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Wulaw Horn

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Wulaw Horn

  1. I know a decent t number of realtors that go on listing appointments and have to justify what they are going to do to help make sure the client gets the best deal possible. I know of no one that interviews agents in the buy side. That’s like “you got a drivers license and can you open up the house for me to look at? Cool- I’m good then”.
  2. That makes a lot more sense. This spring I had some people in there in the low 5’s for a couple week stretch- maybe March? Late February?
  3. That’s not accurate. More like a month on the interest rates on 30’s years. we don’t know if it’s the start of a trend line or a blip. I think everyone in the industry is betting rates go down and somewhat significantly, it I don’t think anyone expects that to happen tomorrow per se.
  4. Down 41 bips now today- fun fun fun. Fed Chair a little hawkish in his remarks. Then had a D- treasury auction today. None of that seems like it should be worth 50 points, but the market just can't wait to get all emo and sell sell sell.
  5. We actually did break below 4.5 briefly yesterday evening in after hours trading. mbs have not had as good a run as 10 year lately.
  6. The funny thing is there actually is going to be an NFL draft, he will go in the top 45 picks (probably top 20) and you will be surprised even though everyone has told you otherwise.
  7. Texas 38 TCU- 28 prop contest- total rushing yards (counting QB Sacks, WR runs etc) for UT 241 yards rushing.
  8. Congrats to yall. I obviously didn't want the battle for Texas to go down that way, but I'm friends with a lot of people who this made really happy so blah blah blah. Don't mind me while I sit in the corner and bleed out from slashing my wrists.
  9. Dusty Baker says he's not so sure about that. Playing your best players is dumb. It's the intangibles you want in a player.
  10. I got negged from one of your favorite- a cloak room poster- for saying that yesterday- that I welcome him headed to the portal. Bet you don't catch that stray.
  11. I still wake up sobbing at night screaming whyyyyyyyyyyyy at the top of my lungs sometimes. My wife knows now I'm just thinking about Luhnow leaving. Finally, for the first time since Bill Walsh coached the 49ers something I loved was being taken care of by someone worthy of taking care of it and then that happened.
  12. Part 2 of the 3 part recap where we talk all things manager. If you are burned out on that don’t listen. If you want to see us take 2 or 3 different approaches to quantify what happened last year and that down stream affect on the team this is for you. Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0H7wvSG9X2CFhv4GbqIwIc?si=6YOGjmD4QgeZARtec6O9bw Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/852d9661-0b82-43da-8ae9-955d001c400b/episodes/8a8278b4-6669-4d0d-9bba-21f96e3e1fbb/breathing-orange-fire-a-houston-astros-podcast-episode-36-eulogy-part-ii?ref=dm_sh_P8vIT3GSUBiQZh7znDEafRQry
  13. Nah. Well, maybe kind of sort of. It's ok to arrive at the same answer from 2 different perspectives. We didn't tell each other how we were going to think about the problem nor did we show our work afterwards so he might have gotten to the same place as me (or somewhere different) thinking about it a 3rd different way. Is that true? I never ever ever heard that. Where did you hear that from?
  14. Ok so this is funny. Preparing for my POD today and as promised we said we were going to dork out on the math and try to calculate how many wins Dusty cost us last year. I did an hour and a half of spreadsheets and baseball reference and a bunch of other stuff and my number came out to 3.2 Games. I think it's probably higher than that b/c I made no attempt to play guys in more advantageous situations (like Meyers only against LHP, or Diaz never DH'ing), so I'd say the number was probably 4 games he cost us through lineup decisions. Then, to check myself I just played Diaz at catcher 125 games and maldy at Catcher like 40, while also giving Chas back an extra 15 or 20 games Dusty took from him and benching Abreu so Diaz could get 20 games at 1b. Just those 2 simple decisions, pro rated out, added up to 3.1. Then I looked at our Pythag vs our actual record and it was 93 wins v the 90 we actually had. So, with even luck and optimal playing time the answer is 97 wins. This last years astros team, with the players available to it, and average luck should have probably won 97 games. Will be interested in seeing Andrew's math on this. We will be doing a weekly throughout the offseason. 1st offseason one is look back at manager look ahead at managers we like or are looking at. #2 will be highs and lows and favorite parts of the year. After that it will just be whatever makes sense in light of events going on in the offseason- projecting out 2024 and then some talk about baseball movies. I love baseball movies.
  15. I think that's the right order. We really need to get a backup QB in next year in case Arch gets hurt, presuming Quinn goes pro and MM transfers. I'd take Card back in a heartbeat if he wanted to go ahead and do that, or obviously a guy like him. MM is driving a lambo and Hudson Card is driving a Pinto.
  16. Any idea what is going on today in the market? Literally zero economic news out and we are down 42 bips. Profit taking from a big week last week?
  17. That was always going to be the case and the take never made sense. sark just infatuated with the size and arm strength and figured why not. This is why not. Rather have a bus driver in between Quinn and arch. Looks like he did that this year.
  18. I mean we got the ball right back on our 40 or 50 or something and had a wide open worthy for 7 that MM missed and an egregious no call on PI. mid he hits that candy it’s 24-0 and nobody is talking about go v not on the play before.
  19. Look, you know from the Astros thread I am a go by the book guy. The issue here is it’s 8 or 14 opportunities over the course of a season and the goal isn’t to maximize all points scored on the year, but rather to win an individual game, and some times almost certain some points beats opportunity for zero points or opportunity for additional points. I get the argument. I also like aggressiveness.
  20. And Baxter. Baxter is massively dinged too. we are a walking mash unit.
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