Wulaw Horn

That's fair too, we were telling people that rates will likely be lower some time in the future throughout 2023, but it seems more plausibly right now sooner rather than later I suppose.

Yeah- that's my point on rates being up- people are now looking in a relative way to more recent times and saying "this sucks but it's ok" instead of 3 years ago and saying this is untenable. My read is the same as yours I think- cut in May instead of March unless the inflation numbers are great (narrators voice- they won't be). Down 8 on the day- down 30 from the highs this morning. Twas fun while it lasted (30 minutes).

Yeah- I'm in team Billy Wagner shouldn't be in the Hall because relief pitchers are still pitchers and it's a subset of guys not good enough to start games and thus 35% as valuable as a starter- but if you are going to have 8 closers in there then Billy Wagner damn sure should be the 9th. That ballot was pretty stacked. I could see him being 11th on a couple guys ballots. Or maybe they just fucked up checking the boxes. They are humans and baseball writers so on some level they are morons, mostly.

We were up 20 points and now flat on the day. That's 2 of the last 3 days we did that starting out with strong starts that deteriorated before lenders even got their pricing out for the day. Not sure what the boat anchor is that keeps taking good days and reeling them back in. CPI needs to hit at 3 or less and at least meet expectations. Habib's update was interesting this morning saying essentially that if Shelter were fixed it would be 6/10ths lower (time will fix it- it lags) and that 10M spot checks had inflation at 1.87 vs the 80k used in the report. That tells me again that it's likely that what we think is going to happen this year is going to actually happen- that we get to cut rates multiple times and things start to get better. Interestingly enough- rates 0.5% higher than this time last year, but apps up 11% People are starting to get used to it and demand is starting to pick up even without (relative) tailwinds from the mortgage side. I really think if you can find a house you like and you don't buy it today b/c you are waiting for rates you aren't going to like what you have to pay for it 9 months from now- to go back to @jimmyjazzquestion from earlier in the week about where the see saw ends. I think demand is going to win (at least around Texas).

So what I hear you saying is Texas gonna make a big offer to the AZ WR and spin him down to DT.

Eh- I mostly meant the column. His point was Wright is a guy good enough to be on the ballot longer than 1 year and I agree with him there.

Concussions man. Stark had an awesome ballot. He called Maher the modern day Ernie banks. Made some sense

Yep. The engineering on cars and their safety features are incredible. just a reminder- driving in the rain is dangerous.

Latest episode of breathing orange fire is up. We talk Collin McHugh and of course, Josh Haders return and what that means. Spotify

Brother did this after hydroplaning and slamming into the median today. Probably lucky to walk away without a scratch.

The backpack mockery was well deserved and awesome. The sledgehammer was so sublimely absurd and amazing. 10 out of 10

Yep. And the Tom Herman years weren’t really all that bad. I mean- it wasn’t great but 32-18 and ranked 3 of the 4 years and winning all 4 bowls including one vs Georgia was sort of minimum level performance of someone almost competent at UT. Basically about what Mack Brown did post 2010 losing season. Frustrating and not to standard but not the fiasco from Chucklefuck Strong.

At 320 with time to go Collins could be fine as the big guy. You don’t have to go 350 like Sweat (and probably shouldn’t) to do that job.

The balls were very juicy then. Bregman hits a lot of wall scrapers. I think the two are at least somewhat related. Also- guys have career seasons. Age 26-28 are typically when they are most likely to happen. that guy probably doesn’t exist ever anymore. This 4 WAR guy ever had every year since that’s a borderline all star does.

Already anecdotally seeing this point on rates. Rates are higher today than they were a year ago (not by much but maybe 1/4 or 1/2 a point. last year was tumbleweeds at this time, I think I closed 3 people total in January/february. this year I’ve got 17 on my board for January and February combined- 10 more making offers regularly and like 20 people getting ready to shop and tire kicking a bit. Nobody likes the rates but they’ve become resigned to them and figure they will refinance on down the road. And, they almost certainly are not wrong. I’ve got another group of 10-20 people I’ve talked to in the last 6 months that would have bought a house but for the fact that they are looking for something specific house and neighborhood wise and it’s not out there due to low inventory. we closed 52 units last year. That was 11th in my company of 1200 originators. So incredibly bleak. Night and day difference right now from my perspective. I think I saw apps were up 10 or 12% from last year at this time. It’s not because conditions are markedly different- they aren’t. It’s because you can only hold back demand for so long. People want to own houses, they want to upgrade, they want to move and eventually they will do so, interest rates be damned.

Here’s the dirty secret- with NiL and sark we were already set to buttfuck Saban. He just sped up the timeline.

The more I think about it the more I think we are going to spend the next decade buttfucking the SEC. And I will still read the same nonsense from aggy, because that’s what dipshits do, they act like dipshits.

I wouldn't mind taking a run at Peralta if he's super cheap. I mean, as opposed to not signing Peralta. Those other guys (absent maybe Gallo but he's got upside I guess) are all probably better bets.

I mean if they did that it wouldn't free up 20M for this season that would be the Hader money to drop below the cap. But yeah- it likely would free up 20M in 25 and 26. If that was the downpayment on a Bregman extension I guess I'd hold my nose and be ok with it. If it meant extending both Bregman and Altuve I'd trade all 4 of those guys but not love it. Resulting roster Diaz/Vic the dick, Abreu (25 only), Altuve, Pena, Bregman, Yordan, Chas, Marisnick, Tucker (25 only), Dubon (25 only), Keppinger, Flotsam JV (25 only), Framber (25 only), Javier, Brown, France, Spaghetti, Whitley, Bielak, Blanco, Abreu, Presley, Hader, AAA dude (souza) plus 60M to fill in 2 starting pitchers (if Whitley isn't that guy- a girl can dream), RF and 1B. 25 roster would be just fine. 26 would need to develop loperfido or something like that to play LF or 1B, sign whatever you can't develop there, hopefully bring JV back on a 15M type deal to watch him chase 300 (he's at 257- if he has 2 more solid years that could get him to 290 ish and the home stretch) and be a quality MOR or BOR guy and hunt a TOR stud. That's a lot of if's to look after but if it meant Altuve and Bregman were Astros for life and we had a dominant back of bullpen and Javier and Brown were good like I think thye will be and France or Spaghetti can hold down the 5/6 spot, it could work. I'd be happy enough to see that play out.

Yep. Rates drop to 5’s this year if there are 3 price cuts and it will unclog the market a lot. My guess is though more buyers will come out than added inventory (some will keep their 2.75 rate and become landlords) price up 5-8% nationally in that scenario imo.

Did you see the Cards give 37 million combined to 3 really shitty and washed up starters? if you duck taped Montero to Urquidy someone would do it.

If he wanted to duck back below the tax… Trade Montero and Urquidy for a low level lotto ticket. or- trade Garcia and McCullers to a team like the Mets- both those deals probably net out to neutral or better combined value with some upside to the contracts for the receiving team. I’d hate the second deal and be just fine with the first one. I’d rather they say fuck the tax though and go sign Brandon Belt to a 1 year 12M deal.

For now. Let’s hope that it lasts.

It was a buttfucking out there last year- no doubt.

Upcoming years? Yeah. This year? Bullpen is the only place you can significantly tangibly improve for full year. You could make a little incremental move for a platoon guy like Joc Pederson to sit Jake against RHP. But that's going to be a smaller improvement (jake has a great glove even on the days when RHP sends him to an 0-4) than Hader. But yeah- it gets dicey after 24 if altuve and bregman doesn't come back and post 25 is nightmare fuel.