Everything posted by Wulaw Horn
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
So, If we don't cancel OSU and Michigan we are both fucking stupid and fucking pussies. You can't have Sark saying that shit and then not do it. I still say that if UVA beats Duke in the ugliest game imaginable (meaning an ACC team will have to get in) and Ohio State and Georgia and Tech win big there can be a rethink happen next Sunday. We certainly shouldn't stop the pressure campaign. We should probably publicly cancel the Domers series tomorrow and then privately tell ESPN that if we end up behind Miami we absolutley will cancel the OSU and Michigan games Monday afternoon.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Where did you get this? I've been on google every day since Sunday busting my ass trying to find this weeks ratings. Holy fucking shit if Texas v Aggy outdrew OSU v Michigan and the Iron Bowl that's fucking amazing and I'm sort of shocked. I figured it would do a big number but that's 4M more than last year.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Oh I absolutely believe it’s way more likely than not it would be Bama. I’m just saying it has to be a discussion and depending upon outcomes it’s possible we could jump them. we will jump byu if they lose I’d almost guarantee.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Look, in reality I’m a one woman man. I’ve only had sex with my wives. Consecutive wives, not concurrent- No BYU. If I was predisposed to have sex outside a relationship then a million times out of 100 I would fuck Roseanne and Rosy O’fat if it meant I got to plow my way through the top 5 prettiest women on the planet. Like, that’s not actually a thing anyone on here would actually say no to, is it?
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Oh I’m aware of all that. What I’m saying is that I want the game to look in Person and on TV even lower quality than the paper would have it looking. Like 3-2 VA as a final where the ACC has to have a team in and America is pissed that they have said team and demanding they not have 2 from that conference in.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
2 years ago Florida state won and went to 13-0 and fell from 3 to 6. It’s not the most likely result but it could happen depending upon how it all shakes out.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
The thing about Miami being 12 and us 13 is that we can wage a smear campaign against Miami all season. The mouse doesn’t give a shit about the ACC and Miami can’t draw flies to a pile of shit as far as game day crowd. We can wreck them behind the scenes if need be.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Root for a retard fight in the ACC that makes Miami look guilty by association.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
They can’t have it Bama 10, BYU 11, Texas 12 and not have a discussion about what happens if bama and byu both get wrecked. It’s not possible.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
If we are 12 on Tuesday I’m super excited. That means there is a real discussion that could happen inside that room if you are saying we end up at 12 because we are 13 and jump byu then I’m pissed.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
It seems incredibly hard for me to believe that Disney doesn’t have the biggest vote. I also concede it’s possible they have no say. It’s really interesting.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Maybe. I’d like for that to be the case. Maybe not. But it went from off the board to on the board. Utah not on the board. candy +4000. Miami +750. So- that tells me if they did get word that the committee has it 10- bama 11- byu 12-Miami 13-Texas 14- Vandy 15-Utah. or no information and they are guessing like we are.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
So, 4%. NyT had it at 5%. think of it like this though- for it to be 4 or 5% chance of happening we need like 3 or 4 game outcomes to go our way. Figure that figure it’s required for tech (80%) Georgia (65%) and Ohio state a little bit (65%) to win. There’s only a 33% chance or so of all that happening. So, if all those games break our way that would mean the oddsmakers believe we have like a 1/5 or 1/4 chance of being named. Also- yesterday Fan Duel didn’t have us on the board and now they do so the rethink it all out campaign is working.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
And they beat Michigan who sort of sucks but that was a manly scheduling up game for them.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
I will say this- the committee did have a shit job this year as the year you absolutely HAVE to put 9-3 Texas in bc otherwise who would ever play a tough OOC game in their life? Having 7 SEC teams with 2 losses ended up being a real motherfucker. I’m sure they have rather made their point with 9-3 Texas over 11-2 BYU with nobody on the OOC schedule than have to fuck with this shit. just bounce Oklahoma. Ok reflection they suck- they cheated against Auburn in an institutionally planned way not a block in the back that got missed kind of way, and nobody cares about them in the SEC or on TV. Fuck it- done.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Who said he wasn’t? Go read what he wrote. It was Helo level dumb. It got called out and negged and he got mocked. Then my response to you wasn’t that he should be banned from doing it but if he wants to be that dumb he shouldn’t do it here. You have crowdsource for a reason. If he keeps posting that will happen.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
If they want to play a reasonable schedule being in a pretty poor conference they could make that happen. Go schedule two of Michigan, Ohio state, Penn state, USC, Oregon or a top 1/2 SEC team. Go look, instead, at who they chose to schedule.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Shit man. Go read a million posts I have on here where I debate or talk about things in good faith. I snap when there is abject unmitigated stupidity and do it more at horns than anyone else. You got the wrong dude here man.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
I wasn’t talking about you. I was talking about the Mormon fucking idiot on his way to being begged to oblivion for being fucking retarded. That was the point- they (byu guy) can advocate for whoever he wants but he doesn’t have to be fucking retarded on this board. We have enough regards of our own to keep in line that we don’t need to invite in the dumbest of other fan bases. You and I have had civil conversations the whole time. The byu clown can fuck his own face.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Sure. For being probabilistic about what we’re to happen if other outcomes were to happen around the country that then didn’t you are the biggest and most voluminous dipshit midwit on here.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Sure. They don’t need to be fucking retarded on our board while they do it.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
Holy shit you fucking retard. This is literally the dumbest thing I’ve seen posted all day.
