Wulaw Horn

He was back and making a pass breakup the next series. Whatever it was didn’t matter.

Had this nailed pretty well. Mid 50’s to 1 score and all 3 QB’s play and throw for yards. Not going to win but off by 5 total points (1 for us and 4 for them) is pretty good. Will regulate Monday at work as per normal unless someone wants to do it now.

Welp, sorry Quinn. I think I accidentally manifested this injury onto you. Hope it isn’t serious and you are back 100% against OU at the latest. Hopefully Mississippi State. I was texting with a friend and we started asking the question- if Quinn could get hurt and miss the ULM game, with no repercussions further on into the year, would that be a good thing. Really- I was thinking more like running a 103 degree fever or something that went away after 24 or 48 hours. We decided it wouldn’t be bad (we are throttling ULM with a surlyite playing QB) and it would give Arch real gametime reps to learn and grow with, and probably let Trey Owens get his feet wet. Looks like that is going to happen. Let’s just hope and pray this is a one week thing and Quinn is back to make his run at the Heisman and 1/1 overall fully healthy as the schedule turns to October. Quinn was awesome before he went out other than a bad throw where I suspect based upon body language and mannerisms he had no feeling in his thumb. He comes out and Arch comes in and scores TD’s on 2 out of his first 3 plays. Not bad. ULM is a very bad football team. We are going to beat them by half a hundred regardless of who plays. Mississippi State is a bad football team- we will beat them by half a hundred if we play well, or 2 or 3 TD’s if we don’t. We are at the most boring part of the schedule right now where we basically have 4 byes between Michigan and OU. That’s important time to work on ourselves, get young guys reps, become a team that doesn’t fuck around and plays to a standard, and avoid injuries that will hurt you against tougher competition. If Quinn is ok when October rolls around, Blue has his juice back Banks is fine (he came back in I’m sure he is) and we’ve gotten backups key reps to get them better than this part of the schedule will have done its job. Game week stuff for ULM here. Hook em High like and eagle soars and maintain focusness. One time, 100 years ago I’m sure ULM kept it within 2 scores of some regional hegemon so Bill in Sinton would smell this threat out from a mile away.

We could basically be done with this division of the Rangers could hold onto a 4 run lead and not get walked off the next day. It’s a bit irritating. 27 games left (14 for us and 13 for them) and magic number of 10. We go 7-7 and they’d need to go 11-2 to beat us. Not likely to happen. we have 8 games between here and that series against the Angels and Padres. If we go 6-2 there’s a good chance Seattle (7 games left during that time with rangers and Yankees) will be eliminated before they even get to town. That would be nice and funny. 6-2 also likely puts us in range to be able to run down Cleveland with a sweep in the last series of the year. If we’d have won that extra inning abortion against the A’s of if the rangers could hold on to a simple 4 run lead the math would be super grim for Seattle.

I don’t live with my mom. Joking. Whoever it was wasn’t me.

Contest closed.

Try harder and I bet you can.

You can thank me. I got rid of my direct tv Wednesday and missed the shit back from the fed ex store on Thursday. Almost guaranteed this was getting worked out now. I think it’s the message I left for the direct tv ceo that did the trick. the lady in retention was laughing as I was talking about all the terrible things I wish would happen to him for taking away my college football last two weekends.

If singleton starts against a LHP Espada should get kicked in the nuts. He can have every start against RHP if he wants. best 9 against RHP of Framber or Nrown is on the mound (strikeout and ground ball guys) Altuve, Alvarez (LF), Bregman, Tucker, Diaz (catcher) singleton (1B), Caratini (DH) Pena, Heyward (CF). Heyward played there a fair bit last year, a little this year and the Astros put him in last week, so he’s probably fine with a strikeout/ground ball guy on the mound for us. Wouldn’t want him out there with Kikuchi or JV. Meyers to play defense after we get a lead or Heyward has his last AB, whichever comes first. against LHP: Altuve, Alvarez, Bregman, Tucker, Diaz, Pena, whitcomb (1B), meyers, Dubon (LF). if Chas is back he plays LF and Dubon plays 1B against LHP. I think that’s our best 9 both ways.

I had some professional dealings with them once upon a time where we leased a building of theirs when I ran a title company. They sent a lease, I negotiated some changes, his person agreed to then, everyone signed, he called up and screamed at me afterwards- it was truly bizarre.

Slight push back- the thread I was pumping sunshine on was the spring 2022 thread. There were plenty of data points in the strong finish to the 2022 class, class of beef, getting Quinn to transfer and ruthlessly exploiting all the advantages a place like UT has to offer in a way that chuckles and fuck face Herman couldn’t. When combined with pretty clearly being a top 5 offensive mind (at worst) in the college game it was pretty likely to work and there were a lot of data points at the time. That wasn’t blind faith that was future oriented crystal ball gazing. absent personal demons or sloth overtaking on I think he goes down as our 2nd best coach ever. He also has a shit load of tail winds behind him but he’s the right man for his time. again- I’m not guaranteeing 16 but think that number is closer than 10 or so when it’s all said and done.

Is this the worst week of college football? It’s pretty bleak. It can get a lot more fun if aggy loses to Florida and OU continues to flounder about against Tulane- both those things would be fun. if Wisconsin can make it interesting or aggy Florida finds amusement you can get through the day with somewhat interesting viewing in all the time periods, but if Bama throttles Wisconsin or aggy looks like less than warmed over dog shit against Florida destroying my urge to point and laugh then you have massive holes in the schedule with nothing all that compelling going on. Maybe I will play with my kids or pay attention to the wife or something like that if the worst case scenario happens. Also, am at 70% through the first 3 weeks picking against the line. Both picks and money management. I fully expect to regress hard to the mean this week- I think I like 2 lines in the entire board- just a brutal week if you are into the game within the game.

