Wulaw Horn

Slight push back- the thread I was pumping sunshine on was the spring 2022 thread. There were plenty of data points in the strong finish to the 2022 class, class of beef, getting Quinn to transfer and ruthlessly exploiting all the advantages a place like UT has to offer in a way that chuckles and fuck face Herman couldn’t. When combined with pretty clearly being a top 5 offensive mind (at worst) in the college game it was pretty likely to work and there were a lot of data points at the time. That wasn’t blind faith that was future oriented crystal ball gazing. absent personal demons or sloth overtaking on I think he goes down as our 2nd best coach ever. He also has a shit load of tail winds behind him but he’s the right man for his time. again- I’m not guaranteeing 16 but think that number is closer than 10 or so when it’s all said and done.

Is this the worst week of college football? It’s pretty bleak. It can get a lot more fun if aggy loses to Florida and OU continues to flounder about against Tulane- both those things would be fun. if Wisconsin can make it interesting or aggy Florida finds amusement you can get through the day with somewhat interesting viewing in all the time periods, but if Bama throttles Wisconsin or aggy looks like less than warmed over dog shit against Florida destroying my urge to point and laugh then you have massive holes in the schedule with nothing all that compelling going on. Maybe I will play with my kids or pay attention to the wife or something like that if the worst case scenario happens. Also, am at 70% through the first 3 weeks picking against the line. Both picks and money management. I fully expect to regress hard to the mean this week- I think I like 2 lines in the entire board- just a brutal week if you are into the game within the game.

Espada is really bad at managing a pitching staff. Amongst other things.

He misspelled better. It happens.

Nahlin at IT dropped an early look (about 2 hours after I posted my bump) and had 11 guys with absolute draft grades right now and 6 or 7 that were "too early to know" that was basically my 3 year guys that I had sorted in maybe yes and maybe no. He had Broughton in 4th round and Majors in the 5th. I'm not saying he's right or anything but I expect both those guys to be drafted but didn't put them in locks.

I’m projecting some stuff into the future when I have a guy like Ethan Burke mentioned (I have him in my probably not). Do I think he’s exiting and going pro after this year? Not really. But if he comes in and gets a ton of snaps as the rush guy and gets 10 sacks? It could happen. I think it will happen for at least one of the guys mentioned because that’s how that shit works. Maybe 2. And maybe the 8 for sure guys something weird happens to one of them and it’s 7. It’s an in exact science obviously and it’s very early in the year. a guy like Campbell or Williams absolutely will get drafted if they threw their name in this year. I think Cam might be a top 50 pick. Does Campbell want to stick around if he gets a 5th round grade? He strikes me as likely to be gone but I don’t know- maybe he sees himself as a top 3 guard off the board if he plays another season and wants to come back. NIL will make a lot of those decisions way more interesting as I know I don’t have to tell you being so involved in that whole scene You said I was blind and implied it was an absurd post and premise. Sort of like my Sark love after he nailed the off-season after 5-7 when you banished me to my own thread while I was saying I thought he might end up the 2nd or 3rd best coach at Texas seeing him attack that offseason (and of course all the tail winds that guys like you had a big hand in creating-thank you) Am I right about everything? No. But I’ve gotten an absurd amount of pushback whenever I post anything about football and in the main I’ve been right. I’m not saying it’s absolutely positively going to be 16 guys and I’m betting my life on it (as was implied by screw it- I’ll say 16) but if it ends up being 14 then I had the sense of it and didn’t deserve to be told I was blind and get the wow at the end. what you call Cassandra when I reply to you is me respecting your intelligence and football acumen and being bummed and defending myself when you dismiss me. Cool. I respect you and I wear my heart on my sleeve a little bit. Sorry. I’m sure I’m a pussy or subject derision for some for being genuine on the internet or caring about what people I respect say to me/about me. Shrugs. I don’t know how to live my life any other way. Sorry if it bothers you- wasn’t my intention.

I will absolutely take whatever money you want on that.

Bureaus. It’s really really really deserving of getting them fire bombed. It’s awful and I can’t even comprehend why it’s ok. We’ve ceded way too much control of our financial lives to the credit bureaus and they are shit heads.

2025 draft. I believe everyone in the first 3 groups barring grisly injury gets drafted eventually, but I’m playing guessing game as to who goes when as between this year and next year.

Cool. How many you got? I don’t know many who had 10 plus like I did after last year and I got mocked most of the lead up to the draft. Then 11 happened. when this team goes 15-1 or 16-0 there will be a large Halo effect around it that will get guys like Jake Majors or David Gbenda drafted in the 7th round, or Silas Bolden taken as a kick returner. Kind of like what happened with Whittington and Robinson. Thats my guess. What’s yours?

