Wait, so you are saying we are stuck with Shaka for 4 more years no matter what? I am not arguing in that realm. I already barely watch basketball because of how shitty we are, but if we are in for 4 more years of Shaka I'll just leave it be and move on.
The rumor we are basing our arguments around is the idea that if we find Shaka a soft landing we will make a move this off-season. That soft-landing isn't going to soften our blow by much more than $1M a year. So if indeed CDC is weighing Shaka's tenure based on his new job lowering the payout then we are taking about a $3M difference that supposedly keeps us from changing coaches this year. So the calculation comes down to what are the benefits of keeping Shaka another year vs. bringing in a new coach. An increase in attendance alone could cover a fair piece of that difference if the new coach is immediately successful. Enthusiasm for a new coach, especially one that is successful, greases the wheels for donations down the road. It is impossible to put a dollar figure on it, but that too certainly pays for the buy out difference and it's the big donor enthusiasm that likely carries the biggest influence.
I don't think CDC retains Shaka for the full term of his contract. It comes down to how confident CDC is in his list of replacements and his ability to seal the deal. If CDC thinks he will hire a home run and can make the deal, then I have little doubt he will make the move now regardless of whether Shaka finds a soft landing, because the move will ultimately pay for itself. If he can't be certain of a deal or he thinks the next guy is going to need a long ramp up to success, then perhaps he waits and sees if Shaka turns it around. But if he doesn't pull the trigger this year, then he has to be prepared to keep him beyond next year as well, because the optics will suck if he fires him after a season of decent improvement.