Wulaw Horn

Does he own a glove?

It’s sort of funny in an absurdist kind of way. id like a range between 4 and 6 throughout the course of a year or two (or bussiness cycle). That seems healthy.

The update this morning was grim down 53 bips. Star pattern has broken. all support levels are broken. No rate cuts coming until maybe September at the earliest. look out below!

That was their 11th round draft pick. That means they like him. Those are the guys they think are first and second round talent that are tough signs.

Down 40 in the mbs market to start the day. Yeeeeee Haaaaaaaaaw. retail sales came in hot. Or maybe it’s the shooting war between Iran and Israel.

Abreu misses maldy. Maldy made him look good. Maldy’s slashing 069/100/103 Dusty baker should be horsewhipped for the shit he subjected us to last year.

Yes- you cannot survive in the bigs with a 35% k rate. He needs to get that down to like 25-28% to be effective at all. He’s not got crazy power or plate discipline for a big league dude. hopefully soon. Like June 1st or July 1st we start to see that.

We are 5-11. That sucks. to win 90 games (which is a guarantee for playoffs and probably will win the division) we have to win at a 58% clip. Thats a 94 win team which was our Vegas o/u. Nothing is fucked. Get some guys healthy in the rotation and the back end of the bullpen already looks like it’s settled down and we are who we thought we were. Might want to split the next 4 against the Braves and rangers.

All those things could happen, sure, and a recession will definitely drive down interest rates and values both (at least almost always that’s what happens) which should make housing more important. a couple things to note regarding value as it pertains to refinance: 1) the houses with the least equity are Va and FHA loans, and refinance in those properties don’t require appraisals, merely paying on time 6 months in a row qualifies you for an appraisal-less Refiance 2) Conventional homes require merely to see 5% equity- starting point on the vast majority of homes is much higher than that 3) the best comp for a house generally is the purchase price of that house- it’s likely as you mentioned appraiser will err on the side of the borrower 4) the last time this became a systematic problem post 2008 market crash the government rolled out a program to allow this to happen- I’d expect similar here and it makes sense- if the original loan is backed by Fannie/Freddy no reason not to make a new easier to pay loan also so backed- it’s smarter than letting it default recessions mean unemployment rate around 10 typically, right? So 2X as many people unemployed as currently I would submit that as minorities and poor are disproportionately hit by recessions, and least likely to own homes it’s unlikely that this would create a large group of homeowners wanting to refinance that cannot- especially in light of point 1 made above- but we shall see A recession not caused by housing is generally good for housing in the above sense

We are 3-1 when I get to watch on TV. Was out of town for the Yankee sweep and the Royals sweep. I’m going out of town Tue-Thursday- prepare your bets accordingly.

See. Now go win again tomorrow.

Cy Blanco got the ball today. All is well with the world. First day of the rest of our lives.

Insert joke about your mom. Fill it in however is funniest for you.

Some people suck. 1/8 of a point is a lousy jump off point man. I don’t blame anyone over 1/4. What sucks is they probably shopped your deal over to them and told them beat by 1/8 and we are good. Which/ cool- of you know you are going the lowest route go the lowest route and get with them from the word go, don’t go get everything sorted with you and get white glove service and then fuck you in the ass over a couple bucks. I mean, I’m sure there’s people on here that will consider what they did to be perfectly right and justifiable, but it’s a really shitty way to live and for your sake I hope they get fake cancer and die.

I"m not actually going for the reverse jinx. I'm just trying to condition myself to this mindset and not worry about rate at all making my life easier b/c the hope is killing me. Kill all hope and just deal with the suck and figure it will put more people out of business, get more market share and create a bigger refinance boom and more robust market when things finally break loose. Have to embrace environment instead of pining for a different one. Trying to find reason for optimism or a good step forward.

That was me!

This is going to be so funny when we get a 50 basis hike in July. I'm here for it baby. I'm tired of waiting expectantly- just lean into the suck. The ride will be that much more glorious on the way back down. Yeeeee haaaaaw.

Bregs starts like shit every year and ends up a 4 WAR player. Same as it ever was.

Look at the lineup. They are performing 20% better than average and that’s what you’d expect for the year/ that’s really good. The sequencing will come. we’ve got a bunch of guys that we know are good on the IL right now that should come back, and are getting good stuff from some guys that are surprising. It will be a really good staff. I’m not worried about what everyone though would be the best back end of the pen in baseball 2 weeks ago. it’s fine. This year. I’m nervous in the intermediate to long term because no Luhnow.

Burn baby burn. Started the day up 14! Now down 10 with a reprice for the worse. Let’s see how shitty we can get. Bring back 8 like we saw in October for a bit.

Weather delay and late start. Will be a shitshow there. also- yall are being silly. This is a good team w good team that has things going against them right now. we will be fine.

Also when they sell they have appreciation from their purchase and plenty for downpayment, obviously.

Work with a couple agents at the 1.5-2M price point occasionally. 50+ percent of their deals are cash. Anecdotal, but yeah/ less rate sensitive the higher you get.

For sure. Had 2 that weren’t locked and just too exposed. the bad news is I was going to roll my entire October pipeline (5 loans but still) into a refinance after the 6 payments had been made. This 1/4 point loss doesn’t help that. Not all the doors I’ve been knocking on. It’s not really about the lousy day it’s about putting a nail in the idea of a Refiance boom this summer/fall. Looking like winter at earliest. that means a bigger boom later with less originators around to share it, the philosophical side of me says, but most of me is like fuck that shit- let’s do this now.

78 points down as I type. auction graded a D- !