The rates went up today because hourly wages went from 0.9% to 1.2% (expectation was 1.0%). That’s driving inflation which is driving rates higher today.
interestingly enough tax receipts are lower, consumer expectations are at a 2 year low right now and one real life number has jobs down 100k over the same time period BLS has them up 500k. So- there’s some disconnect between what is actually happening and being observed vs what’s being reported which relies heavily on modeling.
inflation is actually the opposite right now- the government number is coming in significantly higher than what’s being seen by the dudes looking at 10M factors v 780k factors. Thats to say that maybe the government is simply getting it wrong and not intentionally.
none of this is original thoughts be me, passing along what the market tea leaf reader I pay says. Is he right? Dunno. It sounds plausible.
rates will improve Wednesday if fed slows down balance sheet reduction and starts buying treasuries and MBS. The thought is that will definitely happen, but when? Habib seems to think that could be at tomorrows Fed meeting announcement.