Nothing you are saying is wrong. When I say I'm looking into the future and could be wrong on this, but I doubt it- I'm not saying I'm never wrong, or even merely wrong, what I'm saying is that I think, shit not falling apart, it's more likely than not that Texas has the most talented roster in the country going into the 2025 season. Could that change? Of course. But I doubt it. I think the roster is better May 1 than it is today, and I think today it's better than anyone else's. Could that change? Sure.
What I'm saying is that I know the duck is paddling hard under water (and damn do I appreciate it) and I'm speculating that it continues to go down that way and we are in really good shape. If I'm speculating on the future (which is the whole point of this thread) I bet we don't lose anyone on the two deep after spring ball and we add at least 1 impact level all conference player (hopefully at WR- maybe at CB) and 2 or 3 depth pieces (likely interior DL or maybe one there, a kicker and a TE if Washington isn't the dude I think/expect him to be).
Anyone mocking concerns over NIL should be instead mocked and ridiculed b/c they clearly are dipshits. The counterfactual shit you talk about is fascinating. I was having almost this exact same conversation with my wife (over a political subject so I won't bring it up) last night over cocktails as we were talking about how one outcome doesn't have to be good in the real world to be a good decision b/c it might have prevented another worse option in it's place.
End of the day we have 3 AA's (maybe 4) either returning (Taafe & Hill) or almost certain to be if healthy (Simmons) on Defense, plus another 4 or 5 2026 draft picks beyond those 3 (likely) in Burke, Moore (if he's back), Manny, Guilbeu, and a shit ton of really talented freshmen from the #1 class. On Offense it's the Vegas odds favorite for the Heisman at QB, Wingo who should be a hoss, plus whatever other talent we can pick up in the portal, and a bunch of 5 star WR frosh coming in and what looks like a decent OL that will be a step back but still pretty solid. There are lots of people on this site that project doom and gloom and negativity onto everything, or act like if we don't have a returning AA at every position coming back we suck, without looking at the context of a very manageable schedule and a decided talent advantage over almost everyone on the schedule, and an experience edge on the 2 teams we don't have a decided talent advantage over in GA and OSU. But yeah- if Sark goes pro or some shit blows up in the locker room than I'm wrong and I will be very very sad. But, I'm on a 3 year heater of saying the arrow is pointed directly up, the nay sayers are wrong etc and I'm going to go ahead and continue to bet that trend.
None of this is saying anything you are saying is wrong and I enjoyed reading that- I'm just fleshing out what I mean when I say "I doubt I'm wrong" and recoginizing that there is shit that could derail it but I'm betting against that shit happening.