Wulaw Horn

Some years there are 2 really good teams. Some there are 5. I think this year there is only 1 really good team and it’s us.

Texas v OU. The Red River Shootout. Good v evil. Class v none. Good breeding v inbreeding. Teeth privileged v toothless. 2 proud football programs. One world class institution of higher learning and one glorified community college that exists to service their football team. SEC nonsense aside, this is the game that means more. 12 schools (maybe 13?) officially consider Texas their main rival according to a poll I saw last year. Thankfully, with the move to the SEC we’ve gotten away from the majority of these no win games against second rate schools that represent nothing but potential downside. Texas considers itself to have 3 rivals, but they aren’t all created equally. Arkansas left 30 years ago and we put them on the schedule a handful of times and played them as a curiosity for the olds who wouldn’t stop blathering about royal and Broyals and Fayetnam and cousin loving and blah blah blah. Aggy left and we laughed at them when they lost eternal scoreboard, and decided never to play them again. OU though, OU is special. College football has gone through massive realignment where every school is out for themselves and 2 schools have stood out on deciding they are a package deal, Texas and OU. Both, by any metric top 8 or so programs. The richest and most envied program in America in Texas. Probably the second most accomplished (or 3rd behind Bama and maybe the Domers) in Oklahoma. We have owned them historically. They’ve probably out shined us a bit in the 21st century. But this is a series of runs. Schools rip off 4 in a row or 8 out of 10 and it serves as a spotlight for what the other school needs to do to get better. We’ve been on the bad side of that the last 15 years or so as we’ve wandered the desert. No more. This game is so important because generally the winner is national title quality. When you go on that run when you win 5 in a row or 8 out of 10 you are likely rolling and ready too dominate. Sark has 2 tasks left at Texas after acing most everything leading up to this- flip the script decisively in this series and win a national title. it says here that he will do both those things starting this year. Give em hell give em hell, OU sucks. its 8:19 in the morning and OU sucks. texas doesn’t fall into the gulf because OU sucks. hook em high like an eagle soars. Even dear old Bill in Sinton wouldn’t worry about anyone overlooking this game- it’s the one always circled in red ink.

Alabraska. Clap clap clap clap clap.

Moore. Tre Watson was a long time ago, I suck with names and I am a dumb dumb. Also getting old sucks.

Moore. DE

I'll take that bet if you want to do it. I have 11 as floor and 14 as most likely. I win if the number is above your ceiling (12). You win if the number is below my floor (11). Deal? Also on the 20 I said wild eyed crazy scenario where we win a national title and everyone self actualizes is 20. In no way was that a prediction. THe guys you are giving me shit on are all at the bottom of my list called l"coin flip or less" and the guys you pulled out in Holmes and Conner would definitely be "less" but greater than zero imo. I only predicted 2 from that tier. If I had to guess it would be Gbenda and Guilbeau. Would it shock me if Watson had a stretch where he got 8 sacks in 6 games and decided to go? No. Or Blue get his head out of his ass? Not a surprise either. I have that as 2/7 so what that's saying is 28% odds a guy in that tier gets drafted. You want to say collectively that won't happen with that group of 7 fine. But when you say 9 when there are 8 pretty much locks that means that of the following players you only have 1 getting drafted: Williams, Majors, Broughton, Golden, DJ, Gbenda, Connor, Tre, Blue, Holmes, guilbeau, Bolden. That seems incredibly implausible that that group would go 1 for 12

MBS are down roughly 130 points since that day. We got 50! When the market was only expecting 25! And it's been like eating a plate of shit basically every day since then. Tough stuff.

This report looked less fishy than any previous report I’ve railed against for the past 2 years. birth death was -148,000! Meaning/ this was (likely) actual jobs being in place that are countable and not figments of someone’s imagination. note/ I’m not saying you cannot and should not model for small business creation, I’m saying that the modeling they were using was abysmal, you could always tell it was abysmal, and the real world bore that out. Also stronger component than normal was most of the jobs were full time jobs. That hasn’t been the case lately. strong report.

