quigley

Need a trifecta to make thing happen. Harris-Walz coattails will be important to win House and Senate races. #demhouse #demsenate

trump: rearviewmirror

During Allred's speech, I was thinking Crockett would be his best surrogate in October. If she doesn't run for Senate in 2026, the Dems have messed up badly.

He's got rosacea, a skin condition that cause his redness and gets worse in the sun. I don't care about him at all, but it would be a really sly debate technique to show sympathy for him about this problem.

When looking at polls, I drop top/bottom and average others. Republicans viewed MD and NM as targets. If the MD race is not competitive, it is a testament to Alsobrooks and Wes Moore. Alsobrooks won, I would say in an upset, a primary against a rich white centerist Dem congressman from the largest county in the state (Trone). He got funding from outside and used his own money. As a minority woman from a poor county who had less money, Alsobrooks beat him. Hogan was a great get for Reps. Hogan remains very popular and is well-funded. Hogan vs Trone would have been Hogan vs worse Hogan. Alsobrooks still has less name-ID than Hogan, but she's out running and winning.

This is a classic case of the "iceberg principle", we aren't seeing most of what's going on. All the Democratic actors here are playing their roles, no one is an idiot. We need to let it simmer and play out. Fact: Foreign policy doesn't drive election results. Fact: Bibi and Hamas have vested interests in continuing the conflict. Fact: Both the Israeli people and Palestinians are pressuring their leaders to resolve the situation, unsuccessfully. Fact: US influence here is limited but the interests of the leaders of the conflicting groups. Fact: Harris needs voters sympathetic to Palestinian cause in MI and Israeli cause in PA and FL to win. Fact: Jews donate a lot to Democratic presidential campaigns. Fact: Since Oct 7th and the Israeli response, there has been a split along generational lines between older Jews (more pro-Israel) and younger Jews (more pro-Palestinian). Fact: Younger voters, in general, are more sympathetic to the Palestinian perspective. Fact: Foreign policy doesn't drive election results. There's no benefit to Harris to elevating this topic at this time. If events demand it, she can retreat to a position broad, established policy that isn't currently being enforced in the Israeli-Palestinian context: US military aid cannot be used against civilians.

There are basically 11 contested senate races this cycle, listed below with the state's partisan lean (Cook, via Wiki). WV is lost so Dem need to win 9 to get to a 50-50 tie. The Dems are doing really well due to a combination of good candidates and strategy and republican stupidity. They lead in 8 so they need to get one of FL, TX, MT. Lean Comments (average of polls from 538; ++ = quigley donated) MD D+14 Former popular Rep vs Dem Alsobrooks; Dem up but limited polling --> watch out here NM D+3 Incumbent Heinrich-D lead is ~ 6 over daughter of former Rep senator --> watch out here MI R+1 Slotkin-D up 3-5 NV R+1 Rosen-D up 5-8, wide poll results in hard to poll state AZ R+2 Gallego-D up ~ 6; bad R candidate; ++ PA R+2 Casey-D up 6-8 WI R+2 Baldwin-D up ~ 7 FL R+3 Mucarsel-Powell-D down 4; Rep candidate with tons of $; ++ TX R+5 Cruz 3-4; ++ OH R+6 Brown-D up 5-6; ++ MT R+11 4 of 5 polls Tester-D down; only 1 quality poll, Emerson, Rep +2; ++ Here's why you should focus your attention on Senate races, particularly FL and TX: 1. Harris-Walz will win, but if they don't, we're screwed anyway. 2. Harris has to show results and will need a trifecta to do so. House should be carried to Dems by Harris's coattails. 3. Brown and Tester are great (esp Brown), but they will be last Dem Senators from OH and MT for a while. 4. Nate Silver is an ass, but he's right about small dollar donations not mattering for presidential race funding. I give in big enough chunks that I get calls from actual Senate candidates, and my donations are inconsequential at the presidential level. 5. Dems need to make FL or TX swing blue to have a shot at maintaining Senate control moving forward because WV, MT and OH seats will disappear at some point (2 may be gone in November). Plus, if either FL or TX go blue, republican path 270 at any point become super hard. 6. I've donated the most to Mucarsel-Powell this year because I have great personal antipathy to Rick Scott and because I think, with abortion on the ballot, she *should* have a better path to victory. Many of you live in or have deep connections to TX, and Cruz is an easy villain also so please go after him too.

The night that Biden backed out, we donated to Mucarsel-Powell (Democrat running against Scott for US Senate from FL). Both the Buckeyes and Gator-noles have abortion measures and US Senate races in November. Harris and Sherrod Brown have a lot of money. Rick Scott is a cartoon villain who has been elevated to the Senate. Help get him out.

Gasso indirectly indicated that they'd recruited Canady hard when Patty was interviewed after the 2023 OU-Stanford game in the WCWS. Canady obviously chose a school and program with a very different vibe than OU softball. That vibe is the reason that I think Canady doesn't end up in Norman this time also. As others have indicated, going from Palo Alto to Norman is a big jump. Add to it joining a hyper-religious group like Sooners softball. It isn't for a lot of people. Canady will probably find a better overall fit than OU (ball, books, bucks). Each school has it's own rules, but I know that there are some comparable colleges that will grant a diploma to students who completed a large percent of their credits at the institution (75%, eg). So maybe she can still get a Stanford degree if she's completed three years academically (adding pre-college and off semester credits). Someone here may have knowledge of Stanford's system. I wonder why Duke isn't in the picture. It's comparable academically, a better overall softball program (averaged 6.5 runs/game), and have an impressive young Black woman as coach. Maybe no NIL? Texas is probably the best overall fit, but would Mike White be the person you want to play for if you could choose anyone?

