Wulaw Horn

You managed to find the ugliest pitcher of her on the internet, congrats?

Last 8 cycles goes well beyond 20 years man, in all kinds of environments.

This is like the people that ask for a ride to the airport. What? $25.00 a day is some sort of insurmountable thing? And failing that Uber stopped working? if you have enough money to get on an airplane you have enough money to not involve me in that nonsense. It blows my mind how many people think that asking for a ride to/from the airport is ok. As a society we should throw rocks at them until this custom stops.

We are in favor of 9 games. We are not absolute vaginas.

Hit expectations at increase of 0.2. Was expected. Replacement was very low (same for next 2 months). Should dip in January/february. MBS market up. Rates getting better today after a very lousy day yesterday.

Average of the last 8 times we’ve done this would say 2.5-2.75 or so. Mortgage rates typically are 2 points higher on the spread. That would be mid 4’s at the end of this cycle. Could this be radically different? Sure. I’m betting on lots of history against that.

Sure. The world could fundamentally change from how it is and has been from a long time. That’s absolutely on the table. That’s what it would take- a fundamental change.

That's not true. There weas stuff that made "economic conditions materially different than they were 60 days ago" JOLTS came in at 8.2 or 8.4M and kicked off the entire fucking doom cycle. Then BLS reported eleventy billion new jobs (mostly by 15-19 year olds after school had started- figure that out) and inflation came in literally at .5 and got rounded up instead of .4 and getting rounded down, and, combined with uncertainty that plays out every time we have an election a doom cycle started. Of course- then after that bullshittery got kicked off we saw- "just kidding- we overstated JOLTS BY 600 FUCKING THOUSAND JOBS" and a 12k jobs number but it didn't matter b/c the market had already doomed and gone the wrong fucking direction chasing ghosts. Also- huge stock market run up over election excitement afterwards, people covering shorts, bulls on the Trump trades etc sucked liquidity out of bond market (as happens when one runs super hot) and we haven't seen it flow back the other way. As far as the person asking about what rates will be tomorrow I couldn't tell you- I will bet that as of the end of the year nobody that started with me with a rate in the 7's from 2023 will end 2024 with a rate in the 7's, none of them will have paid a single fucking cent in discount points, and most of them won't have paid a dime in closing costs b/c we will have covered those in the bet that better days are ahead again and you won't be in your mortgage all that much longer. And I make that bet for the customer b/c I plan on (and have) talked to all of them in 6-12 months.

I'm not getting high on my own supply. I'm saying that this is not like we haven't had a real world fucking example, less than 4 years ago at this point, and what it looked like isn't even remotely close to what you are talking about in your alternative scenario. And, my response was a pushback to worst case dooming presented as a fait accomplis, from someone in an industry that doesn't know shit about fuck apparently telling us to get over something or other (or how @UTPhil2006 basically pushed back- and @LCHornlater). I've been in rooms with the wizards of smart predicting politics that just doesn't make fucking sense. I win money when I make political bets now (after getting my ass kicked on the bed bet in 2016 and diving deep enough to be able to sort through the prognostication bets). I'm cashing tickets left and right and have been for 4 cycles. You also don't need to have deep budget cuts to fix all this shit- private sector efficiency and just getting rid of the covid era excess can do lots of the same thing you need. If you think that Trump, Musk and all the other people with real world success are going to conspire to create a climate that doesn't work for business you can certainly make that bet. What I'm telling you is I will take call comers and cash that check as well. This bond market you are talking about is the same merry collection of dipshits that gets headfaked every time a bullshit job number comes out to a worse extent than my 9 year old daughter fake throwing the tennis ball to my golden retriever who then cackles over and over and over to herself. The numbers will get cleaned up on the jobs side. The rampant runaway expansion of the government will get curbed just a bit. Inflation in the real world will match the government number once shelter reality catches up with what's actually happening, and we will get back to a median rate around 4.5- which- as my point was is where it's essentially been for the last 25 years absent bullshit monetary policies related to COVID (which gave us artificially low rates on the way down and then caused the, also artificial, pop on the way back up). But sure- I was mocked and ridiculed basically every month for calling bullshit on everything related to the BLS until they said- whoops- can't find like 1,000,000 jobs. Must have misplaced them somewhere. Anyone see them? Nope. Again- make the bet- I have with my entire life.

We are inflationary for debt because almost the entirety of GDP growth has been on the back of government sector (and adjacent government sector of health care). we get back to an economy that actually sees private sector growth and it won’t be inflationary. We saw this in the first Trump Presidency.

