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Duane Moore

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by Duane Moore

  1. Apparently Barron’s going to NYU https://www.thedailybeast.com/we-hear-barron-trump-will-attend-nyu
  2. I’m too lazy to go look them up but I think there have been similar profiles in the last two weeks in NYT, WaPo, and WSJ.
  3. The Joementum is real! In all seriousness, I know national polls only mean so much and a NPV tie will be an EC loss for Biden, but these tossup polls are relevant because they are giving the Biden camp ammunition for their argument to stay in the race. The longer it looks like he has a shot, the harder it is for anyone to force him out. It’s only July, and making up 2-3 points between now and November is a lot more realistic than having to make up 5-7.
  4. The Lord Almighty Or the next best thing
  5. Then what are we worrying about? He’s probably up by 10 and cruising to re-election. Well good thing there won’t be any of those thirds on the ballot
  6. This is correct. We’ve never had an election where the public’s opinions of both candidates is so fixed and set in stone. In a normal election a performance like that would have dropped Biden 5-10 points in a week. I was thinking 2-4 points given the dynamic we’ve seen all year, but he’s currently only dropped 1.8 points in the RCP average from the day of the debate. It’s what’s giving him a real argument to stay in.
  7. Stringing this into next week, running out the clock. But counter-programming the RNC?
  8. They’ll have plenty of fire trained on Kamala, because even if Joe stays at the top of the ticket, people understand he won’t stay there for four years if they win. Thread title out front should have told you. That’s the problem, nobody can agree on who that is. What does it say about how people on Capitol Hill regard Kamala’s chances that they haven’t coalesced around her when they obviously think Biden has no shot?
  9. It’s elder abuse at this point.
  10. Interesting that the drumbeat of Joe has got to go has picked up again today. I thought they’d at least keep their powder dry until the Big Boy press conference tomorrow. Watch that CBC meeting. If they turn on him, he’s done.
  11. This is where I am. I remember all the Romney supporters wanting to “unskew the polls” back in 2012 and then they turned out pretty accurate. Any one poll can be dismissed as an outlier, that certainly happens, and some pollsters are more reputable than others to be sure, but when you have lots of polls telling you roughly the same thing over time, it’s foolish to ignore them.
  12. If you’ve got that tweet from Wasserman, please post it. Best I could find was the final Cook projections: 15-30 seats is not a red wave and they had 36 seats as tossups, so more broke for D’s than R’s.
  13. lol, this video is wild: Pelosi: We love Joe and will support him however he decides Lemire: he’s said he’s decided and he’s running Pelosi: whatever he decides, we’ll support him
  14. I’d be leery of just disregarding the polls and relying on Dobbs to carry the day everywhere. My recollection of the 2022 midterms was that people were expecting a red wave due to historical trends of a party’s typical midterm results for a new president and Biden’s low approval rating that had begun after the Afghanistan withdrawal, but that the polls themselves weren’t showing a wave coming. The Nate Silvers and 538’s of the world claim that in most cases the polls for 2022 were reasonably accurate. Not to mention that while they didn’t get a red wave, the Republicans did win enough to take back the House. What’s more, Mike DeWine and Ron DeSantis won reelection by huge margins after signing restrictive heartbeat laws in their states. It’s also worth noting that in 2016-2020 the polls underestimated Trump’s vote share in most states, most likely because he pulls more low-propensity voters out of the woodwork that the polls’ weighting algorithms don’t account for. This year, he has been leading pretty consistently across all the pollsters for the whole year, and in states where the same polls are showing the Democratic senate candidate handily beating the Republican candidate. Maybe the public polls are all wrong, but there has been lots of reporting that the campaign’s internal polls are just as bad, if not worse. The fact that many Democratic politicians seem panicked about Biden staying in the race would indicate they believe what the polls are telling them. What I would not trust at this point are polls of hypothetical matchups between Trump and Kamala/Whitmer/Newsom, etc. These are going to have a lot more variability in them and opportunity for improvement with time and name recognition as opposed to Biden, for whom people’s opinions are fixed in amber at this point.
  15. This is the image that comes to mind for me with the Democrats succession problem (and no, I’m not comparing Biden to Stalin as any kind of moral equivalent):
  16. The election explained in one chart:
  17. Yeah, my text from the post got screwed up but this is a trend I’ve been seeing in polls lately. Voters have more favorable approval ratings of Trump’s term than Biden’s. We’ve never had an election where you can compare 4 years of one candidate versus the other’s 4 years, and the comparison is not going well for Biden. It showed up in that AARP poll of Wisconsin that came out today as well.
  18. What do you think has changed with Sark? It seemed like he had this process well in hand the last few years. Does he just not trust the other coaches besides Banks? Tashard Choice has certainly proven himself, and Flood has done pretty well too.
  19. Wait, are we allowed to believe that there will be elections in 2028 on the Doom Thread?
  20. There was an Emerson poll of Wisconsin yesterday that had Trump up 3. Trump’s been up in 3 of the 4 post-debate polls of Wisconsin. And he’s out performed his polling there in 2016 and 2020.
  21. Hear me out - DNC about to nominate Biden at the convention, when “Fight Song” starts playing over the PA system. John King yells, “By God, that’s Hillary Clinton’s music!”
  22. The beatings will continue until morale improves
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