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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. You got any tickets like Tuscaloosa? I’m on the fence- was going to take my 9 year old then thought- fuck that shit- that will be way too much money and she can go to the ULM game basically for free and we will go to the indoor water park and skip school on Friday. Thinking of making this a game time decision but yall doing something like this makes it more likely.
  2. I’ve given up on Whitley ever being a part of this organization. They’d rather dumpster dive for shitheads that Yankees fans throw parades for when leaving than just call him up and give him a reasonable shot. Whatever.
  3. If it’s not a gimmick and the lender is going to pay all the title fees, appraisal fees, processing fees such that it doesn’t cost you any money just do it now- now is always the best time to get free money, you can never go broke taking a profit, and you can go back to the well and do it again in 6 months or a year or whatever. Don’t try to time the market, just do it every time it makes sense and doesn’t cost you any money.
  4. Too High: Georgia Too low: Texas
  5. Just got a reprice for the worse. Apparently manufacturing wasn't the clusterfuck people were expecting. Some sort of gossip going around that they were going to do a rate cut in between meetings that got squashed by that (I don't think they were ever doing the intermeeting rate cut). It's going lower though, I think the path is beyond obvious from here....Just a matter of when. I put some people in on a rate that started with a 5 the other day- which was nice. What- 2.5 or 3 months ago it was 7?
  6. For fucks sake- mbs down 4 bips so far this morning (up means rates getting lower with mbs, down means rates getting higher with mbs). It usually means 10 year going down means mbs going up and rates going down- but not always. 10 points in the 10 year should be something g like mbs going up 50-75 points and rates shooting down .15-.20. Not so far today.
  7. Yes. The least difficult cut in the history of MLb I would call that.
  8. Holy shit apparently carnage in the Asian stock markets overnight and the financial world is on fire. Dow is getting crushed in pre trades this morning. 10 year treasury currently at 3.71. MBs aren’t trading yet. It was 4.26 last week around this time. Rates gonna get low low low low (comparatively) like shorty in the club.
  9. So, today I ran the chain saw all day trying to clean up the yard. Made a big brush pile on the driveway (it’s gravel- we live on 6 acres). I was pouring gas all over said brush file and my 11 year old went and lit the pile on fire as o was still pouring on it. Whoosh. Huge flare up. My hat started burning. I have no hair on my left arm and have a pretty decent heat rash working. The gas can in my right hand caught fire. My entire right leg (was wearing jeans) was burning. I say all that to say this- that 0-2 pitch by Blanco made me more angry than anything else that happened to me today.
  10. I mean the trade. He’s an Astro for better or for worse. Hope it works out.
  11. As to what your responded to I said he’s not some sort of work horse. For his career he’s averaged less than 5 innings per start (or dead bang on it- it’s less than 5 and 1/3 if you take his total innings divided by starts but he’s got like 20 appearances where he racked up innings that weren’t starts) this year he’s averaging less than 5 and 1/3 per start, right on his career average. Is there anything at all in anything I’ve said that isn’t 100% factually accurate? I didn’t have any opinion or supposition in my posts, literally flat out stated facts. I also posted that after 4 innings and acknowledged the swing and miss was cool. He hadn’t struck out 8 in a row yet, I think it was at 4 or 5. so, by all means please tell me in any way shape or form how what I said is inaccurate in any way. in summary: I want us to win, I hope he’s awesome. For his career he’s been below average in era and FIP, for this year he’s been below average in era and above average in FIP, he’s not an innings eater but he does answer the bell every 5th day which we clearly need. we gave up a bunch of potential value for him, it was graded as the worst overpay of the deadline, it’s not something smart organizations do, it could work out and I hope it does. I will never say anything about Kikichi again.
