Wulaw Horn

Cool. How many you got? I don’t know many who had 10 plus like I did after last year and I got mocked most of the lead up to the draft. Then 11 happened. when this team goes 15-1 or 16-0 there will be a large Halo effect around it that will get guys like Jake Majors or David Gbenda drafted in the 7th round, or Silas Bolden taken as a kick returner. Kind of like what happened with Whittington and Robinson. Thats my guess. What’s yours?

Horns drafted for sure: Ewers, Bond, Banks, Collins, Sorrell, Makuba, Barron, Helm (I’ve got all 8 here) horns drafted if they declare early (and likely to): Cam Williams, Blue, Trey Moore, DJ Campbell (3) could go early and would probably be drafted but probably won’t: Ethan Burke, Golden, Guilbeau, Hayden Connor (1) Better than 50/50 to get drafted: Holmes, Bolden, broughton, David Gbenda, Jake Majors, (4) screw it. I’ve got 16 guys getting drafted.

Soft pull, opt out, hard pull, order payoff right before closing. It is so lousy for the borrower. Yes- I've spent $5,000 of my own money plus 2 weeks over the last 2 years (plus an hour a month additional) lobbying to get this cleaned up. It's gross and disgusting.

Some interesting numbers from Habib today. Average distance between the top of the 10 year and the point it's at when the first rate cut happens is 1.40 points. 10 year topped out in this cycle at 5.0. So, if this is where it's at next week it's basically dead bang on the average. If the rate cuts continue to happen as they have on average in the past cycles we would expect the 10 year to bottom out (probably in 12-18 months) at about 2.2%. Typically, mortgage rates have about a 2 point spread on the 10 year (this has grown greater during rates going up but will probably get back to normal spread as they go down). Thus- if this happens the bottom should see national average (I'm guessing 18-24 months from now after about 250 basis points in cuts by the fed) bottom out about 4.25 for the national average. Work with a good broker and that means you should be in the high 3's at the trough of this mortgage cycle. Maybe low 4's. This strikes me as likely and intuitively right- as in 2019 we were at low 4's for the national average and mid to high 3's for my clients before Covid came and distorted the entire market. If the 10 year performs less than average during this rate cutting cycle that would means national rates between 4.5 and 4.75 so a sharply priced buyer would be low 4's.

Episode 78. We talk week that was, hat tip to Framber and Brown, a little JV and then astros best 9.

Everyone who got within 10 yards- good job. 2 tied at 205, @Sgt Hulk and @Dr.Dre. Dr Dre score was closest so that is going to function as a tie breaker. Good job to both yall.

I think we have 5 or 6 scores of 31-13 that all tied for the winner. I put in every other thing I thought was really good or captured the spirit of the game. Winner of the score due to the tie breaker is @Fico with 192. @FloridaHorn @jettrink@BigHorn, @CfRhTxStBobcats all with 31-13 guesses

bump- working on scoring it now.

If it's not fixed by kick time tonight I'm pulling the cord. Fuck those fucking assholes that call themselves a must for sports and then can't get it together to get ESPN and ABC during football season. Fuck them in the ass.

Texas- 55 UTSA- 3 This game should be incredibly boring. They suck. We are really really good. We are deep and we have a bunch of young guys super excited to fight for playing time and I think Sark wants to make sure that depth is sharpened and ready to go- so I expect him to substitute liberally, get lots of guys involved, be more pass happy then normal as Blue got a little dinged and we are very shallow in the RB room, and we have a bunch of really good receivers that need to eat. They likely have nothing for our defense when they are on offense. I'd predict a shutout but that's tacky- so I will give them 3. Prop bet- total passing yards but there is a catch- I want Ewers/Arch/Other for UT. 348 yards 205/130/13 Good luck!

Pretty clearly in my mind. I’m always ahead of the curve on this stuff and occasionally wrong. Don’t think I am here though.

28-31 huh? Brave brave brave. We would have beaten Michigan by that if we had wanted to. Really out on a limb there doctor.

