Wulaw Horn

Before the Astros that was my favorite team for sure.

Alabraska. Clap clap clap clap clap.

‘Member when I said the AZ guy at WR that should read. Steve Jobs hates me. I miss tactile blackberry keyboards.

Lighten up Francis. I was saying then that was my wet dream guy and he still is, and it’s still not going to happen. But it’s slightly less not going to happen now than it was 48 hours ago. and yeah- I’m well aware of NiL and understand everything you are saying. I’m just sitting around day dreaming.

‘Member when I said the Az guy at rescue er and got laughed at? Yeah, we should get him still. Niblick, Oatis, the corner from Washington and a punter- thats the 4 to close it out with.

Yep.

Why do people do that? So stupid.

Is he not on defense either? I thought they liked him in the field. If they don’t like him in the field they should just cut bait bc he’s got no chance.

This is me. I fucking hate Maldonado more than any human being onthis planet and really really dislike Dubon and it’s irrational because it’s not like either one of them kept writing their names on the fucking lineup card instead of Diaz or Chas.

I’m 45 exactly. This hits close to home.

I will take that bet. He’s headed pro after this year- not to the transfer portal again.

Ha. Rollercoaster. We got all the way up to 27. Then jobs number comes out and it’s 202k. Ew claimed when they’d expected 210k. From up 27 to down 25 in 30 seconds. Now back to 5. Whew! 50 point swing in the last 5 minutes now sitting at the middle. I get it. I want one in March. Stair step down instead of elevator. Better for industry and order.

We are ok. Mbs still up 15 bips for the day. Stripping out food and shelter which is the dorks favorite measure hit expectations, down 1/10th from last month. Market was up 20 in anticipation, lost 18 bips immediately and now back up 15. My guess is we finish the day slightly up or even. if report would have been better then expected I think we were primed to have a HUGE day and start a real rally. I bet this means trading sideways for a while. Which, isn’t bad. Keep the market more orderly.

Florida is right now fucking it up. They have a higher ceiling though as a program NIL wise. Saban wasn’t running which a juggernaught once Texas and some others got to come to the table with our check book legally.

I’d have Florida over them in the NiL landscape world. Bama, oklahoma and LSU at parity of blue blood or near blue blood schools with access to talent but lacking resources of other schools they are rivals with. Aggy would be above that tier if they ever could get out of their own way and if they could get the entire Texag crew to donate $50 a month to NIL efforts in addition to getting that sweet sweet oil money.

You fucked up the Georgia percentage. Texas .8 imo. Yeah, I said it.

New episode up. Free agents remaining deep dive. We look at the past 10 years, when guys signed, how much they signed for, and then compared it to this years market and gave some predictions for about 50 of the unsigned FA’s. Check it out- rate- review. https://open.spotify.com/episode/2boZd3xTlf0hIKn8VUGee5?si=j-FsRVCtQHKf-oe0qCBWxQ

Schwab isn’t who I pay for the data. That’s the first google link that I found. I pay for live data access with immediate analysis. Lots of people do. I post that here sometimes when something is particularly interesting or noteworthy for free as a quick synopsis because you cant link or copy/paste. For they get something wrong occasionally when immediately reacting to a report and say 10 in a row when it’s 10 out of 11? Sure. Do I occasionally misread a data point when I’m transposing or summarizing? I’m sure it’s happened. Today I assumed 100 when looking further it was 98. The basic and broad strokes shit is still the same if the details are slightly wrong occasionally. Nobody has a crystal ball or knows what tomorrow will bring and that certainly includes me. The jobs numbers being overstated every single month in 2023 (except 1 for the literalist dolts) was very bad for the market. The headlines are blared into a megaphone while the back end corrections are stage whispered to the side. The headline numbers for jobs and inflation set the tone for the entire month (along with Fed meetings and comments- which don’t happen every month). when they are constantly wrong and overstated for the entire lousy year and your livelihood depends on it- yeah it’s something that warrants comment. yeah/ maybe they missed in an over correction. Whatever the reason is it seems pretty obvious that it’s a kiss and there’s something wrong with the initial data.

holy fucking shit was I wrong. I said 9 or 10 in a row (because that’s what I read from the people I pay for data analyzed on that I share here for free)and we’ve only been revised down (at least) 12 of the last 13 months. Could be more as the chart only January-November of 23 and December and January were revised down. Aren’t I an idiot. This totally and completely fundamentally changes the entire point! From Schwab: Revisionist history Specific to the downward revisions to the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls, through November of 2023, all but one month experienced downward revisions, as shown below. Sea of downward revisions

Ever own a small business? I've owned 3. It's always in contraction and the world is always ready to fall apart. But there's also always an opportunity out there. World's always ready to end- or make you rich. Most of them work like OPS plus or wRC+ with 100 (or sometimes 50) as baseline. Guess this one doesn't. Thanks. Googled- the 50 year average is 98- so off by 2 points. This is the 24th something consecutive month below average. I don't know how anyone can look at COVID and all the disruptions that have happened and say- nothing but blue sky ahead- this isn't at all scary. Interesting times.

From that same report hiring expectations are down 2% and plans to increase inventory fell 2 percent to -5 lowest since May and April respectively, and at 91 it's still under 100 and anything under 100 is considered contraction territory typically (I'm assuming that for this report- that's how it usually works- but there are so damn many if I goofed so be it). CPI comes out on Thursday and that will potentially be a big market mover in the MBS. MBS has whipsawed around this morning. Started off down 20, at one point in time was up 10, now we are down 15. That 25 or 30 points swing might be worth 1/10 of a point on an interest rate for your home as a point of reference. That's a big move for one morning- but I bet we get it back. Still a nice downtrend over the last 6 weeks.

I was joking around with him one day and asked him why he didn’t upgrade to another trophy wife. He told me at his age (he was 80) a trophy wife was someone who could drive you around and keep track of your pills.

So the treason people forgave him for the bus deal (me at least) is he sponsored parties and tailgates for like 10 years and dumped a metric shit ton of his own money into all that shit. I was in law school when I first met him and never saw him not pick up a tab. The money involved in they bus trip was negligible, like $5k or less I would think- and I doubt he set about to do it to scam 50 people out of 100 bucks- he sucked st logistics. I a have no idea what happened to him after that, as I was married to a total cunt and hadn’t kept up with him at all, but that’s my take on it. it would be like if Imma collected $200 a head from 10 people for Bama tickets and didn’t show- I’d shrug and figure something happened and hope he was ok.

I was there. I’m aware of at least 40% of that story.

Thanks for the listen. Yeah- I can probably try to put that in graphic format for sure. And yeah/ it would be interesting to do maybe Yankees and padres and royals or something to compare rich, other middle class and poor for sure. Will answer this more fully later when I’m at work where I have my research. if you’ve got any other astros fans in your life that would be interested please share that one with them!