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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. Wulaw Horn
    at 8:00 am when habib texted me the MBS market we were up 31. Looked at Jobs report. Happy days are here again. Fucked around, got ready, ate breakfast, commuted to work, logged into my computer and we are down 9 in the MBS market. ON a day with 10k jobs for the month and 113k in revisions downward. And bad manufacturing. Make it make sense Phil, make it make sense.
  2. Wulaw Horn
    That’s still pretty brutally bad.
  3. Wulaw Horn
    What’s so weird is it is almost always adp coming in way low compared to BLS. ADP counts anyone on payroll. BLS counts people actually getting paid. I wonder if there was some sample stuff during the strike or something affecting BLS in a wonky way this month?
  4. Wulaw Horn
    I am so angry. there were basically 3 things that caused interest rates to go up an entire point in the last 6 weeks. jolts coming in 200k over expectations- that was revised downward by 500k openings BLS coming in 100k over expectations: today revised downward what- 120k jobs. inflation going up 1/10. It was basically rounding. What was it like- .03 or something on the miss? did I miss anything causing the rise? Yeah- a coupe fed governors jaw boning the market worse a bit. Why did they do that? Because the numbers they are working with are total and utter garbage. but, 10k jobs this month. That’s a thing that actually happened.
  5. Wulaw Horn
    I have wallowed in sadness for 4 weeks now when it became obvious this nonsense was happening. I think I'm reaching acceptance now and will go back to laughing like the dog in the fire. It's either that or cry or drink bleach or slit my wrists or something...
  6. Wulaw Horn
    I am well aware. Probably cost me 30 deals this month. Such a beat down. I sure as shit hope so. Just need like 300 more after that to get back right.
  7. Wulaw Horn
    And we close at 7.03 for the national average. Right back to basically last December. Just about the worst of this year. Maybe there was another bad month a little worse. I’ve tried to kill those brain cells since then.
  8. Wulaw Horn
    So, we went a little long on part 1 of the three paths available to us. Sets the predicate for next two. We talked about basically the value of everyone in the organization and what we could stockpile of we stripped it all out and sold it for parts. https://open.spotify.com/episode/2JRbnYlM1cqgoWlAA5asgA?si=qkrjp-NMRUKCX5_2iHKk0w&t=4&context=spotify%3Ashow%3A5vKqv5UBQ9OzAc9tPoEzac
  9. Wulaw Horn
    Jolts has us down 500k job openings. Clear weakening in labor market. We still are off 15 points today in the mbs market. It makes absolutely zero sense. We are up 1 actual percent in interest rates since the fed cut 50 basis points. It is literally crazy.
  10. Wulaw Horn
    It’s crazy.
  11. Wulaw Horn
    I was just kidding. Should have at'd @UTPhil2006 and @LCHorn, @smoothlonghorn, @Neonmoon and whoever else is in the industry. Was just messing around.
  12. Wulaw Horn
    Down another 16 points today. Blew past support supposed to prop it up- we are now approaching worst conditions in what 6 months? Something like that? This is absurd and I hate everything about what this market is choosing to be. Fuck it- I guess we will just have 7% interest rates forever (narrators voice- we won't have 7% rates forever I don't think) but damn, I feel like Sisyphus pushing his damn rock up the fucking mountain for the last couple years now. I know all the rest of yall love this market- sorry to be the only one miffed about it.
  13. Wulaw Horn
    Contest closed.
  14. Wulaw Horn
    With the now credit scores on fha sometimes even paying no mortgage insurance vs paying mortgage insurance on the fha the fha payment is still lower. I don’t advise that’s of course, because of the 1.75% yo front funding fee, but some buyers DGAF because that ain’t cash from them today and it’s a lower payment tomorrow, and they don’t care about their equity position.
  15. Wulaw Horn
    Usually shitty credit and also needs to put enough money down to hit DTI. I've done a handful for sure, but pretty unusual. Or- if you have a manual underwrite...
  16. Wulaw Horn
    Mostly right. If an FHA buyer puts down 20% then the MI will get dropped after 11 or 12 years- something like that. Now- how many FHA buyers put down 20%? Very very very few- like less than 5% I would bet.
  17. Wulaw Horn
    I woke up this morning, looked at the market, said son of a fucking bitch and then from my bathroom my 9 year old was like- language daddy. This economy is doing so well we need higher rates.
  18. Wulaw Horn
    Trump 312 or so to 226- 53 GOP Senate- who the fuck knows in the house. That's my prognostication. Go look at my Georgia prediction for that game to see how well I can see the future
  19. Wulaw Horn
    Your boss is exceedingly bad at handicapping (in my opinion) and I will line up as much as he wants to put money on the other side of what he thinks is going to happen on the election. That being said- I think that sort of points toward the point you are making about how little consensus there is on what comes next. We will see in 2 weeks the start of a consensus building one way or another I'm sure as to what's next.
  20. Wulaw Horn
    No way.
  21. Wulaw Horn
    Texas loses in humiliating fashion in the biggest home game we've played in at least 15 years Interest rates up 3/4 of a point since the fed lowered the rate last month when everyone thought it was going to get better Yankees and Dodgers playing for a World Series title after we lost in 2 to the Tigers. Kill me now. I hate sports ball. I hate life. I mean- not really- but wish I had not gotten out of bed today, I think.
  22. Wulaw Horn
    Horns roll, 38-10. Congrats to Vandy for a really good year so far. I don't love how the schedule finishes for them- but hopefully they can win one more (after us) and get to bowl eligibility. Prop Contest- total yards passing for Texas- 354. If this is a really good team (and I think it is) that's the kind of game we will see from them in the bounce back category. If not then I'm really disappointed and probably an idiot for thinking this was a good team.
  23. Wulaw Horn
    @Mr. Drummondnailed the yardage prop on the nose at 285. Congrats for him and he wins this one. Quoted the 3 who picked Georgia to win. Shockingly enough satyanash was one of them. 30 points for Gut wagon, 32 points for Sat and 43 for HUBS. Hope you are all happy with yourself for being sooooooo right. I'm just bitter and projecting. Totally not taking it out on any of yall.
  24. Wulaw Horn
    This is so much fun. Good times. Good times.
  25. Wulaw Horn
    It’s the 8th game in our season. Thats how we’ve always labeled this shit.

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