BehoId, The Underminer!

i hope we goes burgum. with vance you can see the suburban educated republican male finding a little place to hide.

uh oh. daddy's reaching for the belt.

It’s be cool if he bombed Cambodia first.

@bolverk @wildcat09 the evidence shows thelma and louise are actually HIGHER than the cliff! all is well!

Wait. Why did I say Harrelson. I meant Mcconaughey

Hanks-Swift 24. LFG O'Neal-Clooney 24. LFG Harrelson-MichelleO. 24 LFG

heh. actuarial tables for someone 80-84 in the U.S.: 1 in 4 chance of dying this year. how long is a presidential term again? https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/probability-of-dying-by-age?time=2019..latest&country=~USA

good info. given that so much of the $ would have to be spent to raise the next person's profile (can't just all be anti-Trump ads that DNC/independent could do), this seems very limiting.

they are purporting to show it compared to the polls throughout the previous decades. i can't imagine that the high 2020 error is because they decided to cram a bunch more questionable polls in the 2020 evaluation (thus ramping the error up) while maintaining only good polls in the pre-2020 analysis (this keeping old error low). don't know for sure though how the qualify what poll to look at any year though.

i'm very happy that we have a factor in a poll that we can agree looks off. anything for the others?

i repped you because i hate motivated thinking in reading these polls. the polls are the best evidence we've got. but i also think they suck ass and it won't surprise me if they're wrong. the 2020 ones particularly sucked. https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf

WaPo on Never Trumpers' thoughts: For moderate Republicans who have vowed never to support former president Donald Trump, witnessing President Biden’s unfitness for another term is more than just a little alarming. As Biden struggles to salvage his reelection prospects, I asked my Post Opinions colleagues Jim Geraghty and Megan McArdle: How should Never Trumpers think about this moment? 💬 💬 💬 James Hohmann: We have heard so much about the double doubters or the double haters, and it feels like they’re going to decide this election. Is there any way that the Democratic Party’s nomination process, including an open convention, winds up giving them a more appetizing choice? Jim Geraghty: It is a dark, perhaps catastrophic moment in public life, spurred by a majority of Republicans who desired a third Trump campaign and an almost 82-year-old man who should have known better but is blinded by his own ego and inner circle. Megan McArdle: I have long been resigned to voting for Biden, as I did in 2020, not because I like the Democratic policy platform — I don’t — but because he was better than an erratic, impulsive narcissist with a disdain for policy detail and a total disrespect for institutional restraint. At the moment, I’m worried that the Democrats will show me they aren’t much better. Jim: Two generic Democratic lawmakers without any Biden or Vice President Harris baggage could probably win handily against Trump — think any combo of Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Michael Bennet, Andy Beshear. But it will be almost impossible to get to an open convention unless Biden has a change of heart. James: It will be fascinating to see how many House and Senate Democrats are willing to go on the record about their concerns this week. Unlike for Trump, there is far less concern about consequences for crossing Biden. But most members want to be team players. Jim: Yeah, the impulses to protect “the big guy” and dismiss critics of your party’s leader are not just found in the GOP. James: Biden is coming across as Trumpy in some of his cleanup tour: The defiance, the denial of reality and polls, the boasts about crowd size, the efforts to portray criticisms of him as attacks on his supporters. If not Biden, who? Jim: If it isn’t Biden, it’s almost certainly Harris. As I wrote last week, she is now, at least nominally, the less risky option. Megan: I agree, not least because she’s likely to be fully lucid and in command during a strategic crisis. But as a candidate, she has both upsides and downsides. Democratic primary voters didn’t care for her, even in her home state. The general electorate, which is to her right, is even less likely to be wowed. James: What do you think winds up determining the outcome of the election then? Or do you think it’s baked? Megan: I think it will be very hard to stand up a whole new campaign in a few months. The main benefit of switching to a different candidate is that conservatives won’t have as much oppo on that person (unless that person is Harris). The drawback is that voters won’t know them, and the process is likely to be ugly. Jim: Maybe the best-case scenario for Democrats is that Trump, overconfident from his current surge, starts venting his spleen and seeming even more unhinged. Something where just enough voters in the “blue wall” states say, “Ugh, we just can’t go through that again.” James: Do you think Never Trumpers see through Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? Obviously, he originally hoped to appeal to Kennedy Democrats. But he has been so unhinged. Megan: I don’t think RFK appeals to Never Trumpers at all. He’s like Trump, but less self-interested and more unhinged. Jim: Agreed. Never Trumpers (generally) want things go back to “normal” — pre-Trump, maybe pre-Obama. RFK is the “everything stinks, everyone lies, burn the whole system down” candidate. James: I guess that brings it back to: What should Never Trumpers do? Just wait and see how it shakes out? We are only 120 or so days from the election! Megan: I am still reluctantly voting for Biden. But I’m not going to shame anyone who decides that they cannot vote to install a president in clear cognitive decline, whose infirmity may trigger a 25th Amendment crisis. There is no candidate for us, and that’s not a surprise, because the smallest quadrant in American politics is occupied by Never Trump conservatives and libertarians. Jim: I’d tell people it is entirely legitimate to conclude that no presidential candidate deserves or has earned your vote. As Ted Cruz said at the 2016 GOP convention, “Vote your conscience.” Of course, Cruz knuckled under a little while later. 😝

that's true. but it's not convincing me that it is the entirety of the difference. and all you need is a tiny difference from 2020 to lose. 2020 was all about fixing the problem that was in everyone's face. people did the responsible if not fun thing. now the problem isn't in our face. asking the public for a 4 year memory is too much.

To me this seems to all be very clear individual political calculus. Every individual thinks the same thing and is 80% sure everyone else thinks it too. Everyone is looking around to make sure when they say it, everyone else is saying it too. There’s a nagging doubt that everyone else steps back right after they’ve committed themselves.

What so amazing is how out of the blue this was. There was just no way to anticipate last year when he was 80 that he would be 81 this year.

Yeah. It’s his crack head son, and others.

Oof.

he was up by like seven points the whole race.

you should speak to the manager of nyt

this would be rock solid gold.

I've often thought the same about GWB being that reaction to GHWB losing in 92.

lord knows i am.

pedro reupping his starmaking role.

it's jover. and the quicker we realize it's jover, the more likely we can do something about it.