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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Last year after we lost to OU I think I had it figured out that there were 33 things that would have to all happen to conspire to keep us out of the CFP. Like 32 of those happened but we got the 1 result we needed (Georgia loss) and we ended up fine. a 10-2 Texas team might get left out of the playoffs, sure. But if even 1 of these things happen we are probably pretty much good to go: Aggy loss to Auburn or us Domer loss to Army or USC Ohio state losses to Indiana and Michigan Indiana losing by 50 to Ohio State (or losing to Purdue) Georgia losing to Georgia Tech ole miss losing to Florida or MSU TN losing to Vandy Alabama losing to OU or Auburn Penn State losing to Rutgers or whatever bullshit team they have left That’s it. To keep us out I think we’d need to see nothing happen on that list. And that’s just not really likely to have zero unsurprising things happen in something like 20 college football events.
  2. It’s always written Sunday morning. Except that one time when I was so polluted I forgetted about it for like 3 days and someone else had a half ass game week thread (Florida game). that was my bad for sure.
  3. Now go look at the other side of the ball.
  4. Florida could do us a major solid this week and beat Ole Miss and give us some breathing room. Also, root for Army or USC to beat the Domers and that makes it likely we go 5 SEC teams instead of 4.
  5. You and I are watching the same team in orange and the same one in blue. if I wanted to be mean to Kentucky (why bother?) I’d have spent some time talking about the shame of getting cucked by aggy I suppose.
  6. First of all, I want to say- fuck you Arkansas- good to get that off my chest. We deliveranced your offense with our defense and did just enough on offense to beat you while crushing your hopes and dreams for 60 minutes, thinking you had a chance when you really didn’t. Twas nice. Next year I think we will probably just do the thing where we beat you by 6 TD’s and you can tell us which loss was more painful. Look forward to checking in on that in 365. Next up- Kentucky. Look- this game is why I think it’s easier for Texas to play in the SEC than the big 12. We have a second rate team that’s coming off a bye and a cupcake. I’m not particularly worried. If that was, say, Iowa State or Kansas State or Tech we would get a jihad of all jihads called down upon us. And that would basically happen 9 times a year. Kentucky? In Austin in November? Betting the vibe from the fanbase and the players is more of a “how cool is it to be here in Austin playing Texas?” than said jihad I referenced with the big 12. For a conference with a lot of talk about “it just means more” I don’t have the slightest bit of respect for “the meat grinder”. This is the type of game those half wits from college station used to talk about all the time. But but but, you don’t have to play a team like Kentucky, who has nfl athletes all over their defense as a mid tier game. Ok? We had to settle for being tech’s Super Bowl and getting schemed for 365 days by legitimately great X and O guys. We will see again this week a shitty offensive team with some athletes that we should easily take care of if we don’t self sabotage. I’m going to go ahead and look forward to the game in College Station in 2 weeks and overlook these generic and boring nothings. Now, I will be very excited when they are in Austin for hoops. Once we get that fixed. Which I assume is next on the agenda. But until then I look forward to getting through the 3rd and final completely and totally generically boring game with zero interest this overrated conference of half wits have served up (MSU, Vandy, Kentucky). maybe yall are more excited than I am for Big Blue to roll into town. I’d just like to see Ewers hit a deep shot or two- get up 14 early- and then point and laugh as they set offensive football back 3 decades.
  7. I’d do that in a heartbeat.
  8. I am not good at that. I literally googled her name and hit images and they all look better than that. she’s absolutely stunning in casual pictures, performing, hair up. I have no idea what that one is about. Also, profile and backside is better.
  9. She’s absolutely gorgeous. That doesn’t show that imo. To each their own.
  10. You managed to find the ugliest pitcher of her on the internet, congrats?
  11. Last 8 cycles goes well beyond 20 years man, in all kinds of environments.
  12. This is like the people that ask for a ride to the airport. What? $25.00 a day is some sort of insurmountable thing? And failing that Uber stopped working? if you have enough money to get on an airplane you have enough money to not involve me in that nonsense. It blows my mind how many people think that asking for a ride to/from the airport is ok. As a society we should throw rocks at them until this custom stops.
  13. We are in favor of 9 games. We are not absolute vaginas.
  14. Hit expectations at increase of 0.2. Was expected. Replacement was very low (same for next 2 months). Should dip in January/february. MBS market up. Rates getting better today after a very lousy day yesterday.
  15. Average of the last 8 times we’ve done this would say 2.5-2.75 or so. Mortgage rates typically are 2 points higher on the spread. That would be mid 4’s at the end of this cycle. Could this be radically different? Sure. I’m betting on lots of history against that.
