Jump to content

Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
  • Posts

    19974
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. If you want to make a change and think it's necessary then acting irrational is, sometimes, a rational move. Again, I said I don't like any of that negotiating strategy of brinksmanship or convincing the other party they have to swerve b/c you are a nut, but that doesn't mean it's irrational.
  2. Is such a scenario possible? Sure. Am I predicting that? No. Just saying if that's the actual play I'm onboard. Yeah- I'm dumb. I basically predicted the strategy that made sense 5 minutes before it happened and told Horn4life to sell it all b/c I'm a big big dummy. Along with being in the top 2/10's of 1% of my industry b/c I can strategically see and put together deals better than other people. DUMB. Or, nailing the Sark hire and what he was doing after being 5-7. And writing at length about it. Or- saying the Astros were going to win the division in 23 and 24 when they were buried under a mountain of shit. My track record on this board from the beginning is wrong about everything. Go look at the 2025 draft thread where I say we are getting mid double digits from last April for another example of Wulaw missing the point!
  3. Maybe? Maybe not? There are negotiations that will happen that otherwise wouldn’t have. NAFTA probably got a little better for us in 2018 and I’d expect other things to happen the same way with this. I’m up for a bet that our trade deficits go down 10% over - let’s say 26-28 compared to baseline of 22-24. Maybe it would have happened anyway but I isn’t see anyone else offering better terms without us broaching the subject.
  4. I don’t know that was the game or not. I hoped it wasn’t and said it would be dumb if it was but it was possible he actually believed that shit. I think we will onshore some national security shit that’s China has done up to now and I think trade deficits will get a little bit better. I don’t like the negotiating strategy of brinksmanship for incremental improvements (I don’t go to my wife and threaten divorce because I want Friday to be steak and blow job night- even if it might be likely to work bc what if it doesn’t?) but who the hell knows? convincing the other person you are a nut in a game of chicken is an effective strategy to make them swerve, but why fucking bother unless it’s super important? What we are trying to do with China might be, the other stuff is dumb.
  5. It’s not just tariffs - as you know- it’s all sorts of cheating and unfair trade practices. our trade deals will probably get about 5-10% better because of this (I don’t like the strategy) with the countries onboard. We will see what the China fallout looks like eventually. or:
  6. 125% tariffs on China won’t destroy our economy overnight or ever. There’s a grand rearranging that’s possible and if that’s what we are trying to do I’m in for some temporary pain if it will bring them to heel and fix our national security problems that showed during Covid with over dependence on them. I’m just glad the plan wasn’t to nuke the entire world, which I thought might be on the table. But yeah, I basically called it 10 minutes before it happened, in real time, on this page, while also admitting it’s possible there is no grand design and he’s that dumb. Shrugs.
  7. I literally told you to do that 10 minutes prior. Ha! reminds me of getting on the phone with my clients Thursday night and Friday morning to set up refi’s. Had 10 deals ready to go and it tuned out my window on deals I started to put together at 2:00 pm Thursday more or less slammed shut by Friday at lunch time. oh well.
  8. That’s also certainly possible.
  9. That was my take, and while I don’t love that negotiating strategy it’s effective (until it isn’t!) many many times. If that’s what happens he gets another win, the country wins and we can look to actively horsefucking China, which is owed a huge fucking beating for all the ways they lie, cheat, steal and oh by the way caused the entire covid worldwide pandemic those bunch of commie assholes. as to why I believed this might not be a ploy, Trump is a 1980’s style Democrat of the Dick Gephart stripe that’s loved Tarrifs (at least in theory) for his whole life, so I was a bit concerned the whole thing was going to be not a ploy but actual belief.
  10. You missed the entire last two paragraphs bro- the part where I started it with “But, it’s possible he actually wants tariffs, blah blah blah” and said literally he’s talking out of both sides of his mouth.
  11. Ron Paul- chairman of the Fed! Cue the it’s happening bunker meme.
  12. That’s the thing- he’s actually set the predicate to make a bunch of good deals with everyone not named China, which we should actively fuck with and try to reshore a bunch of national security type shit (meds, rare earths etc) to make us less dependent on them. It should be “open for business bring us your best offer” and then boom boom boom, trade deal after trade deal. It would take about 30 minutes for the market to basically recover everything and for the 10 year to get back in the right direction. But, it’s actually possible that he does want tariffs and not freer/fairer trade and this is a feature not a bug, in which case who the fuck knows where the bottom is? He’s talking out of both sides of his mouth and the market is completely unable to figure out what the end game is here, because who can actually know? fascinating shit. If you are up 100k cash it all now and don’t sweat what you could have won think about being so right and losing it all because you got greedy.
  13. He (Powell) seemed to indicate that was on the table Friday. Without actually saying it but that was my read.
  14. Nope. Nothing positive to say beyond- of this all gets wrapped up one way or another we should snap right back. But nobody knows what the end game is so who knows?
  15. Interest rates have gone up about 5/8 of a point in the last 72 hours. Not great.
  16. I’ve never liked him. I was against the hiring from the word go. Nothing I saw last year changed my mind. He’s garbage. At least last year he was good with the lineup but this year he’s fucking with Cam and getting in his head and playing dipshit Dubon in the Of for no good reason.
  17. He really is a dumbass motherufcker.
  18. 2 blue star plays to start the day today in the OF. Gonna be a good one fellas.
  19. We can. It’s generally u like the Astros as they are more apt to go 6 man than 4 (even with time off) but it’s early enough maybe?
  20. Down 60 bips today. Down 175 bips since Friday at noon! I was afraid that we were going to have more than 3 or 4 hours to get deals in and locked when the market go advantageous for refinance people. Nope, didn't need to worry. Was making my calls all that morning and then lost 1/2 a point in interest rate over the next 2 days. This is so much fun. I just pinch myself every day that I get to get up and keep rolling the same boulder up the same hill only to see it go backwards when we get near the top (inflection point) in the market. Fun stuff. @UTPhil2006 you go ahead and take a bath with a toaster @LCHornyou go ahead and slit your writs. I will do a swan dive off the skybridge in front of an 18 wheeler when I'm up at UWM next month. That seems like a fun suicide pact, right? On a serious note, it's discouraging to have stuff snatched away from you at the last minute, but whatever. Put on pants and do it all over again tomorrow I guess.
  21. Damn. Was hoping it was Blubaugh.
  22. We talk an uneven start to the season and then I tell Andrew about the worst one shinning moment of my lifetime.
  23. I’m excited to see blubaugh.
×
×
  • Create New...