Not a surprise to me. Was almost set in stone imo after Michigan. I think you have to pretty much chalk up DJ to the draft as well. I am doubtful that he will want to be the only dude coming back on an entire new offensive line. Move him from written in pencil in maybe they could go to, yeah- we suspect they will go. Blue, on the other hand, yikes I had him likely to be top 3 or 4 rounds, he might not be at Texas next year but it won’t be because he’s getting drafted. Doing this list now 35% of the way through the season: Sure things (8): Quinn, Banks, Bond, Helm, Collins, Sorrell, Barron, Makuba highly likely (4): Williams, Majors, Broughton, Golden, DJ, coin flip or less (2): Gbenda, Connor, Tre, Blue, Holmes, guilbeau, Bolden 14 right now. Absolute floor of 11 (barring catastrophic injury to one of the sure things). my prediction- 14. Wild eyed crazy scenario where we win the national title and all those guys self actualize and none of them want to come back- 20. I’m a homer and a honk. Things don’t always work out the way they do on paper- but the over under to get half the action on one side and half on the other has to be right around 12, right?

I saw it. Why am I supposed to give this credence now with their abysmal track record the prior 2 years at getting the data right? ADP (you know- the guys that are boots on the ground sending out checks for small businesses) had small business growth nonexistent this month (something like net +2,000). Lets we how much of this 254k is actually verifiable and how much of it is the BLS licking their finger, sticking it up in the air to gauge the wind, and then assigning a number on the birth death model for small business that might (or might not) bear some sort of connection with reality and actual economic activity in America. Will look at summary of that data and report back here either way.

It will be a sea day in the middle of the ocean. I didn’t think streaming was possible out there (I know internet is fine- but thought they throttled anything that takes a ton of data. what kind of package did you have?

Week 5- Mississippi State @ Texas Game Winner- @EZ$with a prediction of 31-10 (I think this was our biggest error for a winner of the year so far) Prop Bet winner- @Mudcat35who was one of 3 people to get total yards of 523 dead on the number- and had the best game score prediction.

Week 4 ULM @ Texas Game Score- @Wulaw HornI predicted 52-3 and outkicked @Texasborn91by being 7 yards closer on the prop bet Prop Bet- @Fico, our first 2 time winner- congrats!

Week 3-UTSA @ Texas Game Winner- @mvlonghorns with the perfect score of 56-7 Prop bet- Yards passing for Texas @DoobieWah who said 428 and it was 427

Week 2- Texas @ Michigan Game Score: @Ficowho was one of 5 or 6 people to miss by 1 point with a prediction of 31-13 (actual- 31-12). Prop bet- (Michigan Yards receiving) @Dr.Dre was the winner- beating out @Sgt Hulkdue to getting a better game score.

Week 1- Colorado State @ Texas Game Score: @conVINCEdwho had 52-3, missing out by a little Prop total- Texas receiver yards from scrimmage- winner @Nueces River Rat who edged out @DFW Hornwho also nailed it exact, but NRR had the better game score.

@immamachas been gracious enough to let me be a sponsor on this website for a couple years. He said when we sponsored that he'd like to see stuff that's fun for the community- so one of those things (amongst many) we do is give away free cash for football, basketball and baseball type predictions. I can afford to do this if you help me by giving me a chance to earn your business when you buy or refinance a house. DM me or check out my website at mortgagesbygabe.com if you are looking to buy or refinance because you bought a house in the last 2 years and your rate is high. Commercial over Fun Part: We are giving away money for everyone that won a prediction contest ($50) for the week or the bonus prop bet ($25) for the week. At the end of the regular season I will take a vote as to whether or not those winners want to be paid out immediately, if they want me to donate it in their name to Burnt Endz, or if they want to roll it over to a winner take all playoff edition where the winner would take home the whole pot of like $1,000 for getting closest to that score (only winners would be eligible. In the meantime, here are the weekly winners

3 dead balls on with 523. Congrats to @The_highest_of_fives, @Mudcat35& @Drifterwood With the best score of the group of 3 at 48-13 @Mudcat35 is your winner. Congrats to all

Everyone within 10 yards- good job.

Easy money is the winner based on the @Huckleberrymodel which is 2 points for every deviation from the spread (1 point off so 2) and 1 point for deviation from total score (48- he had 6 off-so a total of 8 points). The 38-13 scores were 3 points off X 2 for 6 on the spread, plus 3 points off for the totals for a total of 9. Congrats @EZ$. If I did that wrong let me know.