  16. Sure. The world could fundamentally change from how it is and has been from a long time. That’s absolutely on the table. That’s what it would take- a fundamental change.
  17. That's not true. There weas stuff that made "economic conditions materially different than they were 60 days ago" JOLTS came in at 8.2 or 8.4M and kicked off the entire fucking doom cycle. Then BLS reported eleventy billion new jobs (mostly by 15-19 year olds after school had started- figure that out) and inflation came in literally at .5 and got rounded up instead of .4 and getting rounded down, and, combined with uncertainty that plays out every time we have an election a doom cycle started. Of course- then after that bullshittery got kicked off we saw- "just kidding- we overstated JOLTS BY 600 FUCKING THOUSAND JOBS" and a 12k jobs number but it didn't matter b/c the market had already doomed and gone the wrong fucking direction chasing ghosts. Also- huge stock market run up over election excitement afterwards, people covering shorts, bulls on the Trump trades etc sucked liquidity out of bond market (as happens when one runs super hot) and we haven't seen it flow back the other way. As far as the person asking about what rates will be tomorrow I couldn't tell you- I will bet that as of the end of the year nobody that started with me with a rate in the 7's from 2023 will end 2024 with a rate in the 7's, none of them will have paid a single fucking cent in discount points, and most of them won't have paid a dime in closing costs b/c we will have covered those in the bet that better days are ahead again and you won't be in your mortgage all that much longer. And I make that bet for the customer b/c I plan on (and have) talked to all of them in 6-12 months.
  18. I'm not getting high on my own supply. I'm saying that this is not like we haven't had a real world fucking example, less than 4 years ago at this point, and what it looked like isn't even remotely close to what you are talking about in your alternative scenario. And, my response was a pushback to worst case dooming presented as a fait accomplis, from someone in an industry that doesn't know shit about fuck apparently telling us to get over something or other (or how @UTPhil2006 basically pushed back- and @LCHornlater). I've been in rooms with the wizards of smart predicting politics that just doesn't make fucking sense. I win money when I make political bets now (after getting my ass kicked on the bed bet in 2016 and diving deep enough to be able to sort through the prognostication bets). I'm cashing tickets left and right and have been for 4 cycles. You also don't need to have deep budget cuts to fix all this shit- private sector efficiency and just getting rid of the covid era excess can do lots of the same thing you need. If you think that Trump, Musk and all the other people with real world success are going to conspire to create a climate that doesn't work for business you can certainly make that bet. What I'm telling you is I will take call comers and cash that check as well. This bond market you are talking about is the same merry collection of dipshits that gets headfaked every time a bullshit job number comes out to a worse extent than my 9 year old daughter fake throwing the tennis ball to my golden retriever who then cackles over and over and over to herself. The numbers will get cleaned up on the jobs side. The rampant runaway expansion of the government will get curbed just a bit. Inflation in the real world will match the government number once shelter reality catches up with what's actually happening, and we will get back to a median rate around 4.5- which- as my point was is where it's essentially been for the last 25 years absent bullshit monetary policies related to COVID (which gave us artificially low rates on the way down and then caused the, also artificial, pop on the way back up). But sure- I was mocked and ridiculed basically every month for calling bullshit on everything related to the BLS until they said- whoops- can't find like 1,000,000 jobs. Must have misplaced them somewhere. Anyone see them? Nope. Again- make the bet- I have with my entire life.
  19. We are inflationary for debt because almost the entirety of GDP growth has been on the back of government sector (and adjacent government sector of health care). we get back to an economy that actually sees private sector growth and it won’t be inflationary. We saw this in the first Trump Presidency.
  20. I will absolutely take the opposite side of this bet. We were refinancing people into the mid 5’s 60 days ago. the only thing causing inflation right now to be beyond the 2% mark is shelter costs and that’s a fucked yo calculation that has nothing to do with real world events (look up how owners equivalent rent is calculated, realize that’s like 35% of the component and then have utter and complete contempt for government numbers). we’ve had 20 years of data saying 4.5 is more or less the median rate- it’s not resetting to 7 being considered a good rate.
  21. Sam Pittman is both a cunt and a pussy, and Arkansas should fire him for being a jackass regardless of what the record is.
  22. Horns 48 Hogs 13. prop bet/ total yards from scrimmage for WR room: 333
  23. I mean- it's not going to happen. But damn it would be fun.
  24. Oh my goodness- that's Ryan Presley's music.
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