2 scrimmages in a row.4 if you count at Michigan and CSU. We should get Quinn the Heisman and Arch enough time to be Honorable Mention all conference. The SEC meat grinder myth the Ags sell looks pretty absurd today. aggy sucks. OU is mid. Arky is blah. Kentucky, Vandy, Mississippi State and Florida all have pulled the bookshelves down on top of themselves this year. I’m incredibly unimpressed with our new conference mates so far.

Don’t be vaginas. We win this game easily. We are really good.

What a wonderful week of football. All eyes on Texas and we dominated. Quinn Ewers looks like a Heisman guy. This team is pretty clearly the best at Texas since 2005. Notre dame lost to a directional school. A week after beating aggy at home. So- it’s a 2-fer in schadenfreude. OU almost lost to UH, the same UH team that lost by 20 to UNLV week one. Arky lost. And got their heart ripped out doing so. The rest of our schedule (outside Georgia) is ass and my suspicion is Texas and Georgia will play 3 times to determine the 1 seed, SEC champ and College football champ. This season has been about as good as it gets so far. UTSA on the docket. We thought they might have an outside chance at the playoffs. Now, that’s might be Texas State instead after last week. PHD candidate at QB for UTSA is gone, and what was a frisky team won’t likely even be a speed bump. Arch plays a lot. We score 50 something. We allow 0-10 or something. Avoid injuries and get ready for the epic battle the next week against ULM. The SEC really needs to go to 9 games. Bunch of big talking cowards. Oh well. UTSA game week thoughts here. Hook Em high like an Eagle soars.

I laughed at him before the game started.

Contest closed. May the odds be always in your favor.

Charlie strong kick off both halves strategy imo.

Rusty Shackleford is good people.

That’s justice.

I meant actual gambling, but yeah that works too.

That jobs report wasn't a mixed bag is was putrid. The expectation was low and missed by double digit percentage and the last two months were revised down by 89k. That brings total revisions for the year through 8 months to 365,000 which means that over 20% of the jobs originally reported NEVER happened. There is something fundamentally broken (either through intentions or incompetence) going on with the BLS and it's all coming through the birth/death model in small business. Which you can see as it's constantly at odds with ADP. JOLTS on Wednesday was revised down and at lowest level since 2009 (excluding covid b/c it's insane not to). Quit rate is lowest since 2014. Hire rate is low. To the extent that unemployment went down from 4.3% to 4.2% it is nothing more than people giving up working. I took a strong position at polymarket on 50 bip rate cut when it was trading at 16% (like 2 weeks ago). It's now at 35%. 5 of the last 6 initial cuts were 50 bips. I don't see any particular reason why this is different. I'm selling everything over my initial investment so that's all I have at play right now so I'm in the black already and can't lose, but I expect to ride this all the way to 100 or 0. I think it's 50 but who knows. I'd also buy futures at 3, 4 & 5 rate cuts for the year which you can get at 28, 25 and 21 respectively right now. If any of those hit that's a profit. Gun to my head I'd be on 4, but I think 5 is more likely than 3. They call every 25 bips a rate cut in the market- so if it goes 50 bips on 9/18 they will call that 2 rate cuts. Put another way- they have 3 meetings left- I absolutely believe they will cut at all 3 of them. My guess would be 2, 1, 1 for 4, but I could see 1,1,1 or 2,1,2 if the bottom really falls out between here and there. my bet is 10-12 cuts between here and the end of this economic cycle, but I don't think you can actually bet on that.

Yessir. Was pretty excited to see I can do that on a conventional with a 5 as the front handle. It's finally working!

On a standard conventional loan (national average- 6.38%) with $7000 going to cover all closing costs including interest? Not high at all. We making 95 bips on that deal.

Just Locked someone on a free loan where we pay all their closing costs on a conventional at 5.875. He wanted that over lowest rate which would have been 5.5. National average is at 6.38% right now. That's the lowest it's been in a couple years- I believe. My two favorite seasons are Football season and refinance season. Pretty sure they are both here now.