The best predictions of not a great overall prediction week for the board

Overview on non field stuff: WE have 30M in dead money between Abreu and Montero that are on the books for 1 more year. Bite the bullet and move on, Crane, you made your bed and it's your fault- pretend that doesn't exist. We have another 30M in money on the injured list in LMJ and Javier that you would be ecstatic if you got 80 or 100 innings out of- both those guys, were it I, would be ticketed to bullpen duty in 2025 if they were to come back. LMJ forever (if he ever throws another pitch) and Javier until 2026 if he gets right. Your player development and pitching side of the organization is second to none- and it's got us in really good situation for another 5 years. Your GM was a great talent guy for the Braves, and so far he gets good marks on that in Houston. Your owner bit the bullet on Abreu and Montero- demonstrating it seems as if he's learned from those mistakes. I'm not really sold on the manager, but, at least he fills out the lineup card the right way (progress) and isn't at war with the FO (also progress). We could (and have) done worse there, we also could do better (I miss you AJ- congrats you son of a bitch) Conclusion: We need a 1B and a 3B and a LF. Or at least pieces if that to hit LH in LF and RHB at 1B. I can't imagine we re-sign Bregman (I would but whatever). You should be able to turn LF and 1B into strengths instead of weaknesses in the offseason for something like 30M a year- total. If you do that (I gave my ideas- don't care who as long as they do it) then you are super star to above average at: C, 1B, 2B, SS, DH, LF, RF. You are below average, probably, at 3B and CF. That happens to be where your best prospects in the minors (that should be ready in 25 and 26 respectively, and you probably need to let them have a chance to do it. You should probably sign Kichuchi- if not him then I can't imagine anyone else making more sense. You have 2 aces in Brown and Framber. You have really good MOR coverage in Blanco and Arrighetti. You have Garcia who should join those 2. You have some talented potential wild cards injured and you have some guys in the minors that I have a ton of confidence in going forward. All signs are in place for a really really good 2025 team if you don't get super unlucky again. I would say that there is enough talent signed up cheap through 2028 that the Astros SHOULD be WS contenders for the next 4 years. Yordan, Diaz, Altuve, Pena (for 3 of 4 years), Brown, Arrighetti, Blanco, Hader are all through 2028. You have a bunch of pitching guys that you should feel good about. Dana is doing good work in the minors. You will be good throughout if you can make 2 or 3 good FA signings and develop 5 or 6 average players out of the current farm, and 1 star would be nice. I think they have the development system and raw talent to do it. Star level chances: Ullola, Melton (I'm betting against but dana is smarter than me) Matthews, Sam Houston Catcher, Baez, Dezenzo- that's 6 cracks at a star- 1 of them needs to hit- two would be a lot better. Could be MLB regular good- the above 6, plus Blubaugh, about 5 or 6 other pitchers, Whitcomb, etc. 1 star, 2 good FA signings and 5 or 6 2 war type run of the mill regular starters and the organization will be on year 14 or 15 of competing for a WS. That's pretty awesome.

