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BehoId, The Underminer!

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Everything posted by BehoId, The Underminer!

  1. It's the October Minus Two surprise.
  2. My impossible-to-verify prediction: the North Carolina destruction changes more voting behavior (either preventing people from reaching polls, spurring people to get to polls, or changing minds) than the winner's margin in that state.
  3. Yes, very few Americans realize that.
  4. With NE2, Harris just has to win the right half of this chart. Spend as much in PA as humanly possible.
  5. you're leaning on the exactness of polls where even the biggest poll believer would acknowledge very ordinary error exceeds the margins.
  6. I would also recommend never visiting.
  7. yes, it’s child slavery. But is it really a scandal?
  8. You of all people know the answer is yes.
  9. reduced enthusiasm is always good. the flip side is i've always thought the white trash branding that Rs do these days has to be a net negative. maybe they're wising up to that too.
  10. Basic decency is lacking more than basic intelligence. People were a lot less educated 100 years ago but figured out how to elect Lincoln
  11. then implement my plan for an aleutian beach condo!
  12. I don't really understand the question, but I think Nate was saying that by registration, in 2020 it was R+3 or something and now it is R+6.1. That is, for every 1000 D registrations, there was 1030 Rs in 2020 and now 1061 Rs.
  13. Nate Cohn tweeted this morning that AZ by voter registration is 3.1 points more red than in 2020. Hard to be confident that could be overcome.
  14. Word. T Roosevelt should never look like a dweeb.
  15. That’s one of my all time favorite clips.
  16. There are post 2024 reasons as well. You let a state go and it'll keep going.
  17. A daily conversation: "I'm thinking we should migrate." "But to where, sweetie?" "To a country we hate." "Not the US then. They have rules against that."
  18. Sounds like he understands it pretty well.
  19. I just looked at AZ 2020 and they have a crazy right wing county up near Las Vegas that completely undoes-and-then-some the Maricopa county D advantage. So it ends up being Tucson/Pima versus the rest of the state.
  20. Straying quickly into jlaw.okay.gif-land
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