  12. It’s great. Set a franchise record. He’s also a 33 year old with a career era of 4.72, a season era of 4.75, an era plus that’s 12% worse then league average for his career, a career FIP of 4.64. I mean, we can go on and on and maybe the Astros at 33 years old can unlock something different in him that’s never been there over the entirety of his career with multiple different organizations, and I am certainly rooting for that to happen and him pitch us to a World Series title, but there is nothing about his performance, this year or in his career, that indicates he’s an above average pitcher or worth anything close to what we sent out to get him. nothing would make me happier than the astros being right and changing the trajectory of his career. I hated them letting Correa go. I said- he’s a proven post season performer. Peña is likely to be mid with the bat. Those guys typically get chewed up in the playoffs. Then, he has a mid rookie season with the bat. And second season. And third season so far. he’s a career 99 ops+ guy (definition of mid with the bat- though when you play a premier defensive position like SS or catcher or Cf and are mid with the bat and really good with the glove that makes you a good overall player) and he sucked shit through a straw in the playoffs with the bat on the 2023 playoffs. But, in 2022 he caught lightning in a bottle, won the ALCS and WS mvp (and got big hits in the divisional series) and there’s a good chance that if we’d have signed Correa and his career 124 ops+ as opposed to Pena’s 99 ops+ we’d have won one World Series instead of 2. Baseball is a weird game. Literally anything can happen over a small sample size. I hope kikuchi shoves and we end up having a parade.
  13. He doesn’t really even do that. He throws 100 pitches every time out. Sometimes that’s 7 and sometimes that’s 4.
  14. So the is is kind of the kikuchi experience right? Good stuff. Lots of swing and miss. Lots of K’s. And oh look- a 4.5 era because he leaves meatballs right over the middle.
  15. Agreed on Florida but I said should not would. The sooner the 9-3 or 8-4 bandaid is ripped off the better for us imo.
  16. Has he won like 5 or 6 Olympic and world gold medals and been the best player on his team every time?
  17. Those losses would all be to playoff teams (except maybe LSU- but that will be very borderline). Their wins would be Miami, Texas A&M UCF, Tennessee, Kentucky and Old Miss. I will bet at the end of the year very very very few teams will have all losses be to playoff teams and also have 6 wins over P4 teams. That's a fucking awesome resume whether or not dumb dumbs can get past 8-4 bro. If they get pantsed in all 4 losses maybe not- but if they look half way competitive they ought to be in. BTW- they aren't going 8-4 because they aren't that good and that schedule is insane. but if they did they would be worthy.
  18. Huge miss on jobs report. Only 124k. Stop me if you r heard this before but prior months were both revised down. MBs up 42 points already. About 200 points in the last 10 days. And here we go! Rates definitely coming down… 10 year down to 3.82 for @UTPhil2006
  19. Dusty wanted Jake (and Chas) to fail. He loved Miles straw. Click had to pull off an astros money ball deal and trade him because the damn 🦖 wouldn’t listen to reason. so, Jake’s first 3 AB’s were against closers with two outs in the 9th. What a petty dipshit Dusty was.
  20. I don’t think they are going to but if Florida goes 8-4 they absolutely should be in the playoffs.
  21. Yeah- and not just that but didn’t he take a pretty shitty 2010 team at the worlds that nobody thought much of and single handedly destroy everyone he played against? I’m getting old but that seems like it happened, right?
  22. KD is the greatest player in the history of Fiba/the Olympics right? Like probably not particularly close? If hes still alive and upright he needs to play in 28 back on home soil. It would be an injustice to what he’s meant to team USA if he wasn’t on that squad.
  23. Nah. There’s no upside for anyone to play them. They aren’t great or anything but it’s no upside if you win and it’s a lose able game with downside. I’m not saying that what you said doesn’t happen, I’m saying nobody gives a shit about that in a scheduling context.
  24. We talked on our podcast and crunched some numbers about a month ago and it’s uncanny- like every time they give up runs we lose- and that’s just not normal. You’d probably expect to win about 40 or 50% if the games your leverage guy gives up a run and we were running like 15% or something. lots of times a set up man comes in with a 2 run lead, gives up 1, no big deal. Or they tie it in the top and we go ahead in the bottom. Nope. part of it has been when they give up runs many times it’s multiple. If your guy is going to have a 4.5 era you want him to give up a run every other game and that’s a lot more likely to win than 8 perfect, 3 runs and 2 runs in 10 games.
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