On the mound is my greatest source of hope and optimism about how the Astros are set to be pretty good and pretty inexpensive for a long time. Lots of good news here. Player Contract Status FA year (age) Starters Hunter Brown 4 years for 30M 2028 (29) Obviously the salary is projection. An ace for 1M, 5M, 10M & 15M is what I'm projecting in arb. if that's wrong its by 5M total. Arrighetti 5 years for 30M 2029 (29) Boy we fucked this one up. He got service time for a year by like 5 days I believe. That 5 days is the difference between saying goodbye after 2029 or after 2030. That hurts bad. I don't think they expected him to be this good. Blanco 5 for 20M 2029 (35). No extension. No extra money. No worries about anything. This late bloomer looks like a quality MOR guy for minimum wage for 5 more years, that's super valuable. Javier 3 for 36M 2027 (30). Figure 2025 is a waste. If he gives you enough to pitch out of the bullpen that's a real weapon down the stretch but don't count on that. No reason not to start in 2026 LMJ 2 for 34 2026 (32) Has he thrown his last big league pitch? Plan as if he has. I hope the contract is insured. Anything you get from him is Gravy Luis Garcia 2 for 10 2026 (29) Can't imagine he's not back to the same guy he was before injury by 26 with 2 full years. It's a straightforward surgery. 12-18 months. He was on the 18 month side- that sucks. Spring training will be 21 months out. No reason not to expect him to be a quality MOR guy for 2 more years at short money. Framber- 1 for 20M 2025 (31)- Ace level for 20M is really valuable and good. Urquidy- arb 3 2025 (30) You DFA him before you pay him 4 or 5M on the hopes that you get him back to pitch next August. I'd offer him a 2 for 6M contract if he was open to that- if not I'd DFA and tell him best of luck on the open market- thanks for 2 WS wins bro. Starters- You can count on (I believe) 2 aces making a combined 20M, 3 MOR guys making 7M combined, and then injury wildcards in France, Javier, LMJ making a combined 30M. If that 30M injury could be hand waived away you would be in such good shape. If we get 200 competent innings out of those 3 guys then that's fine. Bullpen: Hader 4 years- 76M 2028 (34). Yesh- not a great first year in a lot of ways. You get him to be a boss man in the playoffs and that didn't happen. Better luck next year. Presley 1 year- 15M 2025 (36) He's got 10/5 rights so you can't trade him unless he agrees. Personally, I'd make his life miserable enough that he'd agree. Abreu- 2 years- 12M 2026 (29) He made 1.75. I'm projecting something like 4 and 8 in arbitration. Maybe it's less, maybe it's a little more- I'm within 2M total though I would almost guarantee. I'd offer him a 5 year, 40M extension to buy out the last two years of arb and then that would be worth something like 3/ 28M on the back end. He might say no- in which case you say good luck. He might say yes in which case you have the 8th and 9th innings set for 4 years and 27M total from a LT perspective. That's not terrible in todays market. That's it for guys with money owed or that you guarantee are here (absent injury) through their arb years- the rest of the guys I'm just going to list when their service time is up: Bryan King: 2029 (32) Kaleb Ort: 2028 (36) Taylor Scott: 2028 (36) Penn Murfree: 2028 (34) Seth Martinez: 2028 (33) Forest Whitley: 2030 (32) Shawn Dubin: 2028 (33) Lost from this years team: JV, Kikuchi, Graveman, Turd Ferguson, Waiting in the wings/Roster fodder (2025 edition): Blubaugh, Gusto, Gordon, Suero, Coleman, Ortega, Souza, Kouba (injury stuff on the last 3 guys). Keep an eye on (long term) Ullola, Brito, Fleury, Pecko, too many others to mention- the astros are witches here. Prognosis: I'd do everything I could to get Pressley out the door. I'd sign Kichuchi to something like 3/60M. That would be a bargain if he was the guy he was for the last 10 starts with the Astros. If he's not that guy anymore it's an overpay for a MOR starter which he's always been. If he gets hurt that's bad luck- what are you going to do. Proposed Lineup: Rotation: Framber, Brown, Kicuchi (TOR guys) MOR- Arrighetti, Blanco, Absolutely should be back: Garcia, Might be back: LMJ, Javier, France. That's 6 guys you can count on, 3 health guys and at least 2 starters waiting in the wings I'm very bullish on to be decent at least. 45M from the guys through absolutely should be back- plus 30M in health concerns. Bullpen: Hader, Abreu, Scott, Whitley, Murfree, pick 2 more from guys waiting in the wings etc. Summary: Hunter Brown establishing himself as a TOR guy, Arrighetti an Blanco you have to be feeling really good about, breakout in the minors from Blubaugh, Ullola being a comer- man- the Astros have it really good here. We've been killed by injuries 2 years in a row. If we get some of those guys back and right so that they are not just a black hole on the books while contributing nothing this goes from very very good part of the team to fantastic. I couldn't be more excited about having 2 aces for not much money next year and 3 or 4 guys that make nothing that will be solid MOR guys with some ace potential. Keep the good thing going with Kichuchi and you have 3 ace types and 3 or 4 MOR types and it's not costing you all that much. If I had my way on the signing of kichuchi and getting rid of Presley (and urquidy) you are looking at something like $112M. That's pretty fantastic. This org has proven it can develop guys from out of nowhere. There was concern that with a new regime and new development staff maybe the train wouldn't roll on. It clearly has. If things go reasonably this is a top 5-10 staff. If things break right for once this is the best collection of 1-13 guys in baseball with good quality depth to boot. That's an enviable position and why I'm bullish on the Astros long term.