I think it went Coleman, SOMEONE ,Alo, Jennings last year, but I could be wrong.

Two of the players who were supposed to provide power this year have disappointed, one relatively, one completely. Jennings hit ~ 30 homers last year and has 5 this year. She is still clutch and has a > 400 average overall, but the power isn't there. Sanders also hit about 30 homers last year, and she been just plain bad. I think more strikeouts than hits, and only 220 overall. She's sitting a lot. That said, OU still leads the nation in team batting average (390) on base % (480), slugging (715), and runs per game (9). But last year they were scoring 10 a game. Jayda Coleman is putting together a player of the year case with a 500 batting average, 640 on base, 8 HR, 12/12 stolen bases, and outstanding defense.

Back in the day, middle school was well known to be more dangerous than high school because most of the REALLY dangerous kids had been dismissed or left before high school.

Very informed. Some added context: Offense note 2021 --> 2022 OU's offensive in fancy stats took a big step back from top 5 to top 20 - 25. Points per game fell "only" 7 because OU had so many more drives per game. Offense, running game: Lebby will feel more comfortable running Gabriel, who's an asset running the ball. The threat of the QB run game will mitigate the loss of Brayden Willis, who was a true asset as a blocker. The RB position will be as good as last year running the ball. The OL showed surprising proficiency run blocking vs a good Florida St front 7. Offense, passing game: Gabriel is himself. Above average deep ball, avoids the middle of the field. It's unusal to see big jump in QB this late in his career. RB have to get better in pass protection, and we don't know if they can catch. WR needs at least one more transfer and/or one of the newcomers over the last couple of years to pop (5 new last year + 3 this year). OL was a disaster in pass pro vs FSU. Rouse will improve that, but it's a safe assumption that OU's OL pass protection will be worse with the loss of Anton Harrison (bigger loss than Mims?). Defense note 2021 --> 2022 OU's defense gave up 4 ppg more last year but efficiency stayed about the same because they faced so many more drives. This is despite OU losing many of their best defensive players from the 2021 team (entire DL, best LB, best DB). Defense, running game: OU's DL was pushed around last year. Portal adds Lacy and Sears may at least hold point of attack better. Venable's LBs have a history of superlative play that wasn't shown last year. Improvement here will be expected. Safety play should also be better. Defense, passing game: OU couldn't rush the QB. That SHOULD change with several options at DE/Edge added in recruiting/portal (top high school Edge, McCullough, Bothroyd, Ford). LBs in zone seemed to develop a sense of playing receivers rather than areas of grass as the season progressed. DB play gradually improved as the year went on. At least there were few flat out busts in the latter half of the year. DB recruiting class was outstanding.

Both were OU targets. The Sooners got Andrel Anthony from Michigan, who's a great get, but probably need to get at least one more WR from the portal.

I appreciate @Sawbonz measured take and @Spankytoes situation. Because of the high community prevalence of the infection, the proper way to think of decision to get the vaccine is: __ get vaccine __ get infection without vaccine Rates of cardiac/vascular disease from infection withOUT vaccine are FAR higher than from the vaccine for the general population. This has been shown repeatedly. The rates of myocarditis from the vaccine are higher in adolescent and young men but are still less than rates of cardiac disease after infection. Of course there are other benefits from getting the vaccine. Yes, I'm an expert in this field who's oh so tired of talking about this. Ok no more from me about this.

I've read your posts on here, and I'm sad for your situation. But your conclusions about your own situation require some context. PM me please.

NIL holdout. Inevitable.

Yeah, we're on the same page. John Birch Society begat Goldwater. Long game.

1981 was when Reagan took office. The revanchist impulses of the Republican party were just taking off. This is a long game.

McCarthy's tedious speaking style is enough to vote him out.

Not that I doubt her response, but did you do this personally?

OU should "push hard" for a permanent WR coach first. They've got L'Damain Washington stuck with the interim tag still. Mims seems like a really good guy overall. Will be missed on several fronts.

The mgoblog guys have long loved Anthony's upside. He had limited opportunity due to Michigan's many WR options and may have bad hands. But he's got good size, excellent speed, and good route running. OU offered already also.

no politics

Played out as a rerun of the Tulane - OU game in Sep 2021 until the last Tulane drive (Green Wave turned it over on downs at midfield). Riley kept Mike Stoops after the defensive meltdown in the CFP semi-final Rose Bowl game so we'll see what he does here with Grinch. Stoops was a competent strategist but had terrible people skills so he didn't recruit well or communicate with players. Grinch seems to be well-liked by his players, but his under-performing units with obvious developmental failures make it hard for him to recruit to talent. His strategies make people who know defensive football cringe. The defensive staff has at least one good coach, Shaun Nua. He has produced as a recruiter and developer. The rest of the staff is expendable.