening thing I take from the look underneath the hood that NYT provided is their transparency. It also explains the rationale other election modelers use for including non-polling data (fund-raising, economic data, eg).

Japan, Afghanistan, and Chechnya have also given them Ls.

It'll be blamed on antifa.

Just curious, what do you think was the tipping point for the 3 old dudes not voting for Trump?

Has Ralston said this?

I'd take the trade all day every day. FL is growing, 21 EC votes in 1988, now 30. PA 25 to 19 over the same period.

Overall was less optimistic, but that's is personality too. Only wanted to think about blue wall. Feels good about MI, WI, NE-2. He literally said "fucking PA."

I assumed this was a troll/joke, but Mark Robinson. Is this true?

My point was that there have been other candidates for worse QB performance. For me, Bell wasn't as bad as the others, but add it the pile. What @Constant said above. Anyone with eyes can tell Hawkins was a better decision-maker as true freshman, especially the most important constituency, the players. Gaslighting them throughout the week could FURTHER denigrate confidence in the offensive coaching. Plus, the players seem to like Hawkins more. Hawkins recklessness means there's a good chance Arnold sees the field again this year, but the coaches need to take his helmet away and send him to therapy this week. There were some positives for OU that game. Obviously, the defensive performance showed that OU's good early season performances could be replicated versus top-flight athletes. They rotated a bunch of players in and held up well against a really good team. It's proof of concept that the defense can keep up with some of the best offenses in the country. And the Sooners play several of the best offenses in the country: Texas, Mississippi, LSU, Alabama (possibly Missouri). The OL was awful, but they performed about to my expectations. The rs-freshman left guard Ozeta played like someone facing his first big test. He'll get better. The OL looks like they may be getting a little healthier too. Hawkins time on the field showed that OU can move the ball against a good defense despite the OL when the QB makes good reads. OU's skill position talent may have started sorting itself out also. The freshman RB Tatum looked good, and got hurt. Sophomore WR Jaquaize Pettaway did some good things. You can see the outlines of a functional RB rotation in Barnes and Tatum. Burks, Anderson, and Pettaway give OU a functional pass catching core (when they all get healthy). Because of the defensive excellence, the offense just needs to get healthy and show competency. OU's goal is to be competitive in every game and get four more wins (@ Auburn, SCar, Maine, @ LSU?). Then clean house on the offensive coaching staff after the season.

Bedenbaugh was down on NIL until the Cayden Green departure, apparently. He's now got 2 top ten OT coming in. His OLs get better throughout the season. He's been at OU since 2013, I can't think of a year that OU's OL hasn't been good if not great by season's end. In the SEC, facing good DL on the regular, will his slow developmental style cost OU games early in the season? I was frustrated by how good Emmett Jones's WR at Kansas and TxTech looked vs the OU defense (lots of WR looked good vs OU in that era). Last year, Jones's development of OU's WR room was great. This year, the Sooners # 2, 3, and 4 wide receivers have been injured. The extreme bad injury luck makes Jones a keep, for now. DeMarco can point to the development of Eric Gray. Who else? Finley's TEs have sucked outside of Braden Willis (7th round draft pick). Littrell had ONE good offensive year as a coordinator (when his head coach was an offensive guy, Larry Fedora). None of these three have the pedigree to survive a similar performance.

My friend in the PAC said exactly the same thing.

I think Arnold should go to a smaller school and get his head straight. I'm afraid he'll end up at UCLA or A&M where he has too much attention and can't recover. Mississippi St to reunite with Lebby may be another spot.

The other qualifier you need is "since Stoops" because the 1990s had several contenders for worst ever. Since Stoops, the only games that come to mind off the top of my head are Landry Jones vs Nebraska in 2009 (FIVE interceptions) or Trevor Knight vs WVU in 2013 (Heupal as OC). In both years, the OLs improved throughout the year, and the offenses became "passable" for a power conference. I'm not saying this will happen this year. The 2009 offense had DeMarco and Ryan Broyles. In 2014, Sterling Shepard and Jalen Saunders were running past people. Unless Pettyway is a revelation or Anderson and Burks get healthy, there isn't the skill position talent OU expected.

I've been down on OU's offensive coaches except Bedenbaugh and Emmett Jones (WR). I think both get a pass this year because of prior performance. I'm done with Murray, Finley, and Littrell (3 dude who played at OU).

Davis Beville would like a word.