This jobs report was actually shit with a nonsensical headline number.
275k in jobs- 241k which came from the birth death model which is pure guesswork based upon small business. ADP- who has the actual numbers- had small business with only a 20k gain.
household survey showed 475k lost jobs, with 250k leaving workforce which is why unemployment ticked up.
more revisions (15k) downward from previous 2 months- which was a miss. Labor participation still well short of 63% which is the benchmark of a good labor market.
Again- all the job losses in household survey were full time while gains were almost entirely part time.
Do with that whatever you want.
Allegedly rate cuts will happen at 4.1 or 4.2 on unemployment- since we won’t get any out of inflation which keeps stubbornly staying higher than desired.
GDP estimates are 1.7 for Q2 with 2.7 inflation so for like the 8th or 10th quarter in a row we will see real wages and economy get worse in purchasing terms- ever since inflation went parabolic starting in 2022.
mortgage apps down again- rates up from this time last year by 3/8 of a point after todays market got crunched- more good times in housing sector.
weak report could have gotten us on a real good track- instead the headline number going to kick off another month of trading sideways.
I think @Neonmoonis right and this won’t be catastrophic once it all gets digested- but for now it’s another day of BOHICA in the mortgage world.