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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. To me beat yourself means turnovers, penalties and dumb shit stuff that's self inflicted, not being fucking incapable of scoring on good teams. The former is about self inflicted bullshit, the latter is sort of about what your actual quality as a program is. It's a slight distinction but after a loss we say things like "if only we wouldn't have done this, that or the other we'd have won" while they say things like- if only we were capable of completing a forward pass we would have won. There's a distincition there even if there's not a difference. I bet on the incompetant team (them) over the one that likes to cut itself so that it can feel alive (us) if it all comes down to the end of the game.
  2. Also, holy shit I've been selling sunshine on this program for 4 years now- since december of 21 when Sark killed the recruiting and the portal. I've got optimistic threads in 2022 and 2023 where I had the zeitgeist of this team and this program right with the arrow pointed up, while a confederacy of dunces surrounded me bleating stupid shit like "6-6 with 8-4 as an absolute ceiling" or "we are losing to Bama" or "we won't be ready for the SEC" or all sorts of other nonsense. Hell, even in the darkest post I've made on here in forever I still say 10-2 or 11-1 and playoffs, losing in the quarters or semi's. That's not exactly grim, that's just what this team looks like to me as a best case scenario, unless we get a lot better, which, hey it could happen and I want it to. If I'm a little more surly than normal I got into some poison ivy while trying to fix up a rental house and it's covering my entier body with rashes, blisters and my eyes swollen shut, head to toes, stomach, legs and gooner. It's day 6. Chat GPT tells me it's the worst from day 4-7. Holy hell I'm miserable, itching, swelling, unable to sleep etc. At least I'm on enough steroids to hit a home run at MMP right now.
  3. I mean- this is why I’m perfectly comfortable saying we go 11-1 or 10-2 and are favored in all our games sans perhaps Georgia. it’s a shitty year for college football with no great teams, but Ohio state has shown they aren’t going to literally beat themselves and I would guess the same about PSU, Notre Dame, probably Georgia. None of those teams are “good” and PSU is really really shitty at doing anything against similarly talented teams, but would you bet on us right now down 13-7 with 1st and 20 on the 20 to punch it in and beat them?
  4. I mean- did I say Alabama looked like pressed asshole on a mirror before they won back to back titles? No. I started calling them Alabraska 2 seconds before we made that happen. Hope I'm wrong on this. If your boy Parker is as good as you keep telling everyone he is then we will probably be ok. I, unlike you, am suspicous of white WR's not named Shipley and need to see more of that kind of dynamism from #13 before I think our offense is going to be able to overcome a mediocre OL, backs that run for only what's blocked with no dynamism, other WR that don't separate and drop balls that hit them in the hand and a QB who spent large portions of the first 2 weeks skipping rocks. Oh- and penalties and dumb 4th down calls (not going but what we choose to do when we go for it).
  5. Yes. We will beat the piss out of UTEP. What you said about arch is why I’m down. I saw an offense that’s less talented than we’ve had the last 2 years but able to be overcome with dynamism at QB. If Arch was great and a force multiplier it would overcome Quinn’s weaknesses and we’d be better. That doesn’t look like the case. That’s the problem. Sure. I thought in year 3 arch would be ready to be really good. If he’s a 1/1 guy you are looking for generational type play. Not perfection right off but more than we are getting now. Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe go fuck yourself gif. You think Sark is happy about what we are putting on film right now offensively? I doubt it. Whenever we struggled against teams like rice during Mack we were good, not great teams. That’s driving my concern here. Feels a lot like 2002 type teams. Yep. also- whoever quoted Htwown thanks for nothing. He eats paint chips. I didn’t bet this game and bet almost nothing. I also probably have less than 5,000 a year at risk in total bets and finish within 1,000 of break even one way or another as is the case when you make a ton of 25 and 50 bets. I spend way more on vacations, Astros tickets and longhorn travel as far as entertainment goes. The idea that a couple small bets (I didn’t make any so far this year other than my season bet which is still in good shape) would color my perception of this team is as dumb as he is. If anything gambling sharpens looking at all the teams we play with clear eyes and avoiding the fucking idiotic takes from last week like “this teams ceiling is 9-3”. Uh, not it’s not dipshit, teams play other teams and we are better than every team on our schedule right now. I have one season bet with Doc OU and that’s that we go 10-2 or 11-1 and are favored every game. As I made abundantly clear our schedule sucks and I fully expect to go 10-2 or 11-1 and make the playoffs and probably lose in the quarters or semis when we play a team that takes advantage of us beating ourselves. I thought this team was going to be national title good. It’s early and we still might get there, but it’s not particularly close right now and won’t get there unless and until arch plays like a 1/1 kind of guy.
