All the guy did was move to OU and create an offense that's really fun and effective. Then he got the head coaching job and has won the conference title every year so far (and is within two games of doing it again), while beating his school's leading rivals 9 out of 10 times, going 14-4 vs top 25, 7-3 vs top 10, 21-6 in one possession games, and 55-9 overall. His recruiting is just now approaching the Clemson/Ga/Bama/Ohio St level, despite OU not being fully in the bag game like those others schools (see the Sooners lack of interest from players who want the full bag).
This year his offense is down. "Down" means FEI rank 16th, FPI efficiency ranking 8th, yards/play 8th. He's finally got a defensive coordinator who isn't a jerk, and the defense has improve from trash fire to competent and will probably be better in the coming years based on recruiting alone.
Who are the other coaches with comparable/better national championship odds?
Active coaches with national championships:
Saban: GOAT, but old, not leaving Bama (except if Texas opens).
Corch O: CEO coach whose offense sucks without transcendent skill position talent. LSU just fired him.
Dabo: CEO head coach whose offense sucks this year without transcendent skill position talent. Not leaving Clemson.
Jimbo: Surprisingly only 56, but looks terrible. Has more guaranteed money than any other coach in America, college or pro, in any sport (I think). One natl championship at FSU and then the program cratered. Best seasons at A&M was last year when he lost to Bama by 4 TDs and this year when he's lost 3 times. Seems to need to cheat to recruit.
Mack Brown: Yes, LSU should hire Mack Brown.
Coaches without a national championship but look like they could win one:
Ryan Day: Young, 42 (Riley's 38), but not leaving Ohio St. He's #1 on the list to be next NEW national championship winning coach based on the based of operations and his performance.
Brian Kelly: Old, looks even older. ND was thought to be his dream job so not leaving. Based on his sideline demeanor, you'd be hiring @closetojumping with good scheme knowledge. His defensive coordinator, Marcus Freeman, may be the best coach on the staff.
James Franklin: Good recruiter of players and staff. 1-5 vs Ohio St but most of those losses were close. Nicknamed Frames Jacklin because of his boggling in game decision making. Compare his record at Penn St, 67–32, to Riley's.
Mario Cristobol: Good recruiter of players and staff but may need Nike $ to do it. Despite the PAC12 being WAY DOWN, he's only won one conference title. He ascended to HC job at Oregon the same year Riley did at OU. Compare 34–12 his record to Riley's.
The only coaches that have more proven quality then Riley who aren't fossils are Dabo, Jimbo, and Day. I'd take Riley over Dabo and Jimbo regardless, but none of these three are moving anyway.
Who else are you thinking?