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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Welp, k then DP. I guess it is. Maybe KKk
  2. Let’s go double okay k, not k double play. That would get us a run.
  3. I will take it. Come on Carlos- let’s put this out of reach here.
  4. Peña has really been good in that spot. I’d not mess with that once he gets back. Yordan needs to hit 2 if he’s coming back here like it has been alleged he might.
  5. He was highly touted in the majors bc of skill set not production imo. He’s got a broken hit tool and I have very little faith in him ever becoming a really good player. if he fixed the hit tool he will be a well above average player but most guys don’t. Bet against.
  6. Melton is on the playoff roster imo as our base stealer.
  7. It’s amazing that he was able to become an MLB player by overcoming the adversity of not being able to hit. I bet that doesn’t stay long.
  8. Probably not on Framber. The problem with Cy young and getting in the top 10 is only 3 guys get votes, so there typically isn’t even a top 10 over the course of a full season, because guys don’t even get votes that would slot in the 8/9/10 spot the way they do in MVP voting. if he finishes super strong he might get a couple votes here and there which would definitely put him in the top 10.
  9. I think @Snake Diggityis the one that introduced that to me earlier this year over on clutch fans...
  10. If you have a top 100 prospect up on the first day of the season with rookie eligibility the team gets an extra draft pick if: 1) they win ROY 2) they finish top 3 in cy young before they become arbitration eligible 3) same as 2 but MVP. they did this to try to incentivize teams to not fuck with service time manipulation in the last CBA.
  11. Also, just crunched all the AL numbers on pitchers. I find it extremely likely that Brown should finish 3rd or so if the season were to end today. Anything lower than that and honestly the voters will have gotten it wrong. I’m not saying he’s guaranteed for finish top 3 but if he can get it to the house with an era 2.5 or lower I would bet he’s top 3 and we get the pick.
  12. They are dumb. He should be 1 on the list imo. having the astros system with 2 pitchers in the top 10 at 8 and 9 is dumb. I can almost guarantee you that 75% of the value in our system is in arms.
  13. It’s 6/5 and pick em. He needs to finish strong. No more duds and houston winning the division and I think he gets there.
  14. I’m terrified of the 7 with Baltimore.
  15. If he gets top 3 in Cy Young we steal a draft pick. Hes pitching like Cy Young again. 4 shaky outings outside of that he’s been a top 5 pitcher in baseball. Finish strong.
  16. Yall fuckers need to respect Abreu’s process. 95% of the time it works every time he is one of the top 10 relievers in MLB. He will be fine get Walter and garcia back healthy and we have enough arms without Hader. Pray it’s muscular (back fine for 26) and not structural (career in jeopardy).
  17. Just to clarify, we are one brutally missed strike that was called a ball away from cam smith doing nothing for a month, right? Melton is every bit as shitty (so far) as I expected him to be all through his time in the minors. At least yainer Maldonado is having a game. I wouldn’t have sent Brown back out there. I know, I know. He’s just been bad Al year on 4 days rest and he doesn’t seem sharp. I will be happy if we only give up 2 this inning.
  18. C- for style, B for effectiveness. I’d take 2 runs in 5 innings from every starter for the rest of the year and feel like we’d win well more than we’d lose.
  19. We ain’t scoring today.
  20. pray it's only 15 days. As I said an hour ago, guranteed lead pipe cinch on the DL
  21. 100% lock Hader on the IL, and it's apparently muscle and not ligament- so that's good. It didn't have to be Sousa- I'd be fine with Okert. Hell- I'd have preferred Gordon I think since you decided he wasn't starting Sunday. But yeah, Dubin coming back will be a godsend, too bad it's not to add to Hader and instead it's to replace.
  22. Here is the math: Here’s what I found for the distribution of runs scored in an inning with a runner on second and 0 outs: From FanGraphs (using 2019 data), in that specific base-out situation, the breakdown is: 0 runs scored: 39.2% 1 run: 31.7% 2 runs: 14.6% 3 runs: 7.5% 4 runs: 3.6% 5 runs: 1.8% 6 or more runs: 1.6%
  23. UP 3 after he's already pitched an inning? And with how much he's pitched all year? Bennent Sousa, come on down. Look man- even with the ghost runner you have a 90% chance of winning the game without going to the 11th inning. If they score exactly three you still have basically a 50/50 chance starting the 11th. IT's something like 94% chance of winning with a neutral/average pitcher. Sousa is a little better than that. Call it 95. Let's say Hader is 100% (he's not) but being as generous as possible here... for every 20 times you trot sousa out there instead of hader you get 1 less win. Is that worth putting 20 more high stress innings on Hader's are over the course of the year? Especially with how much he's been pitching? Not a fucking chance man. Dumb dumb Espada for a reason.
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