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Everything posted by BehoId, The Underminer!
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we're all educated. educated people love data. it stinks that we are going to have to just repeat "who even answers the phone these days?" and our other half dozen memorized excuses in order to ignore the data for the foreseeable future. hopefully the polls will switch soon so we can go back to looking at them. if biden can repeat the map of 2020, but lose AZ, NV, and MI, he still gets over 269 EVs which made me feel better.
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I do think it is a consequence free way of making a political statement by and large. There are going to be some votes shaved off this November because of it, but my guess is that is on the order of 1-in-10 of those that voted this way in the primary. It’s MI so every vote counts but hopefully not down to that level.
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Come on Biden. We can pardon one
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Why won't Nikki Haley be the first female POTUS?
BehoId, The Underminer! replied to tantric superman's topic in Cloak Room
tim scott would help him zero point zero. probably hurt him. i can see him losing a state like GA because of the negatives of putting a black guy up there would outweigh any vote he gets through his new outreach to minorities. -
election season is long. it could happen Events 10 APR A Starlit Tribute to Taylor Swift Wed, 6:00 – 8:30 PM Dallas Dallas, TX 5 APR Candlelight: A Tribute to Taylor Swift Fri, 5:30 – 9:30 PM Edison's, 1724 Cockrell Ave Dallas, TX 16 MAR Lover – Taylor Swift Tribute Band Sat, 6 – 8 PM Monument Realty, One Cowboys Way Frisco, TX 15 MAR CELEBRATION AND DANCE PARTY [SOLD OUT] Fri, Mar 15 – Sat, Mar 16 Hilton Dallas Lincoln Centre, 5410 Lyndon B Johnson Fwy Dallas, TX 24 MAR Taylor Swift Market + Trivia Sun, 12 – 5 PM Happy Hippie Brewing Co., 500 Lockwood Dr Richardson, TX 16 MAR Lover - Taylor Swift Tribute Band Sat, Mar 16 – Sun, Mar 17 4341 PGA Pkwy Frisco, TX 16 MAR Taylor Swift Tribute concert in Dallas Sat, 8 PM South Side Music Hall, 1135 Botham Jean Blvd Dallas, TX 10 JUN The ERAS Camp Mon, Jun 10 – Fri, Jun 14 3301 Preston Rd Frisco, TX 5 APR Taylor Rave Fri, 8 – 10 PM The Studio at The Factory, 2727 Canton St Dallas, TX 8 MAR Lover - Tribute to Taylor Swift Fri, 8 – 11 PM Lava Cantina The Colony, 5805 Grandscape Blvd The Colony, TX 28 FEB Taylor Swift Trivia and Sing Along Tomorrow, 7 – 9 PM Roanoke ChopShop Live, 309 S Oak St Roanoke, TX 2 MAR Taylor Swift Wine Night Sat, 8 – 11 PM Winehaus, 1628 Park Pl Ave Fort Worth, TX 6 MAR Taylor Swift Trivia Night Wed, 7 PM Fowling Warehouse DFW, 1714 14th St Plano, TX
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if langford is what they say, a middle of the lineup of seager, adolis, and langford with simien and jung on either side would be pretty bad ass. and carter!
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forgot max scherzer was in that movie
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Fredo: "Well, this little boy I was going to bond with fishing can't go out any more. Oh well, this contract killer will be just as fun."
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His name . . . IS YANG!
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RIP light tan Sweden
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they control the senate now.
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Pacino not being in that scene is what makes it so good.
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Political Cartoons - The Politics Thread.
BehoId, The Underminer! replied to ROFL BOX's topic in Cloak Room
i was in a competition for persuasive writing or creative writing or something in high school and used the myth of the cave in every one. -
another one of his i like to pull up is his scene in collateral. he's got this great talent in both of being able to be menacing just barely under the surface. then he'll let it go. then he'll get right back at it.
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At least people are reporting on Sotomayor. With RBG we were treated to those ridiculous “she still works out every day!” stories all the time.
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That Ted Koppel video of him with Sean Hannity is really on point for me. Something like -- "You are very good at what you do, which is make people care about ideology instead of facts." 20 years of that and no one cares if someone is hurt, or defrauded, dictatorial, is treasonous. Can I fit some act into my dozen boxes of "Things That My Ideology Likes"? If so, then it is good.
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"dying at different times" is to remind our fellow readers that it wasn't just antivax folks. most folks that died early had more D demographic traits. Most people that died later didn't. early pandemic Figure 1. Age-adjusted COVID-19 death rates, by urbanicity of county of residence: United States, 2020 this flipped later In the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, relative excess mortality increased in rural counties in the U.S. while decreasing in metropolitan ones, according to a new study led by the University of Pennsylvania and Boston University. Published in Science Advances, it’s the first-ever study showing monthly excess deaths at the county level for the first two years of the pandemic. i post those because people seem to assume that covid deaths naturally mean huge net D votes. there might be some net D affect, but we have to remember that we have a bit of a recency bias here and forgot who it was killing at the outset.
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covid deaths are under .3% of the country. assume that means .3% of voters, which seems fair as it skews old. if you assume those are 2-1 Republicans, that means a .1% D gain. no state was within .1% in 2020 (GA smallest at .24%). note that you might not be able to assume any net vote change because early deaths were very urban. it wasn't until later in the pandemic that they went rural/anti-vax folks.
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