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BehoId, The Underminer!

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Everything posted by BehoId, The Underminer!

  1. firewall inventor guy revises to say Ds should feel good at 500K now instead of 390K.
  2. (troph is not speaking with troph's voice here)
  3. who has even heard of nazis?
  4. To use a fishing analogy, his "shoelaces are tied together."
  5. Yes! 538 officially says that no matter who you want to win, that's probably not going to happen. Harris 499 Trump 498 No winner 3 1,000 simulations https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
  6. intentionally leave off NE2 or was that an accident?
  7. This board: She's focusing on the states that matter! She's not dumb like Hillary! She's leaving the states that matter! She knows it's in the bag!
  8. by comparison, 2020 looked like 59D-35R : https://www.aaiusa.org/library/the-arab-american-vote-2020
  9. Does the 390K buffer number for PA make sense given how different early voting is this time than last time? Wasn't that number built on expectations of people's early vs day-of voting looking like previous years -- and we're already seeing it doesn't?
  10. FYI regarding gender breakdown of electorate historically. https://infogram.com/number-turnout-presidential-years-fig-2-1hmr6g7730lyo6n 2020 was 53.1% female. So that 55.2 is a good number.
  11. Legitimately baffled why he could think that’s a forgone conclusion in Trump’s favor.
  12. it's gonna be 270 on the nose. blue wall states, no sun belt.
  13. be interesting to see what they have to say about the statute of limitations.
  14. This is one where I think the data is definitely off. Posited: 1) people tend to gamble for the result they want to happen. 2) males gamble on predictit more than females. 3) this year will see uniquely high gender polarization. = predictit saying Trump will win handily.
  15. My wife phonebanked for GA yesterday. Talked with three folks. One was a "the system is fucked, I'm not voting" millennial. After a 40 minute conversation, he said "I still don't know if I'll end up voting, but if I do it'll be for Kamala and it'll be because of this call."
  16. “Think how dumb the average person is. Now realize (etc etc)”. G Carlin, foreseeing Michies arrival. We talked about this with respect to FL and TX. These are not independent variables.
  17. Looks like 2 days until Jimmy Carter can vote.
  18. If Trump loses, does he run again in 28? On one hand, O. L. D. On the other hand, he’s shown that he can push around every other R without even breaking a sweat and the position pays like none other in his life.
  19. Shedding 5% would be a net loss over shedding 15% if the base of the first is 3x the second. Which it is.
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