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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. What can you top out at- like $1,000? That feels like a small emotional hedge (and it’s starting to look potentially like a good bet)
  2. Dude. No cuts incoming in summer. Maybe October. Maybe. But doubt it.
  3. Still not worried. But Hader man, he should get it together. We talk pitching, Loperfido and schedule.
  4. No, probably not. But he’s got some good swing and miss to him and you can see it. he’s had a bit of a struggle every time he’s jumped a level.
  5. Well, we didn’t need to play shit defense behind the kid. not against this lineup.
  6. No sweat seems weird to me.
  7. It’s sort of funny in an absurdist kind of way. id like a range between 4 and 6 throughout the course of a year or two (or bussiness cycle). That seems healthy.
  8. The update this morning was grim down 53 bips. Star pattern has broken. all support levels are broken. No rate cuts coming until maybe September at the earliest. look out below!
  9. That was their 11th round draft pick. That means they like him. Those are the guys they think are first and second round talent that are tough signs.
  10. Down 40 in the mbs market to start the day. Yeeeeee Haaaaaaaaaw. retail sales came in hot. Or maybe it’s the shooting war between Iran and Israel.
  11. Abreu misses maldy. Maldy made him look good. Maldy’s slashing 069/100/103 Dusty baker should be horsewhipped for the shit he subjected us to last year.
  12. Yes- you cannot survive in the bigs with a 35% k rate. He needs to get that down to like 25-28% to be effective at all. He’s not got crazy power or plate discipline for a big league dude. hopefully soon. Like June 1st or July 1st we start to see that.
  13. We are 5-11. That sucks. to win 90 games (which is a guarantee for playoffs and probably will win the division) we have to win at a 58% clip. Thats a 94 win team which was our Vegas o/u. Nothing is fucked. Get some guys healthy in the rotation and the back end of the bullpen already looks like it’s settled down and we are who we thought we were. Might want to split the next 4 against the Braves and rangers.
  14. All those things could happen, sure, and a recession will definitely drive down interest rates and values both (at least almost always that’s what happens) which should make housing more important. a couple things to note regarding value as it pertains to refinance: 1) the houses with the least equity are Va and FHA loans, and refinance in those properties don’t require appraisals, merely paying on time 6 months in a row qualifies you for an appraisal-less Refiance 2) Conventional homes require merely to see 5% equity- starting point on the vast majority of homes is much higher than that 3) the best comp for a house generally is the purchase price of that house- it’s likely as you mentioned appraiser will err on the side of the borrower 4) the last time this became a systematic problem post 2008 market crash the government rolled out a program to allow this to happen- I’d expect similar here and it makes sense- if the original loan is backed by Fannie/Freddy no reason not to make a new easier to pay loan also so backed- it’s smarter than letting it default recessions mean unemployment rate around 10 typically, right? So 2X as many people unemployed as currently I would submit that as minorities and poor are disproportionately hit by recessions, and least likely to own homes it’s unlikely that this would create a large group of homeowners wanting to refinance that cannot- especially in light of point 1 made above- but we shall see A recession not caused by housing is generally good for housing in the above sense
  15. We are 3-1 when I get to watch on TV. Was out of town for the Yankee sweep and the Royals sweep. I’m going out of town Tue-Thursday- prepare your bets accordingly.
  16. Cy Blanco got the ball today. All is well with the world. First day of the rest of our lives.
  17. Insert joke about your mom. Fill it in however is funniest for you.
  18. Some people suck. 1/8 of a point is a lousy jump off point man. I don’t blame anyone over 1/4. What sucks is they probably shopped your deal over to them and told them beat by 1/8 and we are good. Which/ cool- of you know you are going the lowest route go the lowest route and get with them from the word go, don’t go get everything sorted with you and get white glove service and then fuck you in the ass over a couple bucks. I mean, I’m sure there’s people on here that will consider what they did to be perfectly right and justifiable, but it’s a really shitty way to live and for your sake I hope they get fake cancer and die.
  19. I"m not actually going for the reverse jinx. I'm just trying to condition myself to this mindset and not worry about rate at all making my life easier b/c the hope is killing me. Kill all hope and just deal with the suck and figure it will put more people out of business, get more market share and create a bigger refinance boom and more robust market when things finally break loose. Have to embrace environment instead of pining for a different one. Trying to find reason for optimism or a good step forward.
  20. This is going to be so funny when we get a 50 basis hike in July. I'm here for it baby. I'm tired of waiting expectantly- just lean into the suck. The ride will be that much more glorious on the way back down. Yeeeee haaaaaw.
  21. Bregs starts like shit every year and ends up a 4 WAR player. Same as it ever was.
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