I will absolutely take the opposite side of this bet. We were refinancing people into the mid 5’s 60 days ago. the only thing causing inflation right now to be beyond the 2% mark is shelter costs and that’s a fucked yo calculation that has nothing to do with real world events (look up how owners equivalent rent is calculated, realize that’s like 35% of the component and then have utter and complete contempt for government numbers). we’ve had 20 years of data saying 4.5 is more or less the median rate- it’s not resetting to 7 being considered a good rate.

Sam Pittman is both a cunt and a pussy, and Arkansas should fire him for being a jackass regardless of what the record is.

Horns 48 Hogs 13. prop bet/ total yards from scrimmage for WR room: 333

I mean- it's not going to happen. But damn it would be fun.

Oh my goodness- that's Ryan Presley's music.

We should sign Soto. He's like 26 years old. 12/600. 50 a year wouldn't break the budget with Yordan being cheap for the next 4 years. Tucker is gone in a year. Bregman is gone this year. We don't have to pay Yainer for 5 years and then he will be gone like everyone else. The point is we can afford him and he'd make us a lot better- and who gives a fuck if we suck 9 years from now. WE should also sign Walker (4/80) and kikuchi- (3/48) Lineup (166) Aluve- 27M Yordan- 17M Tucker- 20M Soto- 50M Walker- 20M Yainer- 1M Chas/LHH OF- 10M Pena- 5M Dezenzo- 1M Bench- 15M Starters (70M) Framber, Brown, Kikuchi, Arrighetti, Blanco, LMJ, Garcia, Javier Bullpen- Trade Presley (30M) Hader, Abreu, Scott, Whitley, who gives a fuck it's filler from the minors and left over starters That's a 266M payroll and the best team in baseball. Yeah- we are eating some money. That money is all basically gone after this year. we will have about 100M coming off the board in 2025 and 2026 that isn't even being used other than Tucker and Framber. Kikuchi replaces Framber and Soto replaces Tucker. But, if you want to do the Soto, Walker and Kikuchi signings and Trade Tucker and Framber and get some real pieces back for them to build for your future, along with getting the payroll down I'm down with that as well. Note- I don't expect any of this to happen- and certainly not all of it together- but I could see any of those 3 signings happen in an individual sense. I mean- Soto would be shocking but it would be cool.

Notre dame. Boise (or whoever is highest rated conference winner). 1 each of acc and big 12. That leaves 8 to between big 10 and sec. Ohio state, Penn State, Indiana and Oregon are all definitely in- right? We probably need to not fuck around and lose to aggy or piggy.

Strong/herman whatever - it was all mediocre terrible football and it sure as shit looked like we were in for more of the same after arky. so glad it’s going back the right way.

So, here we are. Back to the scene of either the worst or 2nd worst game of Sark’s tenure. I’ve only seen him get out coached twice in my opinion- Arkansas 21 and Georgia this year. This game, on September 11, 2021 was just such a humiliating data point as a program that showed how inept and far we had to go. Hudson Card and Casey Thompson were the QB’s. Shudder. The O line couldn’t block anyone. The skill position talent was ok but nothing to write home about. The defense was horrific. it was the kind of team and program one should expect after that chucklefuck Charlie Strong shot all over the place for 3 years. And then, we had our new guy supposed to fix it and he was crouched on his haunches on the sideline in a catatonic shock. Not good man, not good. Fastforward 3 years and 3 months and it’s night and day different. The QB controversy didn’t ever really get going this year- but if it had we’d be fighting over 2 guys probably going to go in the first round. The offensive line is the best it’s been in 20 years here. The skill position talent will play on Sundays. The defense is really good. Sark is stealing top 5 classes. We played in the last 4 team playoffs and look poised to play in the first 12 game set. with everything that happened around the conference we control our own destiny (as I said we would after the Georgia game). I hate losing any game. But, the goal isn’t to go undefeated (ask Saban if he wants give back any of the MANY titles of his that has a loss) but to win the conference and then the national title. Those goals are right there. Just have to win. Against a team we should. But that will be pumped to run our face in it again. We owe them. Let’s make them pay. Game Week stuff here.

Get a good LHH platoon partner for Chas and that's probably fine. If you do well at the IF corners.

Texas 44 florida 6 prop- yards gained for Florida: 196

Down 33 on MBS now. Sort of a shrug? We move more for a bad inflation number.

Went ahead and nailed that except a little light (probably) on Senate. 10 year up 15 in after hours trading. Not sure that makes sense on a rocket ship to the moon with cute coming and weak jobs report and inflation coming back down, but we will see how it shakes out. sort of nuts to me right now.

Wowzers.

Vegas. Back tomorrow to put up the prediction contest thread. Sorry- screwed this up.