Jump to content

Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
  • Posts

    21346
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Holy shit you fucking retard. This is literally the dumbest thing I’ve seen posted all day.
  2. Dude- they don’t give fair odds in gambling. The house has a rake. And I have no idea how big or small it is during in game betting like that. Thus the question mark. I’m guessing if they are giving +138 they don’t think it’s a 42% chance but rather less than that. Do you think they’d give even odds if they thought it was 50/50? Absolutely not. That’s why when they price with a point spread it’s -110. The more you know. from chat gpt: Yep — you’re right on the instincts. Short answer: convert the +138 to an implied probability (≈ 42.02%) and then remember that number almost certainly overstates Texas’s “true” probability because futures markets carry an overround (vig) and extra margin for long-term liability. Here’s a clean way to think about it and a quick cheat-sheet you can use without the whole 24-team board. 1) Break-even implied probability +138 → Implied=100138+100=100238≈42.02%Implied=138+100100=238100≈42.02% That’s the percentage you’d need to be correct long-term to break even at +138. 2) Futures vig / overround — how to remove it The bookmaker’s overround (sum of implied probs − 100%) tells you how much juice is baked in. If you don’t have the full market, use a plausible overround estimate for futures. Futures markets typically carry substantially higheroverrounds than simple spread markets — commonly ~5% to 15%, sometimes even 15–25% on messy, auto-bid/auto-qualify markets. To estimate the fair probability, divide the implied probability by (1 + overround). Example formula: pfair≈pimplied1+overroundpfair≈1+overroundpimplied 3) Quick examples using +138 (implied 42.02%): If overround = 5% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.05 = 40.02% If overround = 10% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.10 = 38.20% If overround = 15% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.15 = 36.54% If overround = 20% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.20 = 35.02% So depending on how juicy the futures book is, Vegas’s actual internal estimate for Texas might be anywhere from ~35–40% (or even lower on a heavily-vigged market), not the raw 42%. 4) Why futures carry more juice Long liability horizon: bettors can hedge many ways; book wants protection. Thin markets: fewer bettors → larger margins to manage risk. Complexity (auto bids, tie-ins, auto-qualifying slots): more uncertainty, so bigger cuts. Public money bias: shops shade prices to reduce exposure on popular teams. 5) Practical next steps (if you want to quantify it): If you can paste a subset of the market (even the top 6–8 teams) I’ll sum implied probs and compute overround. Or I can pull current market consensus/aggregate odds and compute the true overround (I’d need to search the boards). If you just want a quick rule: assume ~10% overround on a complicated futures market and treat +138 as closer to ~38% true. You were right to distrust the raw 42% — treat that as the break-even number, not Vegas’s unbiased belief. Want me to pull some current market numbers and do the math on the whole playoff field?
  3. You can absolutely believe it is what I said it is- a 5% outcome right now that becomes a real conversation if things break our way this weekend. Bet against it being a thing that happens but root line he’ll for Georgia, Ohio state and Tech to win by 50 and the ACC title game to be a flaming abortion that sets football back 50 years and shames the conference. If all that happened there’s just no logical reason for it not to be Texas. That doesn’t mean it will be Texas but there’s no logical reason for it not to be.
  4. They were ahead of us last week so we have to jump them. I’m curious about the Disney part of the question you didn’t answer. From everyone. I think it’s majority vote but it wouldn’t surprise me if the answer was “none at all” either.
  5. If they do that this Tuesday we have a chance. Monday #11 BYU stays ahead of us if they have a big loss. Then it becomes us and bama and Oklahoma and Miami and Domers for 3 spots. We likely to get left out? Probably. But you can’t say now for sure. remember before we best aggy on Friday everyone saying Monday no way no way but then they saw the game and changed their mind? Same thing can happen. See post above yours where I ask how much say Disney has on the committee. There is your answer.
  6. How much say do yall think Disney has in this? A little bit? A lot? Majority vote? No say at all? I promise they don’t want Vandy, Miami or Utah in ahead of Arch and Texas.
  7. Funny thing is advertisers love Texas playing OsU and drawing 18.3M viewers at height of game even more than the stupid college selection show. We need to play major hard ball behind the scenes and say if we are ranked behind shitty ass treats that we beat (Vandy) or that can’t win basically a G5 conference (Miami) then we are never playing up OOC again.
  8. Dont have to be ahead of BYU. In that scenario they lose big to Tech and eliminate themselves. Have to be ahead of Utah, Vandy and Miami. I think we could jump Miami if there’s enough chaos that they are forced to do a rethink of everything. Not super likely, but possible. Miami is a bigger sticking point than Vandy to my way of thinking. That’s why it was interesting to me that the NYT had us at 5% and Miami at 1% (Vandy had zero chance).
  9. Texas enters the week at 12 or 13 ahead of Utah and Vandy. BYU and Bama get decimated. Ohio State wins big. The voters look around and say hey- we all know Texas is a top 10 or 12 team. They lost close at #1 and were in a 1 score game in the 4th quarter at #2. They’ve beaten 3 quality teams more than anyone else can say. TV loves them. We want to reward tough non conference schedules. Fuck it- let’s put them in- nobody else can clearly say they deserve it more (of the last couple teams being looked at for the final spot). not likely but there’s your 5% chance. It wasn’t likely they’d leave FSU out after going undefeated and winning 3 games without their starting QB. But they did.
