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BehoId, The Underminer!

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Everything posted by BehoId, The Underminer!

  1. BehoId, The Underminer!
  2. BehoId, The Underminer!
    Yes! 538 officially says that no matter who you want to win, that's probably not going to happen. Harris 499 Trump 498 No winner 3 1,000 simulations https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
  3. BehoId, The Underminer!
    intentionally leave off NE2 or was that an accident?
  4. BehoId, The Underminer!
    This board: She's focusing on the states that matter! She's not dumb like Hillary! She's leaving the states that matter! She knows it's in the bag!
  5. BehoId, The Underminer!
    by comparison, 2020 looked like 59D-35R : https://www.aaiusa.org/library/the-arab-american-vote-2020
  6. BehoId, The Underminer!
    Does the 390K buffer number for PA make sense given how different early voting is this time than last time? Wasn't that number built on expectations of people's early vs day-of voting looking like previous years -- and we're already seeing it doesn't?
  7. BehoId, The Underminer!
    FYI regarding gender breakdown of electorate historically. https://infogram.com/number-turnout-presidential-years-fig-2-1hmr6g7730lyo6n 2020 was 53.1% female. So that 55.2 is a good number.
  8. BehoId, The Underminer!
    Legitimately baffled why he could think that’s a forgone conclusion in Trump’s favor.
  9. BehoId, The Underminer!
    pretty woke imo
  10. BehoId, The Underminer!
    I mean, yeah. For about 50 years now.
  11. BehoId, The Underminer!
    it's gonna be 270 on the nose. blue wall states, no sun belt.
  12. BehoId, The Underminer!
    be interesting to see what they have to say about the statute of limitations.
  13. BehoId, The Underminer!
    This is one where I think the data is definitely off. Posited: 1) people tend to gamble for the result they want to happen. 2) males gamble on predictit more than females. 3) this year will see uniquely high gender polarization. = predictit saying Trump will win handily.
  14. BehoId, The Underminer!
  15. BehoId, The Underminer!
    My wife phonebanked for GA yesterday. Talked with three folks. One was a "the system is fucked, I'm not voting" millennial. After a 40 minute conversation, he said "I still don't know if I'll end up voting, but if I do it'll be for Kamala and it'll be because of this call."
  16. BehoId, The Underminer!
  17. BehoId, The Underminer!
    “Think how dumb the average person is. Now realize (etc etc)”. G Carlin, foreseeing Michies arrival. We talked about this with respect to FL and TX. These are not independent variables.
  18. BehoId, The Underminer!
    ?? i'm not angry at all.
  19. BehoId, The Underminer!
    Looks like 2 days until Jimmy Carter can vote.
  20. BehoId, The Underminer!
    If Trump loses, does he run again in 28? On one hand, O. L. D. On the other hand, he’s shown that he can push around every other R without even breaking a sweat and the position pays like none other in his life.
  21. BehoId, The Underminer!
    Shedding 5% would be a net loss over shedding 15% if the base of the first is 3x the second. Which it is.
  22. BehoId, The Underminer!
  23. BehoId, The Underminer!
    if you're from oklahoma, it's likely you live in your car. mortgage deduction.
  24. BehoId, The Underminer!
    there's another side of this coin you're leaving off.
  25. BehoId, The Underminer!

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