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BehoId, The Underminer!

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Everything posted by BehoId, The Underminer!

  1. No one cares about a 7MM popular win. It was skin of the teeth by the counting that matters.
  2. Probably Tuberville i think Hawley and Ron Johnson would actually be less likely to get my vote Hard to say
  3. lol at “you’re going to lose, drop out” being a coup. Or “you’re going to lose, we will not donate to you” being a coup. Or “you’re going to lose, I’m going to publicly voice that” being a coup.
  4. I’ve fought through a lot worse to complete the jerk.
  5. Polls take a couple days to do typically. I bet this is post-assassination bump, not post convention.
  6. https://circle.tufts.edu/latest-research/half-youth-voted-2020-11-point-increase-2016
  7. Re: youth vote. They actually did come out in 2020. Likely the difference maker.
  8. Not resigning and not endorsing isn’t ideal imo. Have to look like a well oiled machine. This already looks like chaos. An open convention will further that.
  9. NYT says Biden knows it’s over. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/us/politics/biden-election-drop-out.html
  10. I think G Elliot is going to really have to tweak 538’s formula for next time. If he’s still saying it is a toss up (or even that Biden is leading) and the boots on the ground know that we are in Hail Mary mode and have to do unprecedented things for a chance to win, it really puts to lie that their model is worth anything. Someone pointed out earlier that it is more heavily weighted toward fundamentals this early before weighing more on polls later. That might be the issue that gets heavily modified.
  11. That seems exaggerated. That doesn't look like a memory slip to me as implied by the transcript.
  12. At this point, I don't get him trying to stay in. He has to know -- or the sycophants around him have to know -- that he can't make a public appearance. He's getting D- at best at every one now. How are you going to have a campaign and you can't do anything in public without embarrassing yourself? He can't make it through the weekend even, in my opinion.
  13. well, we know someone with a lot of vice president experience already.
  14. I don’t think there is a practical difference because Joe would have to be on board with not being nominee. There is no buyers remorse because it’s the product’s decision whether he’ll be bought.
  15. How do you not know your own major policy position. It's one thing to read out loud something stupid on the teleprompter like "[Pause]." It's another to mess up something like that. I legitimately didn't know it was anywhere near this bad. I'll admit he's been cringeworthy the whole presidency so I avoid watching him when I can. I didn't realize that we need to start thinking about Alzheimer's. I think you can reasonably conclude with a straight face that you don't know whether the country will be in worse hands over the next 4 years based on who's elected. If there is an emergency war-like situation or something else that needs quick understanding of what is going on, is Biden capable of that?
  16. I do like that he wants to do that sort of stuff now, two years after he had a unified congress and far too close to the end of his term to get legislation done on it anyway.
  17. Atlantic does a good job summarizing the issue. https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/s/1GygoEPUcz
  18. even worse: 538 is g elliot, who i like more than the nates, but who was the slowest to admit massive screw ups in 2020 when he was at the economist. denial for a long time. so i'd say of the major folks (again, even though he is the most likeable), it's probably run by meh-est of the guys reliability-wise.
  19. that 538 thing is bananas. not only is biden the favorite, but something like half of biden's wins are 340+ EVs (he got 306 last time)
  20. Silver is the worst because he knows more than me and also willing to say stupid stuff to be in the spotlight. I'm perpetually
  21. all it takes is for some mediocre left wing celebrity with a mediocre left wing following to retweet that to make it come out like that. you could have a single tweet from jon lovett saying "lol look at this poll," and then this is what you'd get.
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