  6. My perfect batting order with everyone available (against RHP) Peña, Paredes, Correa, Yordan, Sanchez, Altuve, Walker, Diaz, Meyers. bam, that’s it. Sanchez in the 5 spot is a bit weak, but that makes 6-9 better than its counterpart.
  7. Or tomorrow probably not Tuesday either.
  8. Dumb penalties, fumbles, dumb decisions stopping ourselves, goal line problems, 3-12 on 3rd downs. The list is long and impressive (like my Johnson). We can get better. We need to. the hoopleheads who call 9-3 our ceiling don’t understand the ineptitude on the rest of our schedule. I thought we had a fair shot at winning the national title this year- this doesn’t look like a teams that can put together 3 or 4 quality game in a row without self-sabotage to get to that standard. Which is the only thing worth considering at this point in our program cycle.
  9. Hello darkness my old friend…. well, after not being concerned after a week 1 loss I’m despondent after a 5 score win. Everything that could be glossed over by Arch being wildly inaccurate in week 1 and opening game jitters and playing a blue blood and blah blah blah was there in Week 2. The old saw says you will never see more improvement than between week 1 and 2 is often accurate and if that’s true of this Texas team then we are not good enough. The rest of our schedule and the SEC in general sucks. I’m still comfortable with my $1000 bet that we will go 10-2 or 11-1 and be favored in all our games (except maybe slight dog at UGA who also has plenty of their own problems) but this team fails in the pass fail standard. they better get a whole lot better throughout the year. First chance is next week against UTEP. Scoreboard doesn’t matter- play to a standard that doesn’t suck.
  10. Sub Paredes for Caratini and our by far best offensive playoff lineup designed to score 1 run.
  11. He needs to be more than fine. He needs to be the elevator and that doesn’t look good right now.
  12. We suck. so does aggy. so does gator. so does OU. so does arky. so do Kentucky and Vandy so does Clemson. so does bama. but yeah/ Arch needed to be good to elevate this offense and apparently he isn’t.
  13. Maybe. Maybe there’s some hedge as well thinking we could see a bit of a surprise 50 point cut. I personally think they are still too restrictive by 150-200 basis points but I’m a contrarian by nature, who knows. I follow the macro but trying to time up policy or market moves in the extreme short term is a fools errand. Like trying to time any market be it stock, housing etc. I have so many problems with how my industry has been run the last 2.5 years from a facing the customer perspective that it makes me sort of ragey in a purely autistic kind of way where something doesn’t affect me but it bothers me bc it’s not being done right. do you know that when rates where in the 7’s 80% of the market was buying points? That’s literally fucking insane. Buying points at the height of the market when you are most likely at any time ever to be refinancing shortly into the future? it’s like the morons who were putting people on arms during Covid… really? You want to make it so your rate can get worse than 2.75%? there’s nothing in this game that’s more important than the break even time. Get that break even below 6 months (0 is better, having money out in your pocket is even better than that) and don’t get greedy and take money off the table (for free) every time rates drop. this was actually a fuller answer to gator’s question
  14. This is why I structure everything for all bills paid when rates are higher. So they can jump and take the win now and do it again in 6 months. My suggestion is not to hunt bottom until you get into 30’s with a 4 handle. Personally I have 37 loans on the books right now for September and expect to add 15 more. That’s after closing 19 in August. I expect to be the #1 or 2 volume LO in texas in the broker channel for the month. We shall see. My clients response that have worked with me in the past is trust, because we’ve planned this strategy for a year or two with lender paid buy downs, lots of closing cost money from me and other stuff. people who get referred to me have a response of “why doesn’t everyone do this?” Well, bc the typical customer doesn’t understand the business so they ask exactly one question “what’s your rate?” So the vast majority of LO’s become stupid rate monkeys that don’t listen to their customers lives and plan strategy accordingly.
