I wonder if an actuary has ever done a public assessment on whether a player should stay in school or not. There are a lot of uncertainties, but since insurance companies are willing to set up policies for players I am going to assume it isn't impossible. The difference between 3rd and 6th round money isn't really that great, especially when there isn't a 0% chance that you get injured and end up with nothing. Getting a bit less money a year earlier probably balances some of the difference up front and then the fact that you are also a year earlier in getting that second contract reduces the difference a bit more. If you legitimately have a shot at the Top 40 then, there could be enough upside to make staying another year worth it, but that is where the uncertainties get really muddy as the profiles of those who end up in the Top 40 probably aren't easily quantified. I am still not sure I buy that Deshon was going to make a ton more money if he stayed, but I do know if he blew out a knee or got a series of concussions while playing for us this year he would walk away with a nothing from the NFL.