I'm not getting high on my own supply. I'm saying that this is not like we haven't had a real world fucking example, less than 4 years ago at this point, and what it looked like isn't even remotely close to what you are talking about in your alternative scenario. And, my response was a pushback to worst case dooming presented as a fait accomplis, from someone in an industry that doesn't know shit about fuck apparently telling us to get over something or other (or how @UTPhil2006 basically pushed back- and @LCHornlater). I've been in rooms with the wizards of smart predicting politics that just doesn't make fucking sense. I win money when I make political bets now (after getting my ass kicked on the bed bet in 2016 and diving deep enough to be able to sort through the prognostication bets). I'm cashing tickets left and right and have been for 4 cycles.
You also don't need to have deep budget cuts to fix all this shit- private sector efficiency and just getting rid of the covid era excess can do lots of the same thing you need.
If you think that Trump, Musk and all the other people with real world success are going to conspire to create a climate that doesn't work for business you can certainly make that bet. What I'm telling you is I will take call comers and cash that check as well.
This bond market you are talking about is the same merry collection of dipshits that gets headfaked every time a bullshit job number comes out to a worse extent than my 9 year old daughter fake throwing the tennis ball to my golden retriever who then cackles over and over and over to herself.
The numbers will get cleaned up on the jobs side. The rampant runaway expansion of the government will get curbed just a bit. Inflation in the real world will match the government number once shelter reality catches up with what's actually happening, and we will get back to a median rate around 4.5- which- as my point was is where it's essentially been for the last 25 years absent bullshit monetary policies related to COVID (which gave us artificially low rates on the way down and then caused the, also artificial, pop on the way back up).
But sure- I was mocked and ridiculed basically every month for calling bullshit on everything related to the BLS until they said- whoops- can't find like 1,000,000 jobs. Must have misplaced them somewhere. Anyone see them? Nope.
Again- make the bet- I have with my entire life.