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quigley

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Everything posted by quigley

  1. You bring up several important, but nuanced points. I'm talking about the small farmers who I grew up with. I know they are racists. The n-word was not normalized, it was normal. I know they cashed the checks. But 2 things: the checks weren't that big and it cuts against the way they view of themselves. Industrial farming got the biggest bailout. We know that industrial farming provides the most product, and it gets a disproportionate amount of subsidy. Small farmers are more numerous, less overall productive, and get disproportionately less subsidy (data and reference below). Plus, small farmer aren't comfortable on the public dole (even though they've been subsidized for decades--don't bring that up), for the same reason they feel comfortable using the n-word. The discrepancy is between reality and self perception, which we all also acknowledge. https://www.ewg.org/interactive-maps/2021-farm-subsidies-ballooned-under-trump/ For example, through the MFP in 2018 and 2019: The top 1 percent of recipients received 16 percent of payments, with an average total payment for both years of $524,298 per farm. The top 10 percent received 58 percent of payments, with an average total payment of $185,340. The bottom 80 percent of recipients received only 23 percent of payments – an average payment for both years of only $9,109 per recipient.
  2. It's true that we don't know any of the methods for Selzer's polling. That said, she's seen a MASSIVE shift just this cycle: - this summer: Trump ahead big when it was Trump-Biden - August: Trump up 4 - October: Harris up 3 Rather than this election being won because of abortion only, I would contend that the deciding factor would be abortion plus candidate quality. Harris has run a great campaign and tacked to the center. Trump has set himself on fire in new and exciting ways and tacked to the right.
  3. If they have Trump up 5 in IA, Harris wins and Dems likely keep Senate (maybe just Osborn, but I'll take it).
  4. If you know farmers, they HATE that shit. Small farmers are independent people who WANT TO FARM. They're smart, self-sufficient problem solvers who don't like being told what to do. And they don't want handouts.
  5. I know even less about UK politics than US politics, but there are significant hurdles using national surveys in the US. We don't think FL votes like OH or that NV votes like TN. Sample plus the locality of races here may make extrapolating their methods harder.
  6. I mean, if Harris swings IA 14 percent ( -8 to +6), you're talking Obama 2008 and Dems in the Senate 52-48 and House like + 40. That would be a true repudiation of Trump-ism. @G650 and @Bozo_Casanova and I would be arguing about policy rather and working together to save democracy
  7. Thank you for posting this and including the whole article. Polling needs to change, and this is one way to do it. However, this is "conducted online among 10,992 voters earlier in October" My biggest questions are how they recruited this sample and what and how many variable they're setting the regression up for.
  8. Yes, rotten bear road kill for breakfast in my house.
  9. This clip + the almost falling while trying to get in a truck are how I want him to be remembered. CLOWN. FUCKING. SHOW.
  10. Pelosi's was most effective House leader since ??? forever??? She's a boss. Her words to Biden set this thing up. I would love for her to be remember as the greatest legislator of this generation (over that ghoul from KY).
  11. Don't care. If Selzer's off by 5 and Trump wins IA by 2, Harris will win WI, PA, and maybe OH (!?!?). More importantly, Dems win Senate races in WI, PA, MI, OH. Osborn in NE has a good shot too based on the IA. GOP needs to win Senate races in NE, MT, TX, and FL. Those aren't all independent of each other so I'd put the likelihood of Senate staying 50-50 as better than even.
  12. I mean, it's Dobbs ("dog catches car"), but also, hopefully, America has figured out that they can have reality TV on TV and not in politics.
  13. So much gold this morning. FL, I see you.
  14. Serious question: can we impeach these fuckers? How can we talk of "equal time" in a world where Fox has existed for 35 years?
  15. There's a strong argument to be made that Harris/Walz left bushels on the field by not making a bigger deal about how Trump's tariff and trade policies in general will destabilize farm commodity prices. As I'm sure it's been mentioned, if Harris is close in IA, it's a harbinger that WI and OH and PA are all really good.
  16. The LEAST LIKELY outcome this time is 5 of 7 states within a point or two (as the polling averages have them). Herding + bad process. As you've said, 1/3 of the total ballots have been cast and > 90% people say they know who their voting for. There aren't 4-5 point swings to be made. This last minute publishing of a Harris push is for clicks.
  17. I agree with you but... - Hillary Clinton lost white women - it's a poll --> and polls suck
  18. looked like he had practice
  19. I know the history and know the risk. I have spent money and time supporting Dems to opposite Trump / GOP since 2015. I also know the people around me. I'm a minority who grew up in the sticks of Oklahoma in the 1970s. The public library in the county seat still had "colored" over one of the restroom doors and water fountains. I've experienced the hate you are talking about. Demonizing the other is what Trump wants. If we do it, we are working atomize our country further. I like spy novels and have seen Ken Follett but not read him. Will check it out.
  20. Of course I didn't say or even assume all. And I agree, by definition, if they vote for Trump, they have poor political judgement. I cabin my trust of everyone. I can trust some people with some things and other people with others. I have a sliding scale. Regarding your specific example of child care, I don't think being a Trump support eliminates your ability to care for children. We've had people I assume are Trump supports care for our daughter.
  21. "Trump and Elon have crystalized for me that there are way more gullible, unintelligent people in the U.S. than I ever realized...They also helped me realize the number of people in the U.S. with little to no integrity or morals is far higher than I ever realized." Sorry. I extrapolated from this. Who were you referring to if not Trump supporters?
  22. How is it gone? An 80 year old white man who is showing early signs of dementia is a coin flip from the presidency.
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