The first tip off on jobs should have been that they’ve revised lower eleventy billion of the last eleventy billion reports.
According to Habib the CPI guys are literally just guessing.
I do. I’m aware of how expensive the trip to the grocery store is. I’m telling you what the official government CPI numbers re and they have. Even incredibly tame for the last two reports as experts have said it would be the opposite.
To the surprise of nobody I wrote a piece on Forrest Whitley that I think is pretty good. Check it out and subscribe.
https://medium.com/@breathingorangefire_71114/forrest-whitley-lost-cause-or-case-of-one-mans-trash-is-another-mans-treasure-6c2fcff82883
Inflation came in very tame- below expectations. Tariffs were supposed to be a huge tax on consumers and yet it’s not showing up in any of the data as of yet, though predicted to for a couple months now (still think they are dumb- again/ but the experts are taking another L so far here)
Jobs overperformed so that didn’t help the interest rate market last week, but stop me if you’ve heard this before they revised prior two months down 90k, the market shrugs and sells off so we get to ride the roller coaster again.
When I was out in LA for a mortgage junket the head of the DC branch said they are working on some banking deregulation as it relates to banks owning 10 year treasuries that should be really good for the 10 year market/ disagreements as to whether it will be more like 40 bips or more like 70 bips. After I heard that in LA Habib started talking about that a week or so ago.
Finally, spread between mortgage rates and 10 year topped out at 3 or so last year. It’s at 2.5 more or less right now. Historically that number is 2. As some of the volatility is sucked out of the market that number should continue to tighten to historical norms around 2.
I know everyone here likes to talk about omg the sky is falling because that’s fun, but there are some green shoots for the industry right now and if this stuff all comes to pass we could be looking at 5.5-6 depending upon how much the spread tightens up and how much the deregulation helps.
That’s the optimist case for housing/interest rates.
I’m fully prepared now for a negative run and everyone cussing me and saying it’s all my fault.
Danny Davito fucked my dad’s wife (his first one- not my mom) while he was married to her. Old man claimed she was the hottest woman in every room, so that’s more or less definitive proof celebrity makes up for everything.
That’s all I’ve got for famous people.
I think it’s dumb that Ullola isn’t up, but whatever. I’d have him and blue balls both over Gordon and Gusto, but yeah- Walter should probably stay in the rotation and gusto go back to the pen. And Gordon I hope mercifully ends soon but he will probably get 20 starts this year bc God hates good pitchers and wants all their arm ligaments
So- Missouri was better than aggy, right? They went 3-0 against them.
2022 astros won 107 games and the World Series. Baltimore won 55 games. They were 6-1 against the Astros. Clearly they were better.
Which is what I said- it’s baseball. You have to do it on the field but anything can happen.
https://medium.com/@breathingorangefire_71114/why-the-2025-astros-are-better-than-the-2024-astros-384fcd19e326
5 days ago we posted this on my blog (I didn’t write it).
How about Bo Porter bad? The moron that didn’t even know the rule book? Yeah- that’s the kind of stupid I think Joe is. I hated 1 M Jimy but that was personality thing- not that he was an idiot.
he’s basically Dusty Baker without the cool stories and tooothpicks.