I think the offseason (at least the start of it) is a good time to talk about the context with which this organization is operating and compare it to where we entered the season. Many times the season is instructive in forming opinions for what the future of the organization holds, but sometimes we can miss the forest for the trees or be unduly influenced by the results of the season. Was the 2024 Astros season great? No. Was it fun to watch? Absolutely not. Did we like the outcome in the playoffs? Of course not. But, I think that big ball of suck hides something pretty important to note, and that is this: What happened in the 2024 season probably makes the Astros an organization better prepared to capitalize on the next 5 years than we previously were heading into the season. Salaries and FA walk years (the year I use will be the last year with the Astros team- so Tucker will be '25 as that's his last year we can guarantee he's playing for us. I'm going to talk luxury tax dollars not actual dollars- b/c we have to make some sort of decision on what we talk about and that makes the most sense to me. For guys with arbitration I'm projecting what I think the number will be. I'm only talking about guys I think matter and will be the core of Astros teams going forward. Player Contract Status FA Walk year (age at walk year) Altuve 5 years/ 125M 2029 (39 YO) Alvarez 4 years/ 77M 2028 (31) Yainer Diaz 4 years $30M 2028 (29) Pena- 3 years- 30M 2027 (29) Meyers- 3 years- 15M 2027 (31) - I'm not sure Jake is an Astro all that time- I'm guessing he gets like 3M in arb 1 and they bring him back- candidate to dfa if no breakthrough after 25 McCormick 2 years- 13M 2026 (31)- Chas has been good most of his career. He was terrible last year. I think they offer him something like $4M and bring him back. he made 2.8 never goes down- even after a bad year- candidate to dfa if bad again Caratini- 1 year - 6M 2025 (31) Tucker- 1 year- 18M 2025 (28)- he made 12M this last year- 18M would be a normal type ARB raise for someone of his caliber. Dubon- 2 years- 12M 2026 (31)- He made 3.5M this year in arb 2- I'm guessing 5M in arb 3 and 7M in arb 4- he's a super 2 guy. Candidate to dfa after 25 Singleton- 4 years of club control 2028 (36)- I would think they bring him back as a minimum wage guy you can do worse than him on the bench. Upside of productive guy in platoon situation- I suspect the plan is to upgrade as everyday 1B Lost from this years team: Bregman, Heyward, Gamel, Waiting in the wings- roster fodder (25 edition): Whitcomb, Dezenzo, Melton, Mathews, Kessinger, Leon, Corona, Barber - Keep an eye on- long term guys: Ochoa, Janek, Baez (one of these guys needs to hit in a big way- or Matthews be a star) Prognosis: That's 10 of your 13 guys (likely) coming back. you get 3 more guys on your roster. You are set in stone at C, 2b, SS, RF, DH(LF). You have a really nice utility player in Dubon. You have a great defensive CF in Meyers. You have a candidate to really bounce back and be a good player in Chas (though that's not a certainty). Order of necessity to fill a position/improve- 1B, 3B, LF, CF. What I'd do- reasonable edition: Sign Christian Walker- 3 years- 60M (ESPN predicted 40-80M) (astros have been interested in him at deadline for years allegedly). 120 OPS plus guy last year and more or less for his career. Good defense. No signs of slowing down- but at 33 figure 3/60 is maximum that makes sense. sign Michael Conforto to play LF and platoon with Chas- he's a lifetime 838 ops guys against RHP and Chas is a lifetime 866 OPS guys against (LHP- and yes- I know Chas was bad last year- small sample blah blah blah). 1 year- 10M or something like that. I'd go up to 2/24 or 2/30 as an absolute max- if he won't take that then another LHH LF that's good against RHP. I'd turn 3b over to Dezenzo (I think he might actually be good). I'd tell Whitcomb he's a LF or a 1B now in case chas sucks or someone gets injured. I'd trot Jake out there in CF every day until Melton or Corona or Barber or someone like that supplanted him b/c again- Jake was worth 1.5 or 2.0 war depending upon who you believe as between BR and Fangraphs so him playing CF and hitting 9th is a good thing- not a bad thing- if the rest of the lineup is solid. And- he's a cheap placeholder until someone from the minors can beat him out. Lets hope Melton is better than I think he is. Proposed lineup: Altuve (25) Yordan (20) Diaz (1) Tucker (18) Walker (20) Chas/Conforto (20) Dezenzo (1) Pena (5) Meyers (3) Bench- Caratini, Singleton, Dubon, Chas/Confoto. (12M) That's a really solid squad. That would cost you something like 125M for the position player segment not bad. And yes- I know there is some dead money- will talk about that in installment 3

Coles contract (so far) is easily worth the money and a very good ROI (or as good as FA signings can be). There is a decent chance we win the WS in 21 if he would have stayed. We’d also have more prospects because we wouldn’t have had to do the JV trades.