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BehoId, The Underminer!

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Everything posted by BehoId, The Underminer!

  1. It would skew old, so that points R, but recall that early Covid impacts were almost all urban.
  2. Interesting article about female Gen Xers having outsized support of Trump. https://wapo.st/3ZGWAI0 Premise is shaky, but it is this: (Author acknowledges premise is shaky later in the article. Maybe that poll cited is just wrong). She goes and contacts some of the people polled who said they're open to discussing. Reasons include the retarded: Not really any conclusion drawn except that this is a generation of scared people.
  3. the finger wag is a classic
  4. yeah, shifts i bet aren't huge. but i do bet that there is real affect on actually getting to the polls. people are going to be living hand to mouth for a while there and won't have the ability to worry about esoteric things like voting.
  5. Here's the map of flooding here's the map of voting. obviously, western NC is blue Asheville and red elsewhere.
  6. It's the October Minus Two surprise.
  7. My impossible-to-verify prediction: the North Carolina destruction changes more voting behavior (either preventing people from reaching polls, spurring people to get to polls, or changing minds) than the winner's margin in that state.
  8. Yes, very few Americans realize that.
  9. With NE2, Harris just has to win the right half of this chart. Spend as much in PA as humanly possible.
  10. you're leaning on the exactness of polls where even the biggest poll believer would acknowledge very ordinary error exceeds the margins.
  11. I would also recommend never visiting.
  12. yes, it’s child slavery. But is it really a scandal?
  13. You of all people know the answer is yes.
  14. reduced enthusiasm is always good. the flip side is i've always thought the white trash branding that Rs do these days has to be a net negative. maybe they're wising up to that too.
  15. Basic decency is lacking more than basic intelligence. People were a lot less educated 100 years ago but figured out how to elect Lincoln
  16. then implement my plan for an aleutian beach condo!
  17. I don't really understand the question, but I think Nate was saying that by registration, in 2020 it was R+3 or something and now it is R+6.1. That is, for every 1000 D registrations, there was 1030 Rs in 2020 and now 1061 Rs.
  18. Nate Cohn tweeted this morning that AZ by voter registration is 3.1 points more red than in 2020. Hard to be confident that could be overcome.
  19. Word. T Roosevelt should never look like a dweeb.
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