  15. Should be about it for major moves. we are now 99% baked in on rate cut(s).
  16. This crew has been so fucking terrible this series. Both ways.
  17. Those fuckers hate me so badly they will bring up shithead Gordon whose sell by date was sometime in June.
  18. If he can hit at all I would DH him in the playoffs and PR with Melton for him the second he got on base. Then I would have Urias, Dubon and Caratini pinch hit in the DH spot the rest of the game. It's not like you are going to PH for: Pena, Alvarez, Correa, Yainer, Walker, Altuve, Meyers or Sanchez. So, yeah- rotate them all through the DH spot. Why not?
  19. Dh. Altuve at 2B. Yordan in LF. IF RHP Pena, Alvarez, Paredes, Altuve, Correa, Sanchez, Walker, Diaz, Meyers IF LHP Pena, Paredes, Alvarez, Altuve, Correa, Walker, Diaz, Meyers, Smith. I feel fairly confident that either of those lineups should be really fucking good as there isn't a bad hitter in the bunch and should in actuallity be likely to average 1.5 runs over a playoff series as we get a brook shoved up our ass.
  20. Fight then fuck.
  21. This for sure. If it was an accident you have to at least act like you feel bad about it.
  22. Fuck no. I never wanted Espada. I said there was a reason why that dumb dumb had 4 or 5 interviews and didn't get the job. Did I want Dusty gone? Yes. At basically all costs? Yes. My pod on the day we hired Espada read exactly like Wadlington's Preseason magazine the year we hired Chuckles the clown with best case, worst case, somewhere in the middle b/c I didn't want to come out and immediately shit on it- but if you read between the lines I expected him to suck. All that said- manager typically isn't all that important unless he's actively undermining the team b/c they hate him or if he's playing the wrong players day in day out. Dusty was waaaaaay too guilty of the latter. Neither of them struggle with the former- which is really the greatest problem for most managers. Truthfully, I think it was just 3 Putt posting 874 times not some groundswell of support for Slow Joe Espada.
  23. Again, explain to me what his value add is. You cannot. Your "we are in first bullshit" confuses causation and correlation. He's elite at nothing. He's tolerable at a couple things, he's horrific at most.
  24. YEah- but Alvarez has only been back for a week. During which Caratini and Diaz were hurt. I expect the 9 guys I put in there to be more or less the 4 good, 1 great, 3 average and 1 below average paradigm going forward. Hopefully starting tonight...
  25. If you've listened to any of my pods, or seen any of my blogs or posts you know that I was NEVER really positive on the hire and always sceptical. He's just dumb at the end of the day. Someone who knows the inner workings of the Astros has descirbed him as a dumb dog but loyal so you can't get mad at him when he shits all over the floor. He's open and non-antagnonstic to what Dana wants done (unlike Dusty) and everyone genuinely likes him as a really good human being. He's just dumb as a box of rocks, shitty at communicating and brings problems on himself b/c of that (that he solves b/c who can stay mad at the good natured simpleton giving it his all). Ugh. Fire him yesterday. Find someone that is actually smart, collaborative and isn't a total and complete asshole. That doesn't seem all that hard. Alas. we had it and Manfred made us get rid of it. The only thing that's been right the last 3 skippers have in common is not a major asshole that wears on people in the clubhouse. So, no Terry Collins. Larry Dierker would be fine (pre seizure Dirk). Morgan Ensberg and Jason Lane both still in coaching? I'd give them both a seroius look. Tim Bogar if he's still in the game. I'm picking former Astros I know that were good in teh clubhouse and not morons that have had minor league managing and Major League staff experience. None of them are Stanford grads in counseling or whatever like AJ Hinch, but they are all smart enough and decent people. I also have to believe that with no status in previous managing stops they'd all be ameneable to working hand in hand with the front office.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

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