Horns drafted for sure: Ewers, Bond, Banks, Collins, Sorrell, Makuba, Barron, Helm (I’ve got all 8 here) horns drafted if they declare early (and likely to): Cam Williams, Blue, Trey Moore, DJ Campbell (3) could go early and would probably be drafted but probably won’t: Ethan Burke, Golden, Guilbeau, Hayden Connor (1) Better than 50/50 to get drafted: Holmes, Bolden, broughton, David Gbenda, Jake Majors, (4) screw it. I’ve got 16 guys getting drafted.

Soft pull, opt out, hard pull, order payoff right before closing. It is so lousy for the borrower. Yes- I've spent $5,000 of my own money plus 2 weeks over the last 2 years (plus an hour a month additional) lobbying to get this cleaned up. It's gross and disgusting.

Some interesting numbers from Habib today. Average distance between the top of the 10 year and the point it's at when the first rate cut happens is 1.40 points. 10 year topped out in this cycle at 5.0. So, if this is where it's at next week it's basically dead bang on the average. If the rate cuts continue to happen as they have on average in the past cycles we would expect the 10 year to bottom out (probably in 12-18 months) at about 2.2%. Typically, mortgage rates have about a 2 point spread on the 10 year (this has grown greater during rates going up but will probably get back to normal spread as they go down). Thus- if this happens the bottom should see national average (I'm guessing 18-24 months from now after about 250 basis points in cuts by the fed) bottom out about 4.25 for the national average. Work with a good broker and that means you should be in the high 3's at the trough of this mortgage cycle. Maybe low 4's. This strikes me as likely and intuitively right- as in 2019 we were at low 4's for the national average and mid to high 3's for my clients before Covid came and distorted the entire market. If the 10 year performs less than average during this rate cutting cycle that would means national rates between 4.5 and 4.75 so a sharply priced buyer would be low 4's.

Episode 78. We talk week that was, hat tip to Framber and Brown, a little JV and then astros best 9.

Everyone who got within 10 yards- good job. 2 tied at 205, @Sgt Hulk and @Dr.Dre. Dr Dre score was closest so that is going to function as a tie breaker. Good job to both yall.

I think we have 5 or 6 scores of 31-13 that all tied for the winner. I put in every other thing I thought was really good or captured the spirit of the game. Winner of the score due to the tie breaker is @Fico with 192. @FloridaHorn @jettrink@BigHorn, @CfRhTxStBobcats all with 31-13 guesses

bump- working on scoring it now.

If it's not fixed by kick time tonight I'm pulling the cord. Fuck those fucking assholes that call themselves a must for sports and then can't get it together to get ESPN and ABC during football season. Fuck them in the ass.

Texas- 55 UTSA- 3 This game should be incredibly boring. They suck. We are really really good. We are deep and we have a bunch of young guys super excited to fight for playing time and I think Sark wants to make sure that depth is sharpened and ready to go- so I expect him to substitute liberally, get lots of guys involved, be more pass happy then normal as Blue got a little dinged and we are very shallow in the RB room, and we have a bunch of really good receivers that need to eat. They likely have nothing for our defense when they are on offense. I'd predict a shutout but that's tacky- so I will give them 3. Prop bet- total passing yards but there is a catch- I want Ewers/Arch/Other for UT. 348 yards 205/130/13 Good luck!

Pretty clearly in my mind. I’m always ahead of the curve on this stuff and occasionally wrong. Don’t think I am here though.

28-31 huh? Brave brave brave. We would have beaten Michigan by that if we had wanted to. Really out on a limb there doctor.

2 scrimmages in a row.4 if you count at Michigan and CSU. We should get Quinn the Heisman and Arch enough time to be Honorable Mention all conference. The SEC meat grinder myth the Ags sell looks pretty absurd today. aggy sucks. OU is mid. Arky is blah. Kentucky, Vandy, Mississippi State and Florida all have pulled the bookshelves down on top of themselves this year. I’m incredibly unimpressed with our new conference mates so far.

Don’t be vaginas. We win this game easily. We are really good.

What a wonderful week of football. All eyes on Texas and we dominated. Quinn Ewers looks like a Heisman guy. This team is pretty clearly the best at Texas since 2005. Notre dame lost to a directional school. A week after beating aggy at home. So- it’s a 2-fer in schadenfreude. OU almost lost to UH, the same UH team that lost by 20 to UNLV week one. Arky lost. And got their heart ripped out doing so. The rest of our schedule (outside Georgia) is ass and my suspicion is Texas and Georgia will play 3 times to determine the 1 seed, SEC champ and College football champ. This season has been about as good as it gets so far. UTSA on the docket. We thought they might have an outside chance at the playoffs. Now, that’s might be Texas State instead after last week. PHD candidate at QB for UTSA is gone, and what was a frisky team won’t likely even be a speed bump. Arch plays a lot. We score 50 something. We allow 0-10 or something. Avoid injuries and get ready for the epic battle the next week against ULM. The SEC really needs to go to 9 games. Bunch of big talking cowards. Oh well. UTSA game week thoughts here. Hook Em high like an Eagle soars.

I laughed at him before the game started.