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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Wulaw Horn
    Exactly. And, you don’t need to have rates be perfect for a year or forever. You just need a trading range and dip into that area at a time you are paying attention (and I always pay attention for them). Best day to buy is always yesterday. Next best day is today. Once you are locked into a rate your life can only improve it can never get worse. It’s a fundamental lesson that buyers have a hard time internalizing because they are seldom making these kind of decisions.
  2. Wulaw Horn
    Here is my confidence interval for the next 4 year presidential term. I will put somebody in a rate that starts with a 3 (right buyer, right loan etc- not run of the mill dude)- 40% I will put somebody in a rate that starts with a 4 (right buyer, right loan etc)- 90% I will put somebody in a rate that starts with a 5 (same caveat)- 99% I will have less than 10% of my buyers pay a handle that starts with a 7 for more than 6 months (90%)- note- we do 1 year buy down as I mentioned from the national average- so my dudes that are at 7.1 or 7.3 on a jumbo are bought down to 6.1 or 6.3 and they exit within that year or shortly thereafter. I think the range for the national average during this presidential term will trade between 4.3 and 7.3. 2025 I think the trading range for the national average will be 5.6-7.1. 2026 I think it will be 4.75-6.25. My crystal ball gets a little foggier after that.
  3. Wulaw Horn
    I quoted you because that was the article and many more speaking about the MANY people dooming in the media. Wasn’t meant to be directed at you in particular. We disagree a bit but your perspective is in no way unreasonable. Wasn’t meant as a shot at you. I don’t believe it’s 100%- I’ve said before that you could be right but it would require a fundamental change and would be against what’s historically happened. Paradigms shitty- I just typically bet against.
  4. Wulaw Horn
    We had 4 years of policy. The economy grew basically without inflation. This dooming is absurd. If government waste is truly cut it won’t be recessionary, it will be a net benefit. The government inefficiency and spending is a brake on the economy. We are about to win win win.
  5. Wulaw Horn
    That's all well and good until it isn't and a day of reckoning comes. I guess those pricks don't care as they are in and out on the trade. Never mind that rates are probably artificially at least a point too high in the mortgage market- Fed Policy has been overly restrictive for 18 months at this point in time (maybe only 12 months) b/c these garbage people are consistently lying about the numbers and there is no punishment mechanism for them. The Soviets used to be able to "rely" on the government reports to tell them what the numbers were until it collapsed in upon itself. Like- honesty and transparency is really important. We have none of that right now. Either that or rank incompetence. But at this point it seems hard to believe rank incompetence is the thing- but even if so it doesn't make any functional difference. I think that's the right answer to my question by the way- even if I don't like it.
  6. Wulaw Horn
    QCEW report came out (the one that made news in July showing labor department had overstated jobs by 800k+ Well, in the last report it shows that the previous 12 month jobs were overstated by 1.26M. So, some of that ecompassess the 800k we already knew about, but the problem was even bigger and getting greater. Total job creation in the last 12 months was actually 1.24M (reported as 2.5). 2.5 isn't great but it's fine- 100k job creation a month is complete and utter trash. But no, the next time you read the headline "jobs smash market expectations" the bond market will froth away as if those numbers actually mean anything. They don't. How this isn't a major scandal and how the market remains so credulous of this shit I cannot fathom.
  7. Wulaw Horn
    So sorry. Did all the scoreboards and thought I posted the prediction thread. Bad Wulaw. Texas 42 kentucky 3 prop bet (their offense sucks and ours struggled)- total combined yards from scrimmage 614
  8. Wulaw Horn
    Shit. Thought I posted it.
  9. Wulaw Horn
    Sure. 2021 wasn’t real or market based though. The target of what the best we could sort of hope for in a non artificial way is probably late fall of 2019 before Covid disrupted everything. My good borrowers were doing 3.75% or so then.
  10. Wulaw Horn
    It’s not great man. It will get better. It was a full point lower 60 days ago.
  11. Wulaw Horn
    7.125 bought down a point (by me) for a year with a cost paid refinance at the end is what most of my well qualified buyers are doing.
  12. Wulaw Horn
    Disagree. Might eat as many as Stoops.
  13. Wulaw Horn
    I love the fact that I don’t talk about that fuckwit almost ever but you understand my loathing for him. Thank you for getting me.
  14. Wulaw Horn
    Yes. TBD at end of the year.
  15. Wulaw Horn
    @Gut Wagonwith 3 of the 20 possible wins so far. @Ficowith 2 wins. I think those are the only guys with more than 1. After aggy (or SEC title game if we make it) we will figure out something cool to do for the winners that's general consensus.
  16. Wulaw Horn
    Week 10- Texas at Arkansas Game Winner- @Gut Wagongets on the board again. He nailed the 10 point spread and had it lower scoring than most at 26-16 Props- @satyanashwho went full on pessimist and still overstated by 50%. Prop was total yards from scrimmage for Texas WR. We had an oof of 94- his chicken little prediction was 165, the lowest on the thread by 2.
  17. Wulaw Horn
    Week 9- Florida at Texas Game Winner- @TexArcherwho came within 1 of the spread and missed each teams by a small amount- 45-14 I believe for a pretty accurate summation of the asswhooping Prop Winner- @Gut Wagonwho had Florida with 318 yards (they finished with 329).
  18. Wulaw Horn
    Week 8- Texas at Vanderbilt Game Winner- @bangkoknailed the exact score correctly at 27-24 Texas Prop Winner- @BigOrange1nailed it with exactly 288 passing yards for Quinn
  19. Wulaw Horn
    @bangkoknailed it exactly. @BigOrange1nailed it exactly with 288
  20. Wulaw Horn
    Week 7- Georgia at Texas Game Winner- @Gut Wagon who was 1 of 3 to pick Georgia to win- booooo this man Prop Winner- @Mr. Drummondpicked Georgia to get 285 yards of total offense. The man knew the D was going to do it's job- too bad the offense shit the bed.
  21. Wulaw Horn
    Week 6- Texas V OU- Game Winner- @Rudy Rutabagawith the win- 14 points off the actual score Prop Bet Winner- @TheAuditorwho basically had both teams rushing yards dead balls on correct (missed by 1 total yard for each team.
  22. Wulaw Horn
    The only ones to have 300 in the yardage for Florida. @Gut Wagonwith the win....
  23. Wulaw Horn
    @TexArcherwins with 9. Missed the spread by 1 and missed one by 3 and 1 by 4- good work man!
  24. Wulaw Horn
    Lot of good ones- these all nailed the spread (or came within 1 point) or nailed Texas score or otherwise were close...
  25. Wulaw Horn
    The only ones with WR yards under 200. We clocked in at 94. Yikes. @satyanashgets the win on the prop bet, even though he should be eliminated for general purposes and predicting a loss.

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