I’d be leery of just disregarding the polls and relying on Dobbs to carry the day everywhere. My recollection of the 2022 midterms was that people were expecting a red wave due to historical trends of a party’s typical midterm results for a new president and Biden’s low approval rating that had begun after the Afghanistan withdrawal, but that the polls themselves weren’t showing a wave coming. The Nate Silvers and 538’s of the world claim that in most cases the polls for 2022 were reasonably accurate. Not to mention that while they didn’t get a red wave, the Republicans did win enough to take back the House. What’s more, Mike DeWine and Ron DeSantis won reelection by huge margins after signing restrictive heartbeat laws in their states.
It’s also worth noting that in 2016-2020 the polls underestimated Trump’s vote share in most states, most likely because he pulls more low-propensity voters out of the woodwork that the polls’ weighting algorithms don’t account for. This year, he has been leading pretty consistently across all the pollsters for the whole year, and in states where the same polls are showing the Democratic senate candidate handily beating the Republican candidate.
Maybe the public polls are all wrong, but there has been lots of reporting that the campaign’s internal polls are just as bad, if not worse. The fact that many Democratic politicians seem panicked about Biden staying in the race would indicate they believe what the polls are telling them.
What I would not trust at this point are polls of hypothetical matchups between Trump and Kamala/Whitmer/Newsom, etc. These are going to have a lot more variability in them and opportunity for improvement with time and name recognition as opposed to Biden, for whom people’s opinions are fixed in amber at this point.