Espada is really bad at managing a pitching staff. Amongst other things.

He misspelled better. It happens.

Nahlin at IT dropped an early look (about 2 hours after I posted my bump) and had 11 guys with absolute draft grades right now and 6 or 7 that were "too early to know" that was basically my 3 year guys that I had sorted in maybe yes and maybe no. He had Broughton in 4th round and Majors in the 5th. I'm not saying he's right or anything but I expect both those guys to be drafted but didn't put them in locks.

I’m projecting some stuff into the future when I have a guy like Ethan Burke mentioned (I have him in my probably not). Do I think he’s exiting and going pro after this year? Not really. But if he comes in and gets a ton of snaps as the rush guy and gets 10 sacks? It could happen. I think it will happen for at least one of the guys mentioned because that’s how that shit works. Maybe 2. And maybe the 8 for sure guys something weird happens to one of them and it’s 7. It’s an in exact science obviously and it’s very early in the year. a guy like Campbell or Williams absolutely will get drafted if they threw their name in this year. I think Cam might be a top 50 pick. Does Campbell want to stick around if he gets a 5th round grade? He strikes me as likely to be gone but I don’t know- maybe he sees himself as a top 3 guard off the board if he plays another season and wants to come back. NIL will make a lot of those decisions way more interesting as I know I don’t have to tell you being so involved in that whole scene You said I was blind and implied it was an absurd post and premise. Sort of like my Sark love after he nailed the off-season after 5-7 when you banished me to my own thread while I was saying I thought he might end up the 2nd or 3rd best coach at Texas seeing him attack that offseason (and of course all the tail winds that guys like you had a big hand in creating-thank you) Am I right about everything? No. But I’ve gotten an absurd amount of pushback whenever I post anything about football and in the main I’ve been right. I’m not saying it’s absolutely positively going to be 16 guys and I’m betting my life on it (as was implied by screw it- I’ll say 16) but if it ends up being 14 then I had the sense of it and didn’t deserve to be told I was blind and get the wow at the end. what you call Cassandra when I reply to you is me respecting your intelligence and football acumen and being bummed and defending myself when you dismiss me. Cool. I respect you and I wear my heart on my sleeve a little bit. Sorry. I’m sure I’m a pussy or subject derision for some for being genuine on the internet or caring about what people I respect say to me/about me. Shrugs. I don’t know how to live my life any other way. Sorry if it bothers you- wasn’t my intention.

I will absolutely take whatever money you want on that.

Bureaus. It’s really really really deserving of getting them fire bombed. It’s awful and I can’t even comprehend why it’s ok. We’ve ceded way too much control of our financial lives to the credit bureaus and they are shit heads.

2025 draft. I believe everyone in the first 3 groups barring grisly injury gets drafted eventually, but I’m playing guessing game as to who goes when as between this year and next year.

Cool. How many you got? I don’t know many who had 10 plus like I did after last year and I got mocked most of the lead up to the draft. Then 11 happened. when this team goes 15-1 or 16-0 there will be a large Halo effect around it that will get guys like Jake Majors or David Gbenda drafted in the 7th round, or Silas Bolden taken as a kick returner. Kind of like what happened with Whittington and Robinson. Thats my guess. What’s yours?

Horns drafted for sure: Ewers, Bond, Banks, Collins, Sorrell, Makuba, Barron, Helm (I’ve got all 8 here) horns drafted if they declare early (and likely to): Cam Williams, Blue, Trey Moore, DJ Campbell (3) could go early and would probably be drafted but probably won’t: Ethan Burke, Golden, Guilbeau, Hayden Connor (1) Better than 50/50 to get drafted: Holmes, Bolden, broughton, David Gbenda, Jake Majors, (4) screw it. I’ve got 16 guys getting drafted.

Soft pull, opt out, hard pull, order payoff right before closing. It is so lousy for the borrower. Yes- I've spent $5,000 of my own money plus 2 weeks over the last 2 years (plus an hour a month additional) lobbying to get this cleaned up. It's gross and disgusting.

Some interesting numbers from Habib today. Average distance between the top of the 10 year and the point it's at when the first rate cut happens is 1.40 points. 10 year topped out in this cycle at 5.0. So, if this is where it's at next week it's basically dead bang on the average. If the rate cuts continue to happen as they have on average in the past cycles we would expect the 10 year to bottom out (probably in 12-18 months) at about 2.2%. Typically, mortgage rates have about a 2 point spread on the 10 year (this has grown greater during rates going up but will probably get back to normal spread as they go down). Thus- if this happens the bottom should see national average (I'm guessing 18-24 months from now after about 250 basis points in cuts by the fed) bottom out about 4.25 for the national average. Work with a good broker and that means you should be in the high 3's at the trough of this mortgage cycle. Maybe low 4's. This strikes me as likely and intuitively right- as in 2019 we were at low 4's for the national average and mid to high 3's for my clients before Covid came and distorted the entire market. If the 10 year performs less than average during this rate cutting cycle that would means national rates between 4.5 and 4.75 so a sharply priced buyer would be low 4's.

Episode 78. We talk week that was, hat tip to Framber and Brown, a little JV and then astros best 9.

Everyone who got within 10 yards- good job. 2 tied at 205, @Sgt Hulk and @Dr.Dre. Dr Dre score was closest so that is going to function as a tie breaker. Good job to both yall.