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2025 CFB Polls/Rankings Thead
Dude- they don’t give fair odds in gambling. The house has a rake. And I have no idea how big or small it is during in game betting like that. Thus the question mark. I’m guessing if they are giving +138 they don’t think it’s a 42% chance but rather less than that. Do you think they’d give even odds if they thought it was 50/50? Absolutely not. That’s why when they price with a point spread it’s -110. The more you know. from chat gpt: Yep — you’re right on the instincts. Short answer: convert the +138 to an implied probability (≈ 42.02%) and then remember that number almost certainly overstates Texas’s “true” probability because futures markets carry an overround (vig) and extra margin for long-term liability. Here’s a clean way to think about it and a quick cheat-sheet you can use without the whole 24-team board. 1) Break-even implied probability +138 → Implied=100138+100=100238≈42.02%Implied=138+100100=238100≈42.02% That’s the percentage you’d need to be correct long-term to break even at +138. 2) Futures vig / overround — how to remove it The bookmaker’s overround (sum of implied probs − 100%) tells you how much juice is baked in. If you don’t have the full market, use a plausible overround estimate for futures. Futures markets typically carry substantially higheroverrounds than simple spread markets — commonly ~5% to 15%, sometimes even 15–25% on messy, auto-bid/auto-qualify markets. To estimate the fair probability, divide the implied probability by (1 + overround). Example formula: pfair≈pimplied1+overroundpfair≈1+overroundpimplied 3) Quick examples using +138 (implied 42.02%): If overround = 5% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.05 = 40.02% If overround = 10% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.10 = 38.20% If overround = 15% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.15 = 36.54% If overround = 20% → fair ≈ 42.02 / 1.20 = 35.02% So depending on how juicy the futures book is, Vegas’s actual internal estimate for Texas might be anywhere from ~35–40% (or even lower on a heavily-vigged market), not the raw 42%. 4) Why futures carry more juice Long liability horizon: bettors can hedge many ways; book wants protection. Thin markets: fewer bettors → larger margins to manage risk. Complexity (auto bids, tie-ins, auto-qualifying slots): more uncertainty, so bigger cuts. Public money bias: shops shade prices to reduce exposure on popular teams. 5) Practical next steps (if you want to quantify it): If you can paste a subset of the market (even the top 6–8 teams) I’ll sum implied probs and compute overround. Or I can pull current market consensus/aggregate odds and compute the true overround (I’d need to search the boards). If you just want a quick rule: assume ~10% overround on a complicated futures market and treat +138 as closer to ~38% true. You were right to distrust the raw 42% — treat that as the break-even number, not Vegas’s unbiased belief. Want me to pull some current market numbers and do the math on the whole playoff field?
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
You can absolutely believe it is what I said it is- a 5% outcome right now that becomes a real conversation if things break our way this weekend. Bet against it being a thing that happens but root line he’ll for Georgia, Ohio state and Tech to win by 50 and the ACC title game to be a flaming abortion that sets football back 50 years and shames the conference. If all that happened there’s just no logical reason for it not to be Texas. That doesn’t mean it will be Texas but there’s no logical reason for it not to be.
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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs
They were ahead of us last week so we have to jump them. I’m curious about the Disney part of the question you didn’t answer. From everyone. I think it’s majority vote but it wouldn’t surprise me if the answer was “none at all” either.