  10. There wasn’t any. It’s been a truly bizarre year in that sense. During the OU v LSU game Texas got all the way up to +138 to make the playoffs. Thats like a 40% chance? 33%? Something like that.
  11. NYT model has us at 5%. That strikes me as about right. It’s a super unlikely outcome but what else do I have better to do right this minute? Tomorrow will be work and shit. Today can discuss and dream.
  12. NYT model with Texas having a 5% chance of making the playoffs (Miami at 1%, Vandy lower). That seems low for Miami to me and about right for Texas.
  13. And Texas scheduled their loss in the preseason and they said that matters too. And, in a lot of ways TV will care more about maintaining early season games between heavyweights than conference title games going away. that’s certainly the way I would expect it to go but data is data and we saw FSU bounced after a win in their title game when everyone watching felt it was obvious. Most likely is bama staying in no matter what. Next most likely is Miami taking their spot. Least likely is Texas. It’s a possibility greater than 0 is all I’m saying.
  14. I mean if it’s bama 10, BYU 11 and Texas 12 you sure? It’s not super likely or anything but again, they can do ANYTHING they want in there with no justification and I suspect Disney has a lot of sway in there. I’m not gambling on it. I’m not counting on it. I’m just saying I’d like for just one time this year things to break our way around the country and see what that conversation looks and sounds like. everyone said that non3 loss team can go as an at large but Bama will be 3 losses too. So, something will have to give. How that game (and all the others) look should absolutely matter.
  15. It’s so fucking close between 12-13-14. Look at that spread versus 12 and 11 or 11 and 10 for example. This is a VERY soft 14. the committee can and should put us at 12. If that happens there is a chance. Not a good one, but we didn’t have a good chance in 2023 until the conference championship games changed a lot of perceptions. It was going to be undefeated Washington, Michigan, Georgia and FSU until it wasn’t.
  16. It’s a big reason Florida and Georgia beat us. It’s a real path to Tech beating us and I wouldn’t say it wasn’t possible, but yeah that’s not where I’d put my money.
  17. Sure. And you said no other fanbase would see it that way and I’m telling you they absolutely would. As would most of the public as Texas is a public team. All of which influences the lines. If y’all match up with an SEC team we should have a pretty good idea of where Vegas would put a hypothetical Texas v Tech line.
  18. Chat got has Texas as a 3-5 point favorite when I asked it. I realize Chat is dumb and am not using that as definitive but I counter stupid shot like that off it for a data point and lulz. I think of you asked this question to every SEC fanbase they’d say Texas. My aggy brother said Texas by 10 but he’s so into SEC cool aid it’s not funny. Hes a big dumb dumb but I repeat myself because I already said aggy. regardless, you aren’t going to see the good models Vegas uses. Who in the country do you think Texas is a dog to right now at a neutral site?
  19. I mean we were favored against OU. We were a slight dog to aggy. We were favored against Vandy when we had played exactly one good game. You really think yall would be favored neutral.
  20. I do a lot of gambling and we used to spend an inordinate amount of time guessing lines before they came out so we had opinions on the game. We are arguing over texas being 2.5 or 3.5 favorites over tech on a neutral field. Athlete advantage, coaching advantage and more of a public team. I don’t see any chance tech opens up as the betting line favorite. we have Texas as dogs in any road game we’d play or neutral to Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana (probably- pending next week if OSU chokes them out bc the athlete differential is super great) Domers and Bama. I’d bet on us to beat bama but they’d probably be favored. it’s arguable that aggy would be favored at a neutral site as they were just a 2.5 point favorite but I always believed the computers with us having a greater chance of winning plus the data point we just got. Vegas could run that back as a pick em or slight aggy favorite at neutral site. we have Texas favored over all else in college football. Ole Miss would have been a tough call before Kiffin left. Now with him gone nah.
  21. Gotcha. Because you should be concerned if it’s an 11-2beauty pageant. I think yall are really good and BYU isn’t, so I get where you are coming from but the ball can bounce a funny way.
  22. You can be unconcerned if you want. You should be. game it out- you sure 11-2 tech is in over 10-2 Ou? 10-2 domers? 10-3 Bama? Because you’d have to knock one of those teams out of your lose to BYU. You sure the mouse doesn’t tell the committeee fuck no- we ain’t taking tech over Bama?
  23. I mean- they won 4 games. And they just buttfucked their rival in the ACC. They played the hardest schedule in the country by a fair bit, and had some shot go against them. They beat us and had Georgia fucking shitting themselves u til ref fuckery out an end to that game. They absolutely could beat anyone in the ACC or Big 12. I think Tech is better than them, Miami is better then them but I’d take a coin flip game against Utah or BYU and I’d have them slight favorites over Pitt and Louisville. There’s a reason the computers have them like 40 even at 4-8. That reason isn’t because they suck.
  24. Look, I think Tech is a good squad. I think they are top 10. Yall better not lose that game. I’m not saying that losing it knocks you out but you don’t want to get into a pissing match with 10-2 Domers or 10-2 OU or 10-3 Bama for who gets the last couple spots. There’s a very real chance it might not be you (or it might be). You should probably make sure you win that game, or at a minimum show up and play/look good like a playoff team should.
  25. For sure. Georgia could win by 50, Ohio state win by 50 and tech win by 50 and the ACC could be a clown show won by Duke and the committee could say- wait- we don’t want Texas and Arch Manning in here because why again? Same thing could happen. Again, not likely but possible.
×
×
  • Create New...