BehoId, The Underminer!

You’ll have to ask nicely to 2/3 of the states.

It’s also just dumb. State lines are arbitrary things then. It’s no different than saying you’re ceding the elections to the left 2/3rds of the country.

today they said it was sunny, but just last week they said it was rainy! make up your mind, weatherman!

repeated claims on here that media promotes 50-50 as it generates clicks. biggest evidence against that: 2016 and 2020 were not promoted as 50-50s, even though they probably should have been. Clinton has 71% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ Biden has 89% chance of win. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ why did these pundits suddenly realize 50-50 generates more clicks? biden was never close to 50-50 the whole year, clinton pinched down toward 50-50 twice, but spent much more time in the 75% range.

when i 'drop' a deuce, it grows

These hurricanes are really big deals. I bet there are millions spread between FL, GA, and NC -- all important states in this election -- that simply won't vote because they are too busy getting their lives back together. We talk about whatever Muslim group in MI or whatever. These two weather events will outpace them all.

I think it just shows the limits of this tool. We are using a hacksaw to cut things that have to be measured in micrometers. We live in a 50.1% world, and polls are made for 55-45s.

There are six males in my family. Catholic. Two Longhorns two Aggies two Red Raiders. We try not to talk politics at all, and we still have very good relationships with each other. Even with that unstated politics ban, they know what I think about Trump. Of the five others, I can tell three have wanted to suggest to me they think Trump is a retard and a joke. Expressions not made pre-2020. So from my vantage point it still feels like defections must be happening from his camp. Maybe it’s Jan 6. Maybe it’s just the passage of time has beat down all the self delusion that gets constructed around these voters.

leaves his work at the office, imo

You have a tweet from a guy that you know wants you to hate entire groups of people. How much thinking do you do before spreading it onward? Do you think, ‘Wow, me latching onto this message instantly says something about me’? All sorts of questions like that go through my mind when I see this stuff. Do you think ‘Is it weird that it’s important to me to get other people to hate this group?’

It appears that we’ve stopped with the Glen Powell soft takeover of our celebrity representative and are back in the Mcconaughey corner. Good.

when you're not a diplomat, yes.

Never mind. Never Read the Replies, but I did read the replies and they convinced me Nate’s theory doesn’t stand to too much scrutiny. One, predictit has similar numbers but whales don’t exist because of $850 price cap and two the markets basically mirror the same perceived jump in PA for Trump, which isn’t really a statement on overall popular vote.

Nate makes good points re:Polymarket.

my prediction for NC is that more ballots are affected than the difference in votes there. it might be close to that in FL too. bigger spread expected, but closer to vote time.

Article on the Muslim drops in Michigan. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/michigan-harris-arab-muslim-jewish-voters.html?unlocked_article_code=1.QU4.DqXi.apqZEVrDSSMR&smid=url-share I bet Kamala is going to air a lot of stuff about the Muslim bans Trump did. A lot of interviewees in there said they're voting third party. Some go to Trump.

the richest person in the world also is very lucky at name draws.

Either joking is going on on this page or I ❤️ Jim Crow laws is going on on this page.

It’s a continuation of this. The voices you hear are likely to be educated. You can see more every day what those people think of the right.

1) Stipe is a boomer is the craziest thought. 2) It made me actually google it. Even google's generative AI is in denial about it (because he totally is). AI Overview Learn more…Opens in new tab No, Michael Stipe is not a boomer, as he was born on January 4, 1960, making him a member of Generation X. Stipe is the lyricist and frontman of the band R.E.M. He has been described as a rock legend who helped define American independent culture. His songwriting style is elliptical, and his lyrics are poetic and range from manic melancholy to post-apocalyptic hope. Stipe has also been involved in other creative projects, including: Producing an album by Athens singer-songwriter Vic Chesnutt Sponsoring a Deep South night at the New Music Seminar to showcase young Dixie underground bands Co-founding the nonprofit film company C-00, which produces public-service announcements and films

william the conqueror henry harrison, imo

The entire history of the U.S. in four presidents. WHHarrison: 1773-1841 Grover Cleveland 1837-1908 LBJ: 1908-1973. Any of the living presidents. Carter: 1924-present, Obama, Clinton, Biden, GWB. or wood.

It would skew old, so that points R, but recall that early Covid impacts were almost all urban.