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Wulaw Horn

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Wulaw Horn last won the day on September 11 2021

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  1. And they beat Michigan who sort of sucks but that was a manly scheduling up game for them.
  2. I will say this- the committee did have a shit job this year as the year you absolutely HAVE to put 9-3 Texas in bc otherwise who would ever play a tough OOC game in their life? Having 7 SEC teams with 2 losses ended up being a real motherfucker. I’m sure they have rather made their point with 9-3 Texas over 11-2 BYU with nobody on the OOC schedule than have to fuck with this shit. just bounce Oklahoma. Ok reflection they suck- they cheated against Auburn in an institutionally planned way not a block in the back that got missed kind of way, and nobody cares about them in the SEC or on TV. Fuck it- done.
  3. Who said he wasn’t? Go read what he wrote. It was Helo level dumb. It got called out and negged and he got mocked. Then my response to you wasn’t that he should be banned from doing it but if he wants to be that dumb he shouldn’t do it here. You have crowdsource for a reason. If he keeps posting that will happen.
  4. If they want to play a reasonable schedule being in a pretty poor conference they could make that happen. Go schedule two of Michigan, Ohio state, Penn state, USC, Oregon or a top 1/2 SEC team. Go look, instead, at who they chose to schedule.
  5. Shit man. Go read a million posts I have on here where I debate or talk about things in good faith. I snap when there is abject unmitigated stupidity and do it more at horns than anyone else. You got the wrong dude here man.
  6. I wasn’t talking about you. I was talking about the Mormon fucking idiot on his way to being begged to oblivion for being fucking retarded. That was the point- they (byu guy) can advocate for whoever he wants but he doesn’t have to be fucking retarded on this board. We have enough regards of our own to keep in line that we don’t need to invite in the dumbest of other fan bases. You and I have had civil conversations the whole time. The byu clown can fuck his own face.
  7. Sure. For being probabilistic about what we’re to happen if other outcomes were to happen around the country that then didn’t you are the biggest and most voluminous dipshit midwit on here.
  8. Sure. They don’t need to be fucking retarded on our board while they do it.
  9. Holy shit you fucking retard. This is literally the dumbest thing I’ve seen posted all day.
  10. Dude- they don’t give fair odds in gambling. The house has a rake. And I have no idea how big or small it is during in game betting like that. Thus the question mark. I’m guessing if they are giving +138 they don’t think it’s a 42% chance but rather less than that. Do you think they’d give even odds if they thought it was 50/50? Absolutely not. That’s why when they price with a point spread it’s -110. The more you know. from chat gpt: Yep — you’re right on the instincts. Short answer: convert the +138 to an implied probability (≈ 42.02%) and then remember that number almost certainly overstates Texas’s “true” probability because futures markets carry an overround (vig) and extra margin for long-term liability. Here’s a clean way to think about it and a quick cheat-sheet you can use without the whole 24-team board. 1) Break-even implied probability +138 → Implied=100138+100=100238≈42.02%Implied=138+100100=238100≈42.02% That’s the percentage you’d need to be correct long-term to break even at +138. 2) Futures vig / overround — how to remove it The bookmaker’s overround (sum of implied probs − 100%) tells you how much juice is baked in. If you don’t have the full market, use a plausible overround estimate for futures. Futures markets typically carry substantially higheroverrounds than simple spread markets — commonly ~5% to 15%, sometimes even 15–25% on messy, auto-bid/auto-qualify markets. To estimate the fair probability, divide the implied probability by (1 + overround). Example formula: pfair≈pimplied1+overroundpfair≈1+overroundpimplied 3) Quick examples using +138 (implied 42.02%): If overround = 5% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.05 = 40.02% If overround = 10% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.10 = 38.20% If overround = 15% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.15 = 36.54% If overround = 20% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.20 = 35.02% So depending on how juicy the futures book is, Vegas’s actual internal estimate for Texas might be anywhere from ~35–40% (or even lower on a heavily-vigged market), not the raw 42%. 4) Why futures carry more juice Long liability horizon: bettors can hedge many ways; book wants protection. Thin markets: fewer bettors → larger margins to manage risk. Complexity (auto bids, tie-ins, auto-qualifying slots): more uncertainty, so bigger cuts. Public money bias: shops shade prices to reduce exposure on popular teams. 5) Practical next steps (if you want to quantify it): If you can paste a subset of the market (even the top 6–8 teams) I’ll sum implied probs and compute overround. Or I can pull current market consensus/aggregate odds and compute the true overround (I’d need to search the boards). If you just want a quick rule: assume ~10% overround on a complicated futures market and treat +138 as closer to ~38% true. You were right to distrust the raw 42% — treat that as the break-even number, not Vegas’s unbiased belief. Want me to pull some current market numbers and do the math on the whole playoff field?
  11. You can absolutely believe it is what I said it is- a 5% outcome right now that becomes a real conversation if things break our way this weekend. Bet against it being a thing that happens but root line he’ll for Georgia, Ohio state and Tech to win by 50 and the ACC title game to be a flaming abortion that sets football back 50 years and shames the conference. If all that happened there’s just no logical reason for it not to be Texas. That doesn’t mean it will be Texas but there’s no logical reason for it not to be.
  12. They were ahead of us last week so we have to jump them. I’m curious about the Disney part of the question you didn’t answer. From everyone. I think it’s majority vote but it wouldn’t surprise me if the answer was “none at all” either.
  13. If they do that this Tuesday we have a chance. Monday #11 BYU stays ahead of us if they have a big loss. Then it becomes us and bama and Oklahoma and Miami and Domers for 3 spots. We likely to get left out? Probably. But you can’t say now for sure. remember before we best aggy on Friday everyone saying Monday no way no way but then they saw the game and changed their mind? Same thing can happen. See post above yours where I ask how much say Disney has on the committee. There is your answer.
  14. How much say do yall think Disney has in this? A little bit? A lot? Majority vote? No say at all? I promise they don’t want Vandy, Miami or Utah in ahead of Arch and Texas.
  15. Funny thing is advertisers love Texas playing OsU and drawing 18.3M viewers at height of game even more than the stupid college selection show. We need to play major hard ball behind the scenes and say if we are ranked behind shitty ass treats that we beat (Vandy) or that can’t win basically a G5 conference (Miami) then